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Forex Research - No Follow Through Rally - Euro Drifts Lower All Night

No Follow Through Rally - Euro Drifts Lower All Night Last Updated 11/14/2008 5:21:35 AM EST (GMT +5)

No Follow Through Rally - Euro Drifts Lower All Night

Asian and European equity markets followed through with only a modest rise after the 900 point turnaround to the upside in the DJIA yesterday and risk currencies drifted lower as a result with EUR/USD trading back below the 1.2700 handle despite some surprisingly strong economic data out of France. The half hearted gain in Asian and European equity indices reflected the market’s wariness ahead of US Retail sales numbers due later today at 13:30 GMT as well as lack of enthusiasm for any progress at the scheduled G-20 meeting over the weekend.

Yesterday’s massive rally in US equities and risk currencies in the absence of any fundamental news was a perfect example of a classic bear market short covering rally illustrating the treacherous trading conditions that persist.As we have been stressing ad nauseam the range environment that currently prevails in the FX market will make it very difficult for either the bulls or the bears to make money as momentum will continue to shift violently in either direction, often without rhyme or reason.

Today’s drift in the EUR/USD is an understandable move given the continuous drumbeat of dour news from the region. Despite the better than forecast French GDP data which actually managed to record an expansion of 0.1%,the overall EZ flash GDP printed in line with estimates at -0.2% confirming a technical recession. Still with data now out of the way, we doubt it will have much impact on trade for the rest of the day as the number was well anticipated and may well have been a relief to most market participants who braced for worse results.

Instead, trading in the North American session will most likely be driven by the US Retail Sales numbers which could have a huge impact of stocks and currencies. With jobless claims above 500K, the bankruptcy of Circuit City and dire warnings from Best Buy, markets no doubt expect theworst for month of October on the retail front.If core sales slide -2.0% or worse equities could decline sharply once again and will no doubt drag the EUR/USD back to 1.2500 handle. However, if the retail sales news today is not disastrous, the DJIA may well put together a back to back rally taking EUR/USD and other risk currencies towards yesterdays highs in the process.

FX Upcoming

Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 13:30 8:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales -2.0% -3.7%
CAD 13:30 8:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales N/A -2.3%
USD 13:30 8:30 USD Retail Sales -2.0% -1.2%
USD 13.30 8:30 USD Import Prices -4.2% -3.0%
USD 15:00 10:00 USD Business Inventories 0.1% 0.3%

About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

 

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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
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09:30 US- GB- GDP
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