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Monday November 10, 2008 - 10:33:11 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y. Open for November 11, 2008
New York Open
- China has announced a nearly USD 600bln domestic economic stimulus program. Some of the items had been previously announced, but the bulk of the spending is new. The announcement gave Far East bourses a lift. In the U.S., the government has made the terms of the AIG bailout less onerous and made more funds available. Both developments take a bit more financial risk off the table.
- European bourses are higher in the wake of the news, while U.S. bourses are seen opening higher. U.S. treasury markets will close early today ahead of the Veteranâ€™s Day holiday on Tuesday. U.S. stock markets will be operational.
- Dealers are already starting to speculate what will come out of the G20 meeting this weekend. The markets could be disappointed if no coordinated economic stimulus plan is launched.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -111 bps -4 bps. U.S. bond prices are weaker. E-Z bond prices have fallen as well.
- The USD is lower vs. the EUR, GBP and CHF. The JPY is weaker on diminished risk aversion. The AUD, CAD and NZD are sharply higher after the China news. Gold and oil are up. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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