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Monday December 13, 2004 - 20:33:57 GMT
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DOLLAR STRUGGLES AGAIN AHEAD OF FOMC

The Greenback failed to maintain ground both overnight and into the N.Y. session even with a positive release of Retail Sales (expected -.1 and actual +.1) at the N.Y start. Euro grinded higher for most of the morning and into N.Y. lunch taking out short term stops above 1.3300/05 and putting in a high of 1.3310/15 before retreating. Dollar/Jpy sank in the same fashion from overnight highs of 105.10/15 to session lows of 104.60/65. This sell off was met by profit taking where the sellers from Friday’s high (106.15/20) were taking profit ahead of tomorrows FOMC meeting. Tomorrows FOMC meeting will be less a focal point than usual only because the market has fully built in a 25bps move and there is broad expectation that the Fed will retain the “measured approach” language. The next meeting is on February 2 and they will have plenty of time to prepare the market for any shift in stance. Tomorrow morning at 8:30 EST there is the release of U.S trade numbers that should get the Dollar moving early and give it some direction for the remainder of the year.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING Euro has provided higher lows on a 60 minute chart and is sitting above its 30 and 120 hr moving averages. The 200 hr moving average is sitting at 1.3331. There is trend line resistance that was broken at 1.3295/1.3300 on this 60 minute chart. This support now (1.3295) is the next pivot for the Euro. The Relative Strength Index is waning with a reading of 58.56. The next resistance is 1.3350/60 and the near term support beneath the 1.3290/95 level comes in at 1.3230/40.

GAIN AN EDGE We look to buy Euro on a dip to 1.3260 and 1.3240 with a stop below 1.3200 and a take profit of 1.3335.

 

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