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Forex Research - Sterling Hits 12 Year Lows – 1.50 Next?

Sterling Hits 12 Year Lows – 1.50 Next? Last Updated 11/12/2008 5:37:38 AM EST (GMT +5)

Price Action

  • USD/JPY same old 97-98 range persists today as action takes place elsewhere
  • AUD/USD holds 6500 buffeted by equity flows, Westpac data lends support
  • GBP/USD hits 12 year lows and all time lows against euro as weak labor data weighs
  • EUR/USD rallies to 1.2600 but gives up gains as equity indices slip off highs

    Sterling Hits 12 Year Lows – 1.50 Next?

    The sterling index hit 12 year lows today with cable hitting 1.5321 in morning London trade after UK labor data showed a rise in jobless claims of 36.5K. Although the number was a tad less than expectations it was nevertheless the highest reading since the dark days of 1992 confirming the weakness of the UK economy.

    With cable coming dangerously close to the key 1.5000 level the temptation amongst speculators to push it below that barrier will no doubt accelerate if equity prices continue to slide. On the risk/no risk front in overnight trade today Nikkei ended lower, pushing EUR/USD below 1.2500 figure, but a short covering rally and a firmer European open sent the pair to a high of 1.2635. The gains however quickly evaporated as US stock index futures returned to neutral and risk aversion flows drove EUR/USD lower for most of the early European session.

    With no US economic reports on the calendar the key event for the day will likely center on Treasury Secretary Paulson’s briefing on the financial rescue package. We hold little hope that the Treasury Secretary will be able to infuse the market with fresh confidence, but with equities so grossly oversold, stock traders may latch onto any statement of additional funding to spark a short covering rally.

    With very little data on the economic front and thin market conditions continuing to dominate trade, currencies remain slaves to equity flows and will likely yoyo for the rest of the day based in the vagaries of DJIA. One key factor that has contributed to the downward spiral of the EUR/USD has been the complete collapse in oil prices. With euro 70% correlated to crude, the break below $60/bbl has weighed like an anchor on the single currency. While calling bottom in crude has been nothing but a sucker’s game for several months, today’s IEA report which warns of long term catastrophic shortages in global supply of the commodity may provide a modicum of support for crude and in turn could help EUR/USD rally from these levels. On the other hand another triple digit slaughter in equities could easily drag the pair towards the 1.2400 handle for a retest of recent lows.

    FX Upcoming


  • About The Author

    Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

    DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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