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Friday November 14, 2008 - 14:45:48 GMT
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Our Euro Comments: A Nasty Head-Fake

Key News
• Europe Falls Into First Recession in 15 Years as Financial Crisis Deepens (Bloomberg)
• G-20 Leaders May Agree on Stimulus, Little Else as Bush Prepares His Exit (Bloomberg)

Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Oct Import Prices: Expected: -4.0%. Previous: -3.0%.
8:30a.m. Oct Retail Sales: Expected: -2.4%. Previous: -1.2%.
8:30a.m. Oct Retail Sales, Ex-Autos: Expected: -1.6%. Previous: -0.6%.
10:00a.m. Sep Business Inventories: Expected: -0.1%. Previous: +0.3%.
10:00a.m. Mid-Nov Reut/U Mich Sentiment Index: Expected: 55. Previous: 57.5.
10:35a.m. Nov 7 Natural Gas Inventories (in billion cubic feet)

“Progress is precisely that which rules and regulation did not foresee.”

      Ludwig von Mises

FX Trading – Our Euro Comments: A Nasty Head-Fake 

On Tuesday, in Currency Currents, I got into some Elliot Wave Principle in order to discuss why the US dollar correction might have been over, opening the door for sharp appreciation.

Until yesterday afternoon my forecast was right on the money. The US dollar had rallied and even touched a new intra-day high – 88.14 on the US dollar index – a point where the buck hasn’t traded in more than two and a half years.

Then we watched the euro, which had held up rather well this week compared to the rest of the majors, surge and reverse its losses from earlier in the week. The move was sharp and relatively large. And it led the majors in what was very much a widespread rally against the buck.

When I say nasty head-fake, I’m talking about the chart I showed you on Tuesday with the US dollar index making its way out of a contracting triangle correction pattern. Sure enough yesterday’s move brought the dollar right back.

(Chart unavailable in text format.) 

Tuesday’s Chart in Currency Currents Updated to Show the Week’s Price Action

We had some calls and emails right off the bat asking “What the heck is going on with the euro?”

We didn’t have much of an answer except to say we’d been watching a major reversal among US stock indices play out. After the S&P 500 a new intra-day low and the Dow nearly did the same, some curiously strong buying interest arose and sent stocks higher. And with the tight inverse correlation between the US dollar and stocks, it followed that the euro would find buyers.

(Chart unavailable in text format.) 

A Dramatic Inverse Correlation Between the US Dollar and Stocks

As the session came to a close yesterday it became clear that the rally against the dollar wasn’t anything to be taken lightly. It was out of the ordinary and could prove to mark an interim bottom for currencies in a similar position to the euro.

With that said, however, it’d be refreshing to see a follow-through move take the euro up through a key level. I’m talking about some short-term trendline resistance standing in its way.

 (Chart unavailable in text format.)

Until that happens we’ll honor the potential for a major US dollar correction. Yesterday’s rally faded overnight, but there’s no doubt the momentum could resume rather quickly. But as of right now we can’t guarantee yesterday’s move was anything more than fast-paced backing and filling.

So what’s it going to be? Can the stock market wiggle together two consecutive days of gains? Can the euro fight-off the fundamentals (and technicals) that are calling for it to go lower? It’s Friday – so we’ll probably see a big-time move ... or nothing much at all.

Have a nice weekend!


John Ross Crooks, III
Black Swan Capital LLC


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