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Forex Blog - European market Update: German ZEW rises in Nov; China Oct Trade surplus rises for all the wrong reasons

Today 06:04am

European market Update: German ZEW rises in Nov; China Oct Trade surplus rises for all the wrong reasons


- (CH) China Oct trade Surplus: $35.3B v $30.0Be; Imports Y/Y: 15.6% v 19.0%e; Exports Y/Y: 19.2% v 18.1%e

- (GE) German Oct Wholesale Price Index M/M: -1.5% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 4.3%

- (CZ) Czech Sept industrial Output Y/Y: 9.6% v 5.8%e

- (HU) Hungary Oct CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.2%e

- (SW) Sweden Oct CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.0%e

- (SW) Sweden Oct CPI - Underlying Inflation M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.9%e

- (SW) Sweden Oct CPI Level: 305.56 v 305.57e

- (SW) Sweden Q3 Industry Capacity: 89.4% v 90.4% prior

- (UK) Sept Visible Trade Balance: -£7.5B v -£8.0Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£4.5B v -£4.95Be; Total Trade Balance: -£3.9B v -£4.7Be

- (UK) DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y: -5.1% v -5.4%e

- (GE) ZEW Survey Econ Sentiment: -53.5 v -63e; Current situation: 50.4 v -45e

- (EU) ZEW Survey Econ sentiment: -54.0 v -60.5e

- (SA) South African Manufacturing Prod M/M: -0.6% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 4.9% v 5.7%e


-Equities: Vodafone [VOD.UK] reported H1 EBITDA £7.24B compared to estiates of £7.31B. Its revenues came in at £19.9B in line with consensus of £19.84B. However, the company cut its FY Rev forecast to £38.8-39.7B from £39.8B prior|| Yell Group [YELL.UK] Reported H1 Net £85.2M compared to £83.8M y/y. CEO noted that global economic trends show no sign of improving; therefore, company is actively working on further cost reduction programs that will primarily benefit next year.|| J. Baer [BAER.SZ] Provided interim management report in which its net operating income through Oct was down by about 10% y/y. The bank stated that it had a sound balance sheet with a solid capital base with its BIS Tier 1 ratio at the targeted level of 12% under Basel II. It did experience some negative market impact on AUM.|| Taylor Whimpy [TW.UK] Provides interim report in which its H1 Orderbook came in at 6,607 homes versus 11,074 homes y/y. the company noted that it had cuts 1900 jobs YTD. It stated that conditions in the UK housing market have remained extremely challenging, with the recent events in the world financial markets further depressing customer confidence. CEO noted that it would not cut prices in line with competitors during the conf call. He added If co. did not receive refinancing it could consider selling parts of UK Land bank|| Tognum [TGM.GE] Reported Q3 Adj Net of €69M, which was up 35% y/y. its EBIT came in at €124M (+29% y/y). the compant reaffirmed its FY08 guidance with EBIT margin seen at the at lower end of 13-15% range. || RWE [RWE.GE] Reported 9-month Net of €2.21B above estimates of €1.92B. Its Op profit was €5.79B versus €5.38B estimates coupled with revenues at €34.45B compared to €34.15B concensus. RWE reaffirmed its FY outlook with sales likely to rise more than 10% over 2007 levels. Its prior forecast was for sales to rise 5-10%. || Northern Foods [NFDS.UK] reported H1 revenues £468.6M compared to estimates of £461.5M. Company noted that dining in is the new “dining out' and saw good acquisition opportunities over the next 18 months. || Intercontinental Hotels [IHG.UK] reported Q3 Net $91M compared to year ago levels of $127M and its Op profit $117M versus $140.8M estimates. Rev $486M versus $453M y/y. || E.On [EOA.GE] German Federal Court confirmed ban on co. acquired stake in German Municipal Utility Eschwege. Court stated that no appreciable competition between E.On and RWE and that s further muni purchases would limit competition

- Speakers: ZEW Schmidt- stated that th economic stimulus packages and central bank actions may have helped confidence levels as evident by today economic sentiment data. He added that central banks still have further room to cut rates. He noted that the German outlook is "bad" , but is unsure just how bad it is || ECB's Quaden: Global financial crisis negatively impacts economic outlook || China's PBoC sees new lending in 2008 above CNY4T; and reiterated its desire to maintain currency stability. The central bank added that its October new lending came in at CNY220B; while new lending YTD was around CNY3.7T. the PBoC would lend CNY100B for large projects. Lastly it reiterates to appropriately ease monetary policy || Italian Fin Min stated that it is possible to help the economy without impacting its budget. He added that Gov't support was for companies, not for banking sector || EU's Almunia reiterated that the interbank market rates were showing some modest improvements || UK PM Brown stated now is the moment to provide a fiscal stimulus to the economy and added that A fiscal stimulus is not a funded tax cut. He also vowed that the UK would work with credit card companies to establish fair rules for consumers. He added that one must avoid protectionism and work towards agreements to boost global trade

- In Currencies: The USD continues to consolidate in its triangle pattern from late Oct. Demand for EUR/GBP cross had been a supportive factor for EUR/USD during the European morning. EUR/GBP Cross hit an all-time high of 0.8214 || Dealers suggested that Russian central bank new rouble support was seen at the 30.70 to 30.71 area. The RUB currency weakened beyond the previously defended 30.41 mark earlier today. || Morgan Stanley analyst lowers UK 2009 GDP view to -0.3% from 0.0% prior.

- Fixed Income: US Banks will be closed for veterans holiday on Tuesday || Dealers noted that the US Benchmark yield curve widened out to 250 basis points on Monday, largest spread between the 2 and 10 year bond yield since Fall of 2003 || Nov 11th BOE: Mortgage interest rates fell in Oct

- Energy: Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Would participate in Nabucco project if asked to join. The Nabucco pipeline is a planned natural gas pipeline that will transport natural gas from Turkey to Austria, via Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary. || FT reports that Mexico is reportedly hedging nearly all of its crude oil exports from $70 per barrel amid selloff in energy || Chesapeake [CHK] Announces Marcellus Shale jv and strategic alliance with Norway's StatoilHydro in which StatoilHydro [STO] would acquire a 32.5% interest in Chesapeake's Marcellus Shale assets in Appalachia for $3.38B, leaving Chesapeake with a 67.5% working interest.

- Credit Crisis: The WSJ reported that the he Treasury's financial rescue plan was coming under pressure as more companies sought assistance. The article noted that the Treasury had committed all but $60B of the first $350B in funds granted by Congress under the TARP plan.|| Ciitigroup [C] C: Confirmed a new preemptive Initiatives to Help Homeowners Remain in Their Homes. The program will target 500K homeowners and is expected to result in workouts of about $20B || ECB allotted full €334.4B in 1-week refi operation at 3.25% in which 848 banks participated in 1-week refi operation. The amount allotted was €112B over estimated liquidity needs || Spain Econ Min Solbes noted that Santander {SAN.SP] rights issue was a "prudent, courageous" decision. || Credit Suisse analyst lowers its mid-2009 view on S&P 500 to 1,050 from 1,200 prior ||


German ZEW for Nov was mixed but the economic sentiment was 'better'. The ZEW noted that th Government rescue measures have helped contain the slide in confidence , but not yet in a position to determine whether measures are sufficient. European equity markets off some 2% or more ahead of the NY morning on continued concerns over the global economic outlook and corporate profit implications. ECB's Quaden joined the club in hinted at further monetary easing in December. In Asia the data continued to be weak. Japan's diffusion index lowest on record, and its bankruptcies rose to highest level in 5 years. China CPI came in at -0.3% m/m at 4.0% y/y. Thus the door for “aggressive” easing is open for the PBoC. The Chinese Oct trade surplus beat expectations but the lower import expectations suggested that this 'increase' was due to all the wrong reasons as it heightens global slowdown concerns. The Australian NAB business confidence fell to -29 vs -8 in Sept, which is an all time low.

Looking Ahead: - 10:00 (US) IBD/ TIPP Economic Optimism. Consensus expectations are 42.0; The prior number was 41.1.

- 9:00 (IT) Italian PM Berlusconi and Brazilian President Lula de Silva to hold press conference

- 9:00 (GE) IG Mettal and Gesamtmetall employers group hold fourth round of wage talks in Sindelfingen, Baden-Wuerttemberg

- 13:00 (GE) German Finance Minister Steinbrueck speaks in Berlin.



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