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Monday November 10, 2008 - 10:33:11 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y. Open for November 11, 2008
New York Open
- China has announced a nearly USD 600bln domestic economic stimulus program. Some of the items had been previously announced, but the bulk of the spending is new. The announcement gave Far East bourses a lift. In the U.S., the government has made the terms of the AIG bailout less onerous and made more funds available. Both developments take a bit more financial risk off the table.
- European bourses are higher in the wake of the news, while U.S. bourses are seen opening higher. U.S. treasury markets will close early today ahead of the Veteranâ€™s Day holiday on Tuesday. U.S. stock markets will be operational.
- Dealers are already starting to speculate what will come out of the G20 meeting this weekend. The markets could be disappointed if no coordinated economic stimulus plan is launched.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -111 bps -4 bps. U.S. bond prices are weaker. E-Z bond prices have fallen as well.
- The USD is lower vs. the EUR, GBP and CHF. The JPY is weaker on diminished risk aversion. The AUD, CAD and NZD are sharply higher after the China news. Gold and oil are up. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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