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Friday November 7, 2008 - 10:32:02 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y. Open for November 7, 2008
New York Open
- The USD is generally lower heading into the October U.S. employment report at 13:30 GMT. Jobs are expected to have fallen by -200K in the month. There are estimates for even a worse outcome. The markets know already that the economy is weak, but the data will indicate how weak it really is. The so-called â€śwhisper numberâ€ť is for -250K.
- Canadian employment data (expect -10,000 loss in jobs) are due at 12:00 GMT. The aggressive 150bp BOE rate cut yesterday surprised everyone and in perverse way confirmed the weak state of the global economy.
- Asian bourses closed mixed to weaker on the back of the Thursday U.S. losees. We have to assunme a weak U.S. jobs figure has already been priced in. European bourses have gained, The current call for the U.S. open is for higher.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -114 bps -4 bps. U.S. bond prices are mixed. E-Z bond prices are weaker.
- The USD is lower vs. the EUR, GBP and CHF. The JPY is better. The AUD, CAD and NZD are mostly better. Gold and oil are up. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 19 Mar 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
Thu 22 Mar 2018
AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Mar 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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