price action was a virtual rerun of the previous two days, with riskier currencies
holding their ground against the USD until the minute that US equity markets
opened. Equities fell heavily after US Treasury Secretary Paulson said that buying
toxic mortgage securities was no longer the best use of the $US700bn bail-out fund;
without a clear sense of how the funds will be used, investors retreated once more
from risky assets. The broad USD index gained around 0.5% for the day, and is closing
in again on the two-year highs reached in October.
held within a 0.57-0.58 range until the US
equity market open, then promptly dropped as low as 0.5560 before recovering
back to 0.5610 this morning. Trade in the NZD remains very thin and gappy and
is unlikely to improve as the Christmas period approaches.
slid from 0.6600 to a two-week low of 0.6350 during the New
York session. The NZD/AUD cross was
largely range-bound but ended the day on its highs around 0.8770.
fell early in the overnight session on talk of central banks
selling euro to rebalance their reserves portfolios, having earlier sold USD to
prop up their currencies. EUR was relatively stable during the NY session
though, and even eked out some small gains.
was hit hard after the Bank of Englandâ€™s inflation report noted
that inflation would severely undershoot the target in the absence of rate
cuts. The currency was trashed further on the weak US
equities, falling below 1.50 to reach a new eight-year low.
data to report. However a speech by outgoing Treasury
Secretary Paulson generated plenty of interest. He plans to divert part of the
$700bn TARP (financial rescue plan) away from troubled mortgage assets, instead
using it to help boost the availability of consumer credit. He remains
unwilling to use it as aid for the ailing automakers, which could lead to
problems getting the second tranche of the bailout package approved by
Congress, given that House speaker Pelosi wants immediate action in that area.
industrial production down 1.6% in Sep. We already knew
that German IP had fallen nearly 4% so this was no surprise. Output was down
2.4% yr, its steepest annual pace of decline since 2002.
signals further rate cuts. The BoEâ€™s quarterly inflation
report saw the central projection for the CPI revised down by the most ever in
the 11 years that the Bank has had policy independence. Also, the central
projection on a constant rate assumption in two years time was just 1%, a full
1% below the 2% target, the biggest forecast target â€śmissâ€ť in that time.
Governor King stressed that uncertainties were especially acute this time
around and they included unknowns like the extent of imminent fiscal stimulus.
Nevertheless markets interpreted the report and comments as a strong signal
that rates will be cut sharply further in December. In response to a question
about whether the bank rate could be cut to 0%, he said that â€ś we are prepared
to cut it to whatever level is necessaryâ€ť. The Bank now expects the UK
economy to be in recession until well into 2009. In related news, UK
unemployment rose a further 37k in October.
are neutral on NZD in the short term. News from the corporate world is dominating
investor sentiment at the moment, but we feel this should be at the least balanced
out by the extent of fiscal stimulus and other government support that is being
unleashed in the wake of the G20 meeting. Looking ahead, NZD will still need to
remain below its long-term average for an extended period to soften the blow of
a weaker world economy.
Release Last Forecast
NZ Q3 Real
Retail Sales â€“1.5% â€“1.5%
Sales 0.4% 0.6%
Aus Nov MI
Consumer Inflation Expectations 4.4% â€“
Unemployt Expectations 11.6% â€“
AWOTE %qtr 0.7% â€“
US Sep Trade
Balance $bn â€“59.1 â€“56.0
Jobless Claims w/e 8/11 481k 488k
Budget $bn â€“92.0 â€“
Corp. Goods Prices %yr 6.8% 5.5%
Ger Q3 GDP
%yr â€“0.5% â€“0.3%
Trade Balance C$bn 5.8 5.3
Economic Overview November 2008 (11 November)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (4 November)
â€˘ NZ Q3 HLFS
Review (6 November)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (4 November)
â€˘ NZ Q3 LCI
and QES Review (3 November)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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