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Tuesday November 11, 2008 - 11:11:50 GMT
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Forex Research - Euro Range bound as Equity Decline Spoils the Rally

Euro Range bound as Equity Decline Spoils the Rally Last Updated 11/11/2008 6:02:05 AM EST (GMT +5)

Price Action

  • USD/JPY drifts to 97.60 as equities slide, but rallies back to 98.00 on improvement in risk as night wears on
  • AUD/USD hampered by horrid NAB data trading below 67.00 all night long
  • GBP/USD 1.5550 breaks on stop running as weak retail sales data weighs, Trade Balance improvement helps a bit
  • EUR/USD shakes off equity weakness as ZEW prints better and Eastern European demand support

    Euro Range bound as Equity Decline Spoils the Rally

    The EUR/USD tried to shrug off the weak performance in equity marketstoday by rallying for most of the early European session reaching a high of 1.2800 before trailing back to 1.2750 in generally quiet, lackluster trade.In late Asia the unit was mainly propped up by demand from Eastern Europe perhaps looking to diversify some long term positions but ultimately spot broke below the 1.2750 level as the decline in equities which were 2% lower than yesterday pressured the pair ahead of the North American open.

    On the economic front the ZEW survey printed a bit better than forecast at -53.5 vs. 62.5 expected but the positive impact was fleeting at best as traders simply viewed the data as a dead cat bounce off panic lows. Trading in the pair continues to be skittish as neither nor the bears have a convincing case for a rally with economic data from both regions generally horrid leaving range as the only profitable trade for the time being.

    The economic news out of the UK was not much better as the BRC retail index registered its worst performance in 3 years, actually recording an absolute drop form the year earlier. The reading was the worst result in 3 years and will no doubt cast a very negative light on the upcoming Christmas season for UK retailers. On a bit of a positive note UK Trade Balance improved slightly from -8.0 Billion forecast to print at -7.5 Billion but cable saw little support from the news and ultimately crumbled below 1.5550 as traders now project BoE rates to decline to 1.5% with the near future.

    With US on a quasi-holiday due to Veterans day, liquidity in the North American session is likely to be spotty and further weakness in stocks could pressure EUR/USD below the 1.2700 handle.However unless we see another rout in stocks, the downside in the pair appears to be limited as range conditions persist and any bid tone in equities could easily spark a short covering rally to 1.2800.

    FX Upcoming

    USD15:0010:00USD IBD/TIPP Economic OptimismN/A41.1

  • About The Author

    Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

    DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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