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Forex Blog - European market Update: Equity Dealers banking on history for possible 'bottom' in prices; G20 summit likely to disappoint

Today 05:52am

European market Update: Equity Dealers banking on history for possible 'bottom' in prices; G20 summit likely to disappoint


- (GE) German Oct Final CPI M/M: -0.2% -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4%e; EU Harmonized M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v -2.5%e

- (EU) Oct 25 New Car Registrations: -14.5% v -8.4% prior

- (FR) French Oct Survey of Industrial Investment 2008: +2% v +6% prior; 2009 seen at -4%

- (FR) French Q3 Prelim Non - Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Wages Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.8%e;

- (FR) French Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.4%

- (SP ) Spain Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%

- (CZ) Czech Oct PPI M/M: -1.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 5.0%

- (CZ) Czech Q3 GDP Y/Y: 4.7% v 3.8%e

- (HU) Hungary Q3 Preliminary GDP Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.2%

- (HK) Hong Kong Q3 GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.6%e

- (SW) Swedish Oct Average House Prices: SEK1.71M v SEK1.783M prior

- (IT) Italian Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.4%e

- (EU) Euro-zone Oct CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2%e ; CPI core Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e

- (EU) Euro-zone Q3 Advanced GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%


- In equities news overnight: EADS [EAD.FR] Reported Q3 EBIT €860M above €512.3M estimates. Revenues were €9.70B compared to €9.50B estimates. It expected to exceed FY08 EBIT guidance of €1.8B. It announced an accounting change pending clarification of the A400M schedule, which boosted revenues by temporarily altering the rate at which milestone payments are recognized. 9-month net cash €9B with its order intake €88.7B v €82.4B y/y. It suspended production ramp up of A320 family, uncertain on A400M family. Limit requests from client on closing funding gaps. Expects to Deliver 470 Aircraft in 2008|| Telefonica [TEF.SP] Reported Q3 Net of €2.0B versus 2.06B estimates. Revenues were €14.99b compared to €14.88B consensus. The company Reiterated its 2008 goals of a 6% to 8% increase in sales and operating income before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization advancing 7.5% to 11%. || Dexia [DEXB.BE] Reported Q3 Net loss of €1.54B worse than the loss of €661.5M forcasted. It announced that it would sell its US FSA bond insurance unit [AGO]for $722M. It also planned to significantly cut trading operations and sell off further bond operations. Its Tier 1 ratio at end of Sept was 14.5%.|| Daimler [DAI.GE] German Works Council: Daimler to cut 5,800 jobs at Mercedes Benz (2.1% of the Daimler workforce) . Stated that co.planned to reduce overtime will not be enough to offset excess jobs and cut work week to 30 Hours || CIE Financiere Richemont [CFR.SZ] Reported H1 Net €864M v €850.5Me, Rev €2.8B v €2.79Be. Asian markets continue 'double digit' growth and saw signs of Lower Demand due to financial market crisis || Scor [SCR.FR: Reported Q3 Net of €38.0M above €28.1M estimates. Its gross Premiums were €1.58B versus year-ago levels of €1.46B. Its ROE 10.7% v 4.4% y/y and noted that its liquidity remained strong. Market volatility may adversely impact portfolio in coming quarters but remained well positioned to profit from increase in reinsurance demand|| Vinci [DG.FR] Reported Q3 Revenues of €8.96B above estimates of €8.65Be. It reaffirmed FY08 targets || Tui [TUI1.GE] Reported Q3 Net €256.1M below the forecasts of €405M. Howver, its EBITA was €772.5M above estimates of €686M and revenues of €6.87B beat €6.72B estimates. The company noted that trading remained inline with prior expectations. || Nissan Motor [NSANY] Stated that it would cut domestic production by 72K and seen cutting 500 temporary jobs next year || Yara [YAR.NO] To cut production of Ammonia and Urea production.- The decision to stop production temporarily is related to the current situation in international ammonia and urea markets and the timing of restarts will depend on the development in ammonia, urea and natural gas markets. || Continental AG [CON.GE] Schaeffler stated that the EU had approved the filing of merger notice and that it would file the appropriate documents later today || Dana Petroleum [DNX.UK] was awarded 29 new licenses from UK Energy Minister || Easyjet [EZJ.UK] Denied press speculation that it intended to make a bid for London's Gatwick Airport. Company noted it was talking only about capacity issues || Deutz [DEZ.GE] Reached an out of court settlement with 3I Corp and agreed to make an adjustment payment to the acquirer. Settlement would have no significant impact on balance sheet of earnings. || Skanska [SKAB.SW] awarded SEK350M contract to build student housing in Norway. The customer is the Student Welfare Association in Trondheim. Contract is included in order bookings for the Q4.

- Speakers: ECB's Stark: Trichet did not rule out further rate cuts if needed

- When asked about interest rates falling to 2%; Stark replied that must ensure conditions for new excess do not arise ||Dutch Finance Min Bos says that the economy might contract in 2009 || FinMin Lagarde stated that France was technically not in recession and 'leaked' the GDP data ahead of its official release as the economy expanded 0.14% q/q in Q3. || German Think Tank DIW: Lowered its German GDP view for 2008. Q4 GDP seen at +0.2 versus +0.3% prior view while the overall 2008 figure placed at 1.8% against its formal forecast of 1.9%

- In Currencies: The USD was mixed ahead of the NY open on Friday following the late afternoon surge in equity prices on Thursday. EUR/USD was at 1.2715, firmer by 75 pips from opening levels in Asia. The weekend G20 meeting in Washington, which will probably focus mostly on immediate simulative measures, though should also start to lay out ideas on regulatory reform. || Chinese Securities Journal quoting a prominent economist calling for more aggressive PBoC interestrates cuts, and a commentary that rates could be cut by the end of this week, all added to expectations of further easing.

- In Energy: OPEC formally approved special meeting in Egypt on Nov 29 ||

China Petrochemical Sinopec [SNP] To reportedly, lower its oil refining in Nov by 10% to 15M metric tons (3.65M bpd) due to lower demand. The company did not rule out added output cuts. || Iran reiterated that It would support another OPEC production cut at the group's extraordinary meeting set for Cairo later this month || EU's Solana stated that he saw further deputy-level talks with Iran

- In Fixed Income: Fixed Income was sold off across the board after yesterday's Dow rally, but dealers noted the possibility of position squaring later in the session, ahead of the G20 Summit. Chatter circulated noting that the yield on the 2y Schatz ( 2.31%) was now above the yield on the 2y Gilt (2.29%), not seen since 1993. German and British yield curves are seeing bear steepening, with slightly better selling in the 10y part of the curve in response to the mid- morning equity rally. || The US yield curve was flatter and off its steepest levels, with the 2y note relatively unchanged at 1.2%, and the 10y note down 2.5 basis points to 3.83%. Eurodollar futures are pricing in higher short-term yields with the Nov contract due for expiry on Monday, implying a libor fixing of 2.33% || Fitch: Pressure on UK credit card interest rates may impact ABS excess spread

- In the papers: In an article released on Nov 12th, the WSJ discussed the historical evidence of buying stocks. Following Thursday's sharp rebound and ensuing rally in the US markets, the article received a bit more attention this morning. The question being pondered was the current atmosphere a prelude to further losses, as in 1929? Or is it the mother of all buying opportunities? Even if we think the market is a bit undervalued, does huge volatility pose an unacceptable risk of catastrophic losses? Whatever the case, dealing desks in Europe were 'abuzz' on the notion that Dealers also noting that historically the dates of Nov 13 1929 and Nov 15 1907 were dates that also marked equity market bottoms.

*** NOTES ***

The G20 summit begins today and the question remains whether governments can inject confidence into the system in the same manner as its liquidity operations. Hedge fund redemptions deadline on Nov 15th. Dealer chatter focusing on the broad US equity rally on Thursday. Noting that good volume was registered on the initial sell-off in S&Ps and complemented on the surge higher on the close. Rally being attributed to huge asset re allocation from bonds to stocks. The Vix volatility index falling by 10% Thursday and the internals of the stocks showed advances outpacing decliners by a 14 to 1 margin.

- Thus, to complement Thursday's equity market rally. Dealers also noting that historically the dates of Nov 13 1929 and Nov 15 1907 were dates that also marked equity market bottoms. Lastly, a 'positive' US equity close this Friday would mark only the second time since September 26th of enduring 2 consecutive 'up' days. However S&Ps Dec futures were down 1.7% at 891 ahead of the US morning.

- The G20 summit begins today and the question remains whether governments can inject confidence into the system in the same manner as its liquidity operations. Thus ECB's Trichet and Fed's Bernanke will hold a conference during the NY morning

Looking Ahead:

- Corporate earning expected ahead of the US equity open include JC Penny [JCP] and Agilent [A]

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept Manufacturing Shipments. M/M consensus expectations are -1.5% ; The prior number was -3.7%.

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept New Motor Vehicle Sales. M/M consensus expectations are 1.0%.; The prior number was -2.3%

- 8:30 (US) Oct Import Price Index. M/M consensus expectations are -4.4%; The prior number was -3.0%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 8.2% ; The prior number was 14.5%.

- 8:30 (US) Oct Advance Retail Sales. Consensus expectations are -2.1% ; The prior number was -1.2%. Retail Sales less Autos : consensus expectations are -1.2% ; The prior number was 0.6%.

- 10 :00 (US) Nov Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence. Consensus expectations are 56.2; The prior number was 57.6

- 10:00 (US) Sept Business Inventories. Consensus expectations are -0.1% ; The prior number was 0.3%.


- 8:30 (US) ECB's Trichet, Fed's Bernanke speak at ECB conference in Frankfurt

- 10:00 (US) Fed's Kashkari testifies at House Oversight Committee in Washington



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