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Wednesday November 5, 2008 - 20:27:45 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for November 6, 2008
Far East Open:
- Thursday sees major monetary policy decisions from the BOE and ECB. Markets feel interest rate cuts by both are a sure thing. The BOE is expected to cut at least by 50bps to 4.00%. Recent speculation has been building for -75 or -100 bps ease. The ECB is most likely seen cutting by -50bps to 3.25%. Speculation about a larger cut is likely misplaced. The Trichet press comments will be key.
- On Wednesday, the markets had to digest the Obama victory in the U.S. Tuesday. The Democrat party also gained strong majorities in the House and Senate. He did not get Senate filibuster-proof control. That would have required 60 seats. Financial markets took some comfort from this, as it could contain some of the more radical left-wing ideas.
- Asian bourses rallied on the back of the Tuesday U.S. gain. European bourses fell on a sell the fact reaction today. The current call is for sharply lower share prices on the close. U.S. Bond prices are mixed. It is just a matter of time until they start to break under the weight of massive future government borrowing.
- It is interesting that Volcker is seen as a savior by many. His tenure as Fed Chief was notable for the bitter medicine he dispensed to the economy to break the back of inflation. The earlier Volcker strongly opposed excessive government spending. During his time, the USD traded off bond prices.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -113 bps +2 bps. U.S. bond prices are mixed. E-Z bond prices closed better.
- The USD is mixed vs. the EUR, GBP and CHF. The JPY is stronger. The AUD, CAD and NZD are weaker. Gold and oil are softer. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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