Thursday November 13, 2008 - 19:41:20 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: November 14, 2008
GVI Forex Analysis Thread: November 14, 2008 :
Pre Far East Open
- The focus was back on the U.S. with the key weekly jobless claims on the oprn surpassing the psychological 500,000 line. They are seen by many as the most current indicator of the strength or weakness) of the economy. Trade data improved due to weak import demand.
- The markets lost confidence Wednesday after tke uninspiring performance of Secretary Paulson, and his update on the TARP program. All are looking ahead to the G20 meeting this weekend. The hope is for some sort of coordinated action on the fiscal front. There is much room for disappointment.
- The GBP moved back to the front burner in the N.Y. session after the troublesome BOE quarterly inflation report. Markets are still waiting for the ECB next to acknowledge the error of its ways. It is watching the wrong numbers.
- Far East bourses were down again today following the lower U.S. close. As a side note, we have noticed that the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite closes have become negatively correlated. European bourses closed higher. Key U.S. indices have turned back higher in the N.Y. afternoon.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -105 bps +5 bps. U.S. bond prices were mixed. E-Z bond prices were better.
- The USD is now lower vs. the EUR. The CHF, GBP and JPY are still weaker. The GBP has been hit hard. The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) currently are mixed. Gold is up and oil is still below the key $60.00 line. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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