- In equities news overnight: EADS [EAD.FR] Reported Q3 EBIT â‚¬860M above
â‚¬512.3M estimates. Revenues were â‚¬9.70B compared to â‚¬9.50B estimates. It
expected to exceed FY08 EBIT guidance of â‚¬1.8B. It announced an accounting
change pending clarification of the A400M schedule, which boosted revenues by
temporarily altering the rate at which milestone payments are recognized.
9-month net cash â‚¬9B with its order intake â‚¬88.7B v â‚¬82.4B y/y. It suspended
production ramp up of A320 family, uncertain on A400M family. Limit requests
from client on closing funding gaps. Expects to Deliver 470 Aircraft in 2008||
Telefonica [TEF.SP] Reported Q3 Net of â‚¬2.0B versus 2.06B estimates. Revenues
were â‚¬14.99b compared to â‚¬14.88B consensus. The company Reiterated its 2008
goals of a 6% to 8% increase in sales and operating income before interest,
tax, depreciation and amortization advancing 7.5% to 11%. || Dexia [DEXB.BE]
Reported Q3 Net loss of â‚¬1.54B worse than the loss of â‚¬661.5M forcasted. It
announced that it would sell its US FSA bond insurance unit [AGO]for $722M. It
also planned to significantly cut trading operations and sell off further bond
operations. Its Tier 1 ratio at end of Sept was 14.5%.|| Daimler [DAI.GE]
German Works Council: Daimler to cut 5,800 jobs at Mercedes Benz (2.1% of the
Daimler workforce) . Stated that co.planned to reduce overtime will not be
enough to offset excess jobs and cut work week to 30 Hours || CIE Financiere
Richemont [CFR.SZ] Reported H1 Net â‚¬864M v â‚¬850.5Me, Rev â‚¬2.8B v â‚¬2.79Be. Asian
markets continue 'double digit' growth and saw signs of Lower Demand due to
financial market crisis || Scor [SCR.FR: Reported Q3 Net of â‚¬38.0M above â‚¬28.1M
estimates. Its gross Premiums were â‚¬1.58B versus year-ago levels of â‚¬1.46B. Its
ROE 10.7% v 4.4% y/y and noted that its liquidity remained strong. Market
volatility may adversely impact portfolio in coming quarters but remained well
positioned to profit from increase in reinsurance demand|| Vinci [DG.FR]
Reported Q3 Revenues of â‚¬8.96B above estimates of â‚¬8.65Be. It reaffirmed FY08
targets || Tui [TUI1.GE] Reported Q3 Net â‚¬256.1M below the forecasts of â‚¬405M.
Howver, its EBITA was â‚¬772.5M above estimates of â‚¬686M and revenues of â‚¬6.87B
beat â‚¬6.72B estimates. The company noted that trading remained inline with
prior expectations. || Nissan Motor [NSANY] Stated that it would cut domestic
production by 72K and seen cutting 500 temporary jobs next year || Yara
[YAR.NO] To cut production of Ammonia and Urea production.- The decision to
stop production temporarily is related to the current situation in
international ammonia and urea markets and the timing of restarts will depend
on the development in ammonia, urea and natural gas markets. || Continental AG
[CON.GE] Schaeffler stated that the EU had approved the filing of merger notice
and that it would file the appropriate documents later today || Dana Petroleum
[DNX.UK] was awarded 29 new licenses from UK Energy Minister || Easyjet
[EZJ.UK] Denied press speculation that it intended to make a bid for London's
Gatwick Airport. Company noted it was talking only about capacity issues ||
Deutz [DEZ.GE] Reached an out of court settlement with 3I Corp and agreed to
make an adjustment payment to the acquirer. Settlement would have no
significant impact on balance sheet of earnings. || Skanska [SKAB.SW] awarded
SEK350M contract to build student housing in Norway. The customer is the
Student Welfare Association in Trondheim. Contract is included in order
bookings for the Q4.
- Speakers: ECB's Stark: Trichet did not rule out further rate cuts if needed
- When asked about interest rates falling to 2%; Stark replied that must ensure
conditions for new excess do not arise ||Dutch Finance Min Bos says that the
economy might contract in 2009 || FinMin Lagarde stated that France was
technically not in recession and 'leaked' the GDP data ahead of its official
release as the economy expanded 0.14% q/q in Q3. || German Think Tank DIW:
Lowered its German GDP view for 2008. Q4 GDP seen at +0.2 versus +0.3% prior
view while the overall 2008 figure placed at 1.8% against its formal forecast
- In Currencies: The USD was mixed ahead of the NY open on Friday following the
late afternoon surge in equity prices on Thursday. EUR/USD was at 1.2715,
firmer by 75 pips from opening levels in Asia. The weekend G20 meeting in
Washington, which will probably focus mostly on immediate simulative measures,
though should also start to lay out ideas on regulatory reform. || Chinese
Securities Journal quoting a prominent economist calling for more aggressive
PBoC interestrates cuts, and a commentary that rates could be cut by the end of
this week, all added to expectations of further easing.
- In Energy: OPEC formally approved special meeting in Egypt on Nov 29 ||
China Petrochemical Sinopec [SNP] To reportedly, lower its oil refining in Nov
by 10% to 15M metric tons (3.65M bpd) due to lower demand. The company did not
rule out added output cuts. || Iran reiterated that It would support another
OPEC production cut at the group's extraordinary meeting set for Cairo later
this month || EU's Solana stated that he saw further deputy-level talks with
- In Fixed Income: Fixed Income was sold off across the board after yesterday's
Dow rally, but dealers noted the possibility of position squaring later in the
session, ahead of the G20 Summit. Chatter circulated noting that the yield on
the 2y Schatz ( 2.31%) was now above the yield on the 2y Gilt (2.29%), not seen
since 1993. German and British yield curves are seeing bear steepening, with
slightly better selling in the 10y part of the curve in response to the mid-
morning equity rally. || The US yield curve was flatter and off its steepest
levels, with the 2y note relatively unchanged at 1.2%, and the 10y note down
2.5 basis points to 3.83%. Eurodollar futures are pricing in higher short-term
yields with the Nov contract due for expiry on Monday, implying a libor fixing
of 2.33% || Fitch: Pressure on UK credit card interest rates may impact ABS
- In the papers: In an article released on Nov 12th, the WSJ discussed the historical
evidence of buying stocks. Following Thursday's sharp rebound and ensuing rally
in the US markets, the article received a bit more attention this morning. The
question being pondered was the current atmosphere a prelude to further losses,
as in 1929? Or is it the mother of all buying opportunities? Even if we think
the market is a bit undervalued, does huge volatility pose an unacceptable risk
of catastrophic losses? Whatever the case, dealing desks in Europe were 'abuzz'
on the notion that Dealers also noting that historically the dates of Nov 13
1929 and Nov 15 1907 were dates that also marked equity market bottoms.
*** NOTES ***
The G20 summit begins today and the question remains whether governments can
inject confidence into the system in the same manner as its liquidity
operations. Hedge fund redemptions deadline on Nov 15th. Dealer chatter
focusing on the broad US equity rally on Thursday. Noting that good volume was
registered on the initial sell-off in S&Ps and complemented on the surge higher
on the close. Rally being attributed to huge asset re allocation from bonds to
stocks. The Vix volatility index falling by 10% Thursday and the internals of
the stocks showed advances outpacing decliners by a 14 to 1 margin.
- Thus, to complement Thursday's equity market rally. Dealers also noting that
historically the dates of Nov 13 1929 and Nov 15 1907 were dates that also
marked equity market bottoms. Lastly, a 'positive' US equity close this Friday
would mark only the second time since September 26th of enduring 2 consecutive
'up' days. However S&Ps Dec futures were down 1.7% at 891 ahead of the US
- The G20 summit begins today and the question remains whether governments can
inject confidence into the system in the same manner as its liquidity
operations. Thus ECB's Trichet and Fed's Bernanke will hold a conference during
the NY morning
- Corporate earning expected ahead of the US equity open include JC Penny [JCP]
and Agilent [A]
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept Manufacturing Shipments. M/M consensus expectations
are -1.5% ; The prior number was -3.7%.
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept New Motor Vehicle Sales. M/M consensus expectations
are 1.0%.; The prior number was -2.3%
- 8:30 (US) Oct Import Price Index. M/M consensus expectations are -4.4%; The
prior number was -3.0%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 8.2% ; The prior number
- 8:30 (US) Oct Advance Retail Sales. Consensus expectations are -2.1% ; The
prior number was -1.2%. Retail Sales less Autos : consensus expectations are
-1.2% ; The prior number was 0.6%.
- 10 :00 (US) Nov Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence. Consensus
expectations are 56.2; The prior number was 57.6
- 10:00 (US) Sept Business Inventories. Consensus expectations are -0.1% ; The
prior number was 0.3%.
- 8:30 (US) ECB's Trichet, Fed's Bernanke speak at ECB conference in Frankfurt
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Kashkari testifies at House Oversight Committee in Washington
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Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
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