User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday November 13, 2008 - 11:01:43 GMT
Trade the News Staff -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - European Market Update: Germany is 'officially' in recession; IEA slashes 2009 world oil demand on global recession concerns

Today 05:56am

European Market Update: Germany is 'officially' in recession; IEA slashes 2009 world oil demand on global recession concerns


- (GE) German Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.0%e; GDP NSA: 1.6% v 1.6%; First recession in 4 years

- (FR) French Oct CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.6%e

- (FR) French Oct CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.9%e

- (FR) French CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 118.49 v 118.31e

- (FR) French Sept Current Account: -€4.0B v -€3.8Be

- (SZ) Swiss Oct Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.6% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9%

- (NE) Netherlands Sept Trade Balance: 3.0B v 1.7Be

- (NE) Netherlands Sept Retail Sales: 1.4% v 1.1% prior

- (SW) Swedish Oct Unemployment Rate: 5.7% v 6.0%

- (IT) Italian Oct Final CPI (NIC incl tobacco) M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.5%e

- (IT) Oct Final CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6%e

- (EU) ECB to published November Monthly Report

- IEA lowered its 2008 and 2009 world demand growth forecasts

- (BZ) FGV Inflations IGP-10 M/M: 0.73% v 0.95%e

- (SZ) Swiss Nov ZEW Expectations: -88.5 v -93.5e


- In equities news overnight: Siemens [SIE.GE] Reported Q4 Net loss €2.42B worse than estaimtes of a loss €1.61B. Its core operating profit of €1.49B was also below consensus estimates of €1.85B. Revenues came in at €21.6B above €21.26B estimates. The company reaffirmed its FY09 guidance for core Op Profit target of €8.0B to €8.5B. Q4 Orders were €22.2B compared to estimates of €21.7B. || BT Group [BT.UK] Reported Q3 EBITA (ex-items) £1.43B above the £1.36B estimates. Revenues were £5.3B compared to consensus of £5.5.24Be. The company announced that it would cut 10K jobs (9% of the workforce) by the end of the year || || Tecnip [TEC.FR] Reported Q3 Net €121.1Mabove estimates of €111.3Me. Revenues came in at €1.93B compared to €1.86B estimates. Company Guided FY Rev €73B v 74.56B and FY Op Margin above 8%. Its Q3 backlog was€7.72B versus 9.41B y/y while the order intake was €1.55B v €1.93B y/y. || Celesio [CLS1.GE] Reported 9-month Net of €192.7M and Revenues of €16.29B. It sees trading in line with expectations and confirmed its FY outlook || Zurich Financial [ZURN.SZ] Reported Reports Q3 Net $154M v $253Me, Op Profit $636M v $1.24Be; The company noted that it is not currently buying back shares under current program. 9-month Net $2.8B v $2.8Be; Gross written premiums $29.9B v $37.8Be; ROE 14.5% y/y. It noted that results were achieved despite the impact of particularly adverse circumstances during the Q3, including net capital losses for shareholders of $1.1B and catastrophe losses attributable to hurricanes Gustav and Ike in the of $595M || GDF Suez [GSZ.FR] Reported 9-month EBITDA €10.4B above the €9.9Be. Revenues at €58.8B versus €50B y/y. Company confirmed FY08 EBITDA growth target of 10%. || SAB Miller [SAB.UK] Reported H1 Net $1.42B well above estimates of $1.03B. Revenues were $11.2B versus $10.11B estimates. || AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] Received EU Regulatory Approval For Seroquel (for the treatment of major depressive episodes in bipolar disorder) || Premier [PMO.UK] Provided update in which it was on track to meet target of 50K boepd by end 2010. It noted that production year-to-date averaging 36,800 boepd . || Freenet [FNT.GE] Reportedly had put its sale of DSL business on hold according to the German press || Finmeccanica [FNC.IT] Reported Q3 Net €88M below €96.3M estimates. Revenues €3.26 versus €3.51B estimates. || Sns Reaal [SR.NV] Reportd Q3 Net -€88M; will not pay 2008 final dividend. Dutch Fin Min says will inject €750M into firm; SNS Reaal to pay coupon of 8.5%. Dutch Fin Min says to nominate 2 members to supervisory. || Celesio [CLS1.GE] Reports Q3 net €69.2M v €70.6Me, Rev €5.36B v €5.42Beconfirms FY outlook. Sees trading in line with expectations. || Premiere AG [PRE.GE] Reports Q3 net -€89.1M v -€32.5Me; Rev €244.6M v €258.6Me. Guides 2008 EBITDA to be negative in the range between €40M-€60M. Q3 subscribers 2.41M v 2.54M y/y. Talks With Banks On Debt To Conclude By Year End. CEO: will not give outlook for 2009, says company can do better. || ING [ING] EU approved the Dutch Gov't €10B capital injection into the company

- Speakers: The ECB monthly report noted that the economic crisis will demand for a 'protracted period'. The report largely echo's the Nov 6th ECB press conference following the 50bps interest rate cut to 3.25%. ECB sees inflation falling below 2.0% in course of 2009. It revised its 2009 GDP forecast to 0.3% from 1.3% prior; with inflation view cut to 2.2% from 2.6% prior. ECB now sees 2008 GDP forecast to 1.2% from 1.6% prior and inflation at 3.4% from 3.6% prior. || BoE Sentence stated that its MPC would consider more rate cuts at its December policy meeting. He did note it does take time for prior interest rate cuts to have any impact on the economy. The important thing to note is that monetary policy had shifted. He added that deflation was becoming a priority || German Econ Min Glos noted that Germany faced a difficult and lasting crisis, effects of recent crisis not reflected in today's Q3 GDP figures. He added that Q4 figures were unlikely to be better than Q3 negative reading || (JP) BoJ's Nakamura stated that Central banks must consider all policy options. He noted that conditions did not warrant immediate policy action but added BOJ is carefully watching profit outlooks at financial companies || EU's Almunia: Hedge funds will be subject to more regulation || HKMA's Yam: Fund repatriation and carry trade unwind are behind the HKD demand || Russia YTD Budget surplus at RUB2.75T; roughly 7.8% of GDP on cash basis according to its Finance ministry || OECD forecasted that the U.S., Japan, and eurozone economies would contract in 2009. OECD noted that both the US and Japan had limited scope for more interest rate cuts. OECD noted that the concept of deflation was remote hypothesis but added it could happen if financial markets situation worsens || Brazilian Central Bank revises rules on additional reserve requirements for time, demand, and savings deposits, noting that the move would free up to BRL40B into banking system. Also the central bank noted that it would allow banks to use bonds to meet reserve requirements

- In Currencies: The USD and JPY continue to reflect the equity price movements. The carry-related pairs rebounded from Asian lows after the RBA defend once again defended the A$. AUD/JPY cross up 100+pips from lows of 60.45, EUR/JPY up 2 big fugues near the 120 area while USD/JPY tries to maintain its footing above the 96 level. The JPY also retracing after Japanese press report that the BOJ could cut interest rates following next weeks Japanese GDP result on Monday. GBP/USD probed fresh 6-year lows below the 1.4805 level before retracing above 1.49.

- In Energy: IEA sharply revised its 2008 and 2009 world oil demand growth forecasts. IEA slashed its 2009 World oil demand forecast by 670k bpd to 86.5M BPD and now sees '09 demand growth at 0.4% v 0.8% prior. This is the third time that the IEA lowered its 2009 demand growth forecast. It cut FY08 forecast by 330k bpd to 86.2M bpd. The amount of the reductions were 'in-line' with recent analyst estimates' IEA cited recent IMF report for sharp downward revisions to 2008 and 2009 growth forecasts. Crude did test below the $55 handle prior the IEA report on concerns that the state of the global economy would continue to weigh on oil prices. Dec WTI traded as low as $54.47 in the electronic session. || The Iranian OPEC min reiterated the view that oil prices were too low. || Reportedly OPEC may have full meeting in Egypt on Nov 29 (which corresponds to the for OAPEC (Arab) members meeting)

- In Fixed Income Supply:

- In the papers: NY Times discussed the possible benefits of bankruptcy for co. Article noted that some experts note that while bankruptcy would be painful, it could be preferable to a government bailout that may only delay, at considerable cost, the wrenching but necessary steps G.M. needs to take to become a stronger, leaner company. Article noted that although G.M.'s labor contracts would be at risk of termination in a bankruptcy, setting up a potential confrontation with its unions, the company says its pension obligations are largely financed for its 479,000 retirees and their spouses.

*** NOTES ***

The concerned over the slowing global economy continued its wrath through Asia. China Industrial-Output Growth was the slowest in 7 Years : Chinese factory sector was feeling the drag as export growth had lost momentum in the face of weakening in global export demand. Germany's Q3 preliminary GDP data confirmed that the country is now in a 'technical' recession, its first in 4 years. IEA cut its 2009 global demand growth for the third straight month, citing the recent IMF report as its catalyst (on Nov 6th IMF stated that all G7 economies would contract in 2009 except Canada). The ECB monthly report echoed the Nov 6th ECB press conference following the 50bps interest rate cut to 3.25%; thus leaving the door open for another rate cut in December. The Russian Central Bank spent another $9B last week to defend the Rouble. This come after the central bank sold a record $40B in October. The MICEX was suspended and awaiting regulator requests t reopen after encounter another session of losses. The global growth concerns will now focus today's U.S. initial claims and tomorrow's US retail sales data, which are expected to also affirm the economic slump. Markets will begin to focus on the upcoming G20 meeting this weekend. The hope is for some sort of coordinated action on the fiscal front. There is a lot of room for disappointment here as well. Walmart {WMT] to report prior to the US equity open.

- Looking Ahead:

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage applications w/e Nov 7th. There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was -20.3%

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept International Merchandise Trade. Consensus expectations are C$4.8B ; The prior number was C$5.8B.

- 8:30 (US) Sept Trade Balance. Consensus expectations are -$57.0B; The prior number was -$59.1B

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Nov 8th. Consensus expectations are 480k; The prior number was 481k.

- 8:30 (US) Continuing Claims w/e Nov 1st. Consensus expectations are 3.825M; The prior number was 3.843M

- 10:00 (GE) ECB's Weber scheduled to speak in Frankfurt

- 12:00 (US) Philadelihpia Fed's Plosser speaks in Pittsburgh

- 12:00 (EU0 ECB's Quaden to speak in Belgium.

-14:00 (US) Oct Monthly Budget Statement. Consensus expectations are -$200B; The prior number was -$56.8B



Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.





Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105