Tuesday December 14, 2004 - 22:10:03 GMT
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The dollar bounced around as a 25 basis point hike by the Federal Reserve failed to produce much of a reaction from the market. EUR/USD rose from its 1.3260 low to 1.3315 while USD/JPY slipped from 105.75 to 105.33. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY continued higher (139.65 to 140.53) and GBP/USD rallied (1.9215 to 1.9295). Some traders were left scratching their heads when a bad US Trade Deficit number (-55 bio) sent the dollar only slightly lower (1.3339, 104.80). Surely, the inability to break through the technically significant 1.3350 resistance in EUR/USD had as much to do with the dollarís rise as anything else. Now, traders will wait for tonightís highly anticipated release of the Tankan Survey to see if USD/JPY and EUR/JPY can continue on their merry way. Most analysts expect a bad reading so anything to the upside should push the JPY based pairs back to the 104.50 and 139.35 regions.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING We see important tops at 1.3350 and 1.3400 in EUR/USD. As far as support candidates, todayís 1.3265 low and 1.3210 are applicable. The Slow Stochastic is neutral.
GAIN AN EDGE We will sell EUR/USD at 1.3395 with a 1.3425 stop and 1.3270 limit.
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