- In equities, Munich Re [MUV2.GE] reported a net profit of â‚¬7M, a fraction of
analysts' expectations for â‚¬112M. The troubled insurance giant lowered its
full-year outlook, stating that it was unlikely to meet its target of â‚¬2B in
net profits in 2009, although it said it expected to maintain its dividend at
â‚¬5.50 for the year and follow through with it stock buyback program. The
company is committed to returning over â‚¬8B to shareholders by 2010. || Sodexho
[SW.FR] reported full-year profit and revenue in line with estimates and raised
the dividend by 10%. || LaFarge [LG.FR] had a good Q3, reporting profit and
revenue above consensus but would not confirm its FY10 targets, noting that the
business environment was deteriorating. The company said it was limiting CAPEX
to â‚¬2B in the year and expend its divestment program beyond the â‚¬18B target to
provided financial flexibility. || Belgacom [BELG.BE] Reported Q3 Net â‚¬215M
versus â‚¬207M estimates with revenues of â‚¬1.46B against â‚¬1.48B estimates. It
guided it FY revenue down 12% y/y. Firm stated it was interested in making
'attractive in market deals' and in 'solid financial position' as it holds free
cash of â‚¬457M as of Sept. Lastly it saw costs of employee restructuring plans
to rise | EADS [EAD.FR] EAD.FR: Reportedly had 71 aircraft orders canceled in
Oct compared to 9 new orders - French press || British Airways [BAY.UK} Reports
H1 Net of a loss Â£49M compared to profit estimate of Â£64M. However, revenues
were Â£4.74B above Â£4.57B estimates. The company raised its FY revenue guidance
to +4% compared +3% prior. Oct Load factor 72.6% v 73.7% y/y. || Daimler
[DAI.GE] DAI.GE: Reports Oct Mercedes-Benz cars sales at 93.8K, down 18% y/y;
YTD sales up 2% || BMW [BMW.GE] Reported Oct Vehicle sales 113K (-8.3% y/y),
YTD sales +0.7%.
- In speakers, the ECB's Liikanen stated that the markets expect interbank
rates to fall and that the decline in Euribor is 'key'. He hinted that an ECB
interest rate cut is possible in December|| PM Brown stated that the recent
round of global interest rate cuts should be followed by stimulus packages. He
added that rate cuts must be passed on to the consumer . Lastly he advised
world leaders to reject any calls for protectionism within their economies ||
Indonesian Central Bank the recent drop in Rupiah was the result of scarcity of
- In Currencies: The overall USD and the JPY price action continues to be
dictated by equity index moves. The strong recovery in the Nikkei from session
lows enable some profit-taking in various short-term proprietary desks with
GBP-related pairs leading the way. GBP/USD rebounded from Asian session lows of
1.5540 to probe back above 1.58 ahead of the NY morning. EUR/USD firmer by 100
pips at 1.2810. || ECB's Liikanen reitereated central bank view that a December
Rate Cut was possible at the ECB. Growing evidence seems t be supporting this
view. The Sept Euro-Zone future inflation gauge had largest one-month decline
in 7-years and now stands at a 16 month low. Dealer chatter that perhaps the
ECB could cut rates by as much as 50bps at the next meeting ||
- Fixed income, in dealers note that German yield curve steepens at highest
level since Q4 2004. Spread between German 2-year and 30-year instruments at
- In energy, the Israel
military option on Iran
not ruled out according to media comments from Israeli Defense Minister Ehud
Barak. The minister reportedly stated had rule out any options and added that Israel
recommend others nations do not rule out any option either on the topic of
Iranian nuclear enrichment program. Comments attributed to post meeting
interview with journalists after Minister Barak meet with US Sec of State Rice
||Algeria's Sonatrach CEO stated that he would like to see oil price in a range
of $80-$100/bbl. Noted that they would cut output by 71K bpd from 1.3M bpd in
line with OPEC's move. Expected production to reach 2M bpd output by 2010 and added
that no delays in oil projects were anticipated until 2013.
- In the credit crisis, the ECB's Oct Lending Survey: banks tighten net credit
standards further in Q3 citing economic outlook for such action. Expects
further tightening of credit in Q4.Banks increased margins on loans to firms.
Demand for loans fell considerably in Q3||Philippine Central bank lowered
reserve requirements || The London interbank offered rate for three-month loans
fell to 2.39% 4.82% highs seen back on Oct. 10. Libor remains some 139 basis
points above the Fed's benchmark The 5-year average is roughly 22 basis points
prior to the onslaught of the global credit crisis in August 2007.
- Overall market is subdued ahead of the US
nonfarm payroll report for October. The topic of discussion has centered on the
continuing trend towards global zero interest rate policy. Thus the world in
as it converges towards the BOJ rate although some central banks are proceeding
at their own pace. Thus the market is encountering a split personality between
the pending economic doom against the hope that the global liquidity action and
interest rate cuts will work their magic over time. Central banks are betting
that negative real interest rates would induce people to spend rather than save
money that is declining in value. With that we are now entering a period of
data that will now gauge of the extent of recessionary forces in post-Lehman
world. Dealers noting that a 'bad' US Nonfarm payroll number seems to be priced
in at this point with expectations at -200K in the month. There are estimates
for even a worse outcome. The markets know already that the economy is weak,
but the data will indicate how weak it really is. The so-called whisper number
is for -250K. Canadian employment also expected data with a -10K expected.
- (CA) Canadian Oct Unemployment
Rate. Consensus expectations are 6.2%; The prior number was 6.1%
- 7:00 (CA) Canadian Net change in Employment. Consensus expectations are -10.0k
; The prior number was -106.9k
- (US) Oct Change in Nonfarm
Payrolls. Consensus expectations are -200k; The prior number was -159k
- (US) Oct Unemployment Rate.
Consensus expectations are 6.2%; The prior number was 6.1%
- (US) Oct Average Hourly
Earnings. M/M consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number was 0.2%. Y/Y
Consensus expectations are 3.5%; the prior number was 3.4%.
- 8:30 (US) Oct Average Weekly Hours. Consensus expectations are 33.6; The
prior number was 33.6
- 11:30 (US)
Sept Pending Home sales MoM: -3.4% expected v 7.4% prior
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
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