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Monday November 10, 2008 - 11:36:12 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: China stimulus package brings some risk appetite back; Spain's Santander announces capital raise

Today 05:58am

European market Update: China stimulus package brings some risk appetite back; Spain's Santander announces capital raise

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (JP) Oct Preliminary Machine tool orders: -40.4% v -20.1% prior

- (SZ) Swiss Oct SECO Consumer Climate: -27 v -25e

- (FR) French Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.4%

- (FR) French Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.8% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -2.5% v -2.4%e

- (CZ) Czech Oct CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.0% v 6.2%

- (CZ) Czech Oct Unemployment Rate: 5.2% v 5.1%e

- (IT) Italian Sept Industrial Production M/M: -2/1% v -1.6%e; Y/Y wda: -5/7% v -3.7%e; Nsa Y/Y: -0.4% v 2.4%e

- (NO) Norwegian Oct CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.2%e

- (NO) Norwegian Oct CPI Underlying M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.1%

- (NO) Norwegian Oct Producer Prices M/M: -1.3% v -1.8%e; Y/Y: 26.0% v 25.3%

- (UK) Oct PPI Input NSA M/M: -5.6% v -2.5%e; Y/Y: 13.8% v 18.0%e% (Note: largest MoM fall on record)

- (UK) Oct PPI Output M/M: -1.0% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.8%% v 7.4%e (Note: largest MoM drop on record)

- (UK) Oct PPI Output Core NSA M/M: -0.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.9%% v 5.1%e

- (EU) Sentix Investor Confidence: -36.4 v -33.

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

-Equities: Santander [SAN.SP] Announced a capital increase. To issue 1.6B new shares (€7B) to increase firm's core capital ratio to 7% from 6.3% prior ||HSBC [HSBA.UK] Provided an interim management report. It noted that Q3 US Consumer bad loans were $4.3B above analysts estimates of $3.7B. However it stated that it saw Q3 pre-tax profit above 2007 levels and a Tier 1 capital ratio 8.9% ||Syngentia [SYNN.SZ] Acquired Argentine Seeds Company; financial terms not disclosed || Bilfinger Berger [GBF.GE] Reported Q3 net €54M versus €51M estimates. The company reaffirmed its FY08 Net guidance of €185M compared to consensus estimates of €164.4M. || Allianze [ALV.GE] Reported on Friday (after the close) its Q3 Net income €545M v €782Me, operating profit €1.81B, R€21.1B v €19.2Be. Its CFO stated that it could see a Q4 €1.0B in writedown if equity markets do not recover by end of year and added that it would not use German government rescue plan || cable & Wireless [CW.UK] Reported H1 Pretax profit £129M versus estimates of £149M. Revenues were £1.6B in line with forecasts of £1.64Be. Company guided FY08/09 EBITDA £780M v £738.3Me and noted that it would increase its interim dividend by 13% to 2.83 pence/shr. || Dignity [DTY.UK] Reported 9-month Op profit (ex items) of £40.1M compared to year-ago levels of £36.3M and revenues of £130.7M versus £119.2M y/y. The co. said that the Group was performing well and was in line with expectations for the full year. || CG Veritas [GA.FR} made a $310M offer for Norway's Wavefield Inseis in an all stock deal. CG Veritas offered 1 share for 7 Wavefield shares || C&C Group [CCR.UK] Appointed John Dunsmore as CEO || Xstrata [XTA.UK] Anounced suspension of 6 ferrochrome furnaces at S. Africa jv until further notice. The suspension would result in reduction Ferrochrome production by 80K tones ||

- Speakers: ECB's Trichet noted that the Central Bank was not changing monetary policy mandate and reiterated that inflation remained top priority. He added that emerging economies remained resilient || ECB's Nowotny: Data suggests that USD strength should subside and added that no risk of deflation is foreseen within the Euro zone. He did not expect significant changes in Euro/Swiss Francs exchange ratio || EU's Juncker: Reiterated his view that the global economic situation remained serious and will continue || The head of IG Metall signaled that the union may seek a compromise with companies || Polish Central banker noted that its Interest rate policy would be adjusted to slowing economic growth || Morgan Stanley analyst cut its 2009 China GDP view to 7.5% from 8.2% prior ||

- In Currencies: The USD was mixed against the majors in a quiet European morning. For the most part dealers are eyeing the recent consolidation range in EUR/USD pair with 1.2700 viewed as critical hourly support and 1.3000 at resistance since late Oct. ECB's Nowotny noted that the data suggested that USD strength should subside. Carry-related crosses were firmer aided by the Chinese stimulus package announcement. A degree of risk appetite emerged. EUR/JPY up 60 pips at 127.60 and EUR/CHF up 30 pips at 1.5100. Commodity prices were firmer in the session with oil up around $3/barrel and Copper firmer by 12.5 cents in its dec contract. Thus CAD and AUD were firmer as a result of the higher energy and basic material metals. Dealers are already starting to speculate what would come out of the G20 meeting this coming weekend. The markets could be disappointed if no coordinated economic stimulus plan is announced.

- Fixed Income: Yield yield in Both Europe and US flattened on the back of increase appetite in risk following the Chinese stimulus package. US 2-year note at 1.38% wtht the 10-year yield at 3.83%; The German 2-year Schatz yielding 2.47% compared to 3.73% in the 10-year bund. lastly in the UK the 2-year note yielding 2.54% and the 10-year Gilt at 4.23%.



- Energy: Shanghai raised the price of natural gas for household use by 19% to CNY2.5/cub meter, effective today || Total [FP.FR] TOT: Reportedly decided to go ahead with large China gas project along with PetroChin Cos. are close to giving the go-ahead to develop a major natural gas block in northwestern China, after exploration and evaluation lasting two and a half years.

- Credit Crisis: London Times reported that banks are seeking to ban businesses from borrowing on an overnight basis in a move to limit default risks. The banks have been creating secret “black-lists” to ban businesses from overnight borrowing and these lists contain hundreds of clients. The companies on the list could include international trading and commodities companies. || UAE Central Bank Gov noted that the global economic crisis was now impacting the Emirates and that the country would do everything to avoid a prolong contraction during crisis. However, he added that did not see the crisis impacting GCC monetary union.

***Notes***

Some renewed risk appetite returned fueled by the announcement of a China stimulus package characterized the European session. This helped the Asian stock markets to close broadly higher. The China package would focus on its infrastructure and would take time to implement. Dealers noting that perhaps the recent phase of deleveraging and liquidations has ceased but the continued release of poor economic data to continue The Australian central bank (RBA) signaled that more interest rate cuts are likely after lowering their GDP and inflation outlook. The emerging markets continue to be of focus for any potential domino effect. Latvia's Parex Banka, the largest independent Baltic bank, had been taken over by the Latvian govt taking 51% stake after panicking clients withdrew 60M lats ($109M) in deposits . Thus FX markets taking note of the pressure building for Russian currency devaluation. Lastly, the G20 finance ministers noted that the likely results of its upcoming weekend summit would be more regulation in the financial makrets

Looking Ahead:

- 8:15 (CA) Canadian Oct Housing Starts. Consensus expectations are 200k ; The prior number was 217.6k

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept New Housing Price. Consensus expectations are -0.1%; The prior number was 0.0%

- Speakers

- 9:30 (EU) ECB Chairman Jean Claude Trichet speaks in Brazil.

- 10:00 (US) Treasury's Kaskari speaks in New York about TARP

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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