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Forex Research - Euro Rises as Chinese Announce Major Stimulus Package

Euro Rises as Chinese Announce Major Stimulus Package Last Updated 11/10/2008 5:20:41 AM EST (GMT +5)

Price Action

  • USD/JPY very quiet around 99.00 handle despite much better risk appetite
  • AUD/USD trades to 6900 on better equity flows but capped for the moment by downside growth revisions from RBA
  • GBP/USD 1.5700 continues to act as support, Darling tax cut looks mildly positive
  • EUR/USD 1.2800 key pivot butbuyer prevail as risk appetite improves

    Euro Rises as Chinese Announce Major Stimulus Package

    EUR/USD pushed higher at the start of the week on much better risk appetite flows after Chinese authorities announced a major stimulus package for the next two years which could equal up to 15% of the country’s GDP The Chinese officials announced plans to spend up to $600 Billion to prop up consumer spending and increase investment into infrastructure projects in hopes of maintaining growth at near double digit rates for the world’s fourth largest economy.

    The announcement sparked a massive rally in Asian stocks with Nikkei jumping 5% and Shanghai rising more than 7% as equity investors cheered the news. In the currency market the appetite for risk translated into demand for EURUSD as the unit rose to within striking distance of the 1.2900 handle before coming off the highs. The news out of China benefits the euro in several ways. First by possibly increasing demand for German machinery for future infrastructure projects and secondly by pressuring the greenback as Chinese officials channel their massive savings away from dollar denominated debt instruments towards more domestic demand.

    On the economic front, the week is off to a slow start with little significant data on the docket. Industrial Production in the EZ continues to weaken with French numbers contracting -0.5% and Italian production falling -2.1%. Currency traders however, have priced most of this bad news into the market and it had minimal affect on trade tonight.

    Cable on the other hand recorded a more volatile session, as it bounced between 1.5650 and 1.5850 for most of the Asian and early European trade. UK PPI compressed at the fastest rate ever with input PPI dropping a whopping -5.6% from the month prior. Typically such news would have had a serious negative impact on the currency and the unit did weaken in the aftermath of the release. However, the sharp drop in the PPI level may actually prove stimulative to the UK economy in long run and certainly provides further scope for the BoE to ease rates in the near future.

    Overall we continue to forecast range conditions in the FX market, as traders attempt to gain visibility into the year end. This week in particular, with little meaningful economic data on the calendar may prove to be consolidative. As to the North American session, in the absence of economic news equity flows will likely dictate the flow in FX. If US equities fail to follow through on the gains in Asia and Europe, the euro will likely unwind back below 1.2800.

    FX Upcoming

    CAD13:158:15CAD Housing Starts205.0K217.6K
    CAD13:308:30CAD New Housing Price Index-0.1%0.0%

  • About The Author

    Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

    DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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