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Thursday November 6, 2008 - 11:24:58 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Corporate earnings, economic data hint for larger European interest rate cuts today

Today 06:19am

European Market Update: Corporate earnings, economic data hint for larger European interest rate cuts today


- (SP) Spanish Sept Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -8.8% v -5.4%e; Output NSA Y/Y: -4.5% v -11.0% prior

- (DE) Danish Sept Industrial Production Ex Ships M/M: 0.4% v -2.4% prior. Industrial Orders Ex Ships M/M: -2.9% v -3.9% prior

- (NE) Dutch Oct CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.8%e

- (SW) Swedish Sept Industrial Production M/M: -2.0% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -4.9% v -1.2%e

- (SW) Swedish Sept Industrial Orders M/M: -4.7% v -8.3% prior; Y/Y: -7.2% v -12.8% prior

- (UK) Oct HBOS House Prices M/M: -2.2% v -1.5%e; 3M/Y: -13.7% v -13.3%e

- (IC) Iceland Sedlbanki Interest Rate Decision: Leaves interest rates unchanged at 18.00%, as expected

- (BZ) Brazil Oct FGV Inflation IGP- DI: 1.09% v 1.00%e


- In equities, Toyota [TM] reported Q2 Net ¥139.8B below estimates of ¥276.6B with , Revenues of ¥5.98T compared to forecasts of ¥5.81T. Toyota lowered its FY net forecast to ¥550B from ¥1.25T prior view and cuts F its FY08 global vehicle sales est to 8.24M from 8.74M prior view. || InBev [INB.BE] Reported Q3 Net €447B below consensus estimates of €541Me. It revenues were in line at €3.95B versus €3.94B estimates. Q3 total sales growth was 1.9%. The company expected prices to grow at the slower pace and noted that derivatives use had not been excessive and market volatility had limited impact on liquidity || Axa [CS.FR] Reported 9 month Rev of €69.5B versus €68.9B estimates || KBC [KBC.BE] Reported Q3 Net loss €906M v loss €910Me || Deutsche telecom [DTE.GE] Reports Q3 Net €895M v €899Me, Rev €15.45B v €15.42Be; backs 2009 outlook targets. T-Mobile Int. Q3 EBITDA €3.03 v €2.93Be, Rev €9.03B v €9.06Be. The company saw 2008 free cash flow at €6.6B || Altana [ALT.GE] Reported Q3 Net €32.4M in line with estimates of €32.3M., Revenues were €350.7M versus €351.7M estimates; Skion offered €13/shr to acquire remainder of company || Adidas [ADS.GE] Reported Q3 Net €302M compared to €321M estimates. Rev €3.08B v €3.05Be. The company withdraws its FY09 guidance citing 'uncertain economy' || Aegon [AGN.NV] Reported Q3 Underlying EBIT €500M (Mainly affected by lower equity markets and mortality experience ), Net -€329M v -€116.7Me || Tomkins [TOMK.UK: Guided FY08 toward lower end of prior expectations due to deteriorating market conditions || Tate & Lyle [TATE.UK] Reported H1 Net £64M below estimates of £83.5Me, however, revenues of £1.70B were above consensus of £1.44B estimates. It stated that that food and industrial ingredients continue to perform well. Sugar markets continued to remain volatile, expects improvements in H2 || Bovis Homes [BVS.UK] Provided interim management report in which it stated that FY08 results remained in line with expectations || Royal Sun [RSA.UK] Reported Q3 Net Written Premiums £4.9B , +11% y/y || Vodapone [VOD.UK] To purchase additional 15% stake in Vodacom (private South African company) for approx £1.4B from Telkom. Vodapne would increases its stake to 65% from 50% prior. The transaction is expected to be enhancing to adjusted earnings per share from the first year post acquisition excluding the impact of intangible asset amortization.

- In speakers overnight, French Finance Minister Lagarde stated that France lowered its 2009 growth forecast to range of 0.2 to 0.5% from 1.0% prior view, Cuts inflation forecast for 2009 to 1.5% from 2% prior Hungarian Fin Min Veres: Expects to reach final EU loan agreement next week ||Hungarian Fin Min Veres: Expects to reach final EU loan agreement next week.

- In Currencies: The USD maintained its recent 24 hour range against the European pairs ahead of the European interest rate decisions.

- Fixed Income: Strong bid-to-cover in the French OAT auction prompted some rotation out of equities into bonds ahead of the NY morning. France sold €1.22B 4% 2014's, avg yield 3.52%, bid-to-cover 2.37x; sold €2.49B 4% 2018's, avg yield 4.18%, bid-to-cover 1.58x; sold €1.51B 4.25% 2018's avg yield 4.28%, bid-to-cover 3.06x and sold €750M 4% 2038's, avg yield 4.62%, bid-to-cover 5.15x

- Energy: IEA World Energy Outlook Report: Expected global oil demand to reach 106M bpd, down 10M BPD from prio view. It did note that oil price could exceed $200 by 2030. It noted that $26 Trillion is need for energy investments through 2030; up $4T from prior report || BP [BP.UK] To end its planned wind power projects in India, China and Turkey; to focus efforts on US onshore generation. Plans to have 1 gigawatt of wind power in US by end 2008 and increase it to 3 gigawatt over the next few years

- Credit Crisis: China PBoC Gov and Finance Minister to attend G-20 financial summit on Nov 15th in Washington DC || Vice Fin Min Sugimoto: G20 will consider methods through which it can 'beef up' the financial system ||


- Global equity markets did not share the enthusiasm of Barak Obama's victory in the US Presidential election as the markets focus the real issues concerning the global economic outlook and resolution of the global credit crunch and financial market crisis. The news continues to be subdued on the corp earnings front, economic data and consumer sentiment. Dealers and traders noting the Cisco guidance after yesterday's close, Toyoda lowering of its global sales forecast. The Monster Employment Index fell to 150 versus 160, which is down 20% from year ago levels. Russia's PMI Russia Service Oct PMI falls to 47.4 from 55.5 in Sept. lastly Morgan Stanley analyst cuts its outlook for Goldman Sachs and raised outlook for GS write downs

- The focus in the NY morning will be on the European interest rate decisions. BOE is expected to cut its rates by 50bps to 4.00%. There are some banks and former BOE members suggesting even more aggressive action by the MPC. The ECB is also expected to cut by 50bps to 3.25%.

- Looking Ahead:

- 6:00 (GE) German Sept Factory Orders M/M: % v -2.3%e; Y/Y: % v -3.2%

- 7:00 (UK) BoE Interest Rate Decision. Consensus expectations are for a 50bps cut. Current base rate is 4.50%

- 7:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision. Consensus expectations are a 50bps cut. Current base rate is 3.25%

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept Building Permits. Consensus expectations are -1.0% ; The prior number was -13.5%

- 8:30 (US) Q3 Preliminary Non-farm Productivity. Consensus expectations are 0.7%; The prior number was 4.3%

- 8:30 (US) Q3 Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. Consensus expectations are 3.0% ; The prior number was -0.5%

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Nov 1. Consensus expectations are 477k ; The prior number was 479k

- 8:30 (US) Continuing Claims w/e Oct 25. Consensus expectations are 3.743M ; The prior number was 3.715M

- 10:00 (CA) Canadian Oct Ivey Purchasing Managers Index. Consensus expectations are 55.0 ; The prior number was 61.0



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