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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European currencies rebound on 'profit-taking; Commodities remain soft on continued global demand concerns

Today 05:51am

European Market Update: European currencies rebound on 'profit-taking; Commodities remain soft on continued global demand concerns

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (FR) bank of France Oct Business Sentiment: 77 v 85e; BOF sees Q4 GDP at -0.5%

- (DE) Denmark Oct Wholesale Prices M/M: -2.6% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% v 6.9% prior

- (NO) Norwegian Oct Trade Balance: NOK32.2B v NOK25B.

- (EU) Sept Trade Balance: -€5.6B v -€6.0Be; Trade Balance sa: -€5.7B v -€5.7Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

-Equities: Hypo Real estate [HRX.GE Reported net -€3.1B worse than the -€1.94B estimate and noted that it expected the restructuring process to weigh on its 2009 results. Its Q3 CDO writedowns were €307Mwhile the Loan loss provisions came in at €179M compared to €8M a year ago. Q3 Charges related to Lehman €175M and impairments related to Iceland were €43M. The company added its expected more charges in Q4. The CEO noted on the conference call that liquidity needs of firm would be greater than €50B rescue package. The firm already used €44B of €50B bailout package, will need to raise more capital in 2009. Its Tier 1 capital ratio would be below 6.8% by end of year || Hennes & Mauritz [HMB.SW] Reported Oct SSS -2% better than the -2.6% consensus forecasts. Total Sales were up +9% versus the +9.3% estimates. || Ultra Electronics [ULE.UK] Issued interim report. It sees H2 trading in line with expectations. It noted that the recent strengthening of the US and Canadian dollars against sterling, if sustained, would benefit the Group's results through a favorable currency translation effect || Solvay [SOLB.BE] Halted all spending development of SLV319 anti-obesity treatment. It noted at the stoppage in all R&D activities was made due to existing regulatory environment and not linked to adverse events || Bodycote [BOY.UK] Provided interim report in which it would halve plans for shareholder cash returns; cites market turmoil || Deutsche Post bank [DPB.GE] German Cartel Office: Approves Deutsche Bank stake in Postbank 'without conditions' || Hannover Re [HNR1.GE] CEOstated that company remains sufficiently capitalized and is optimistic for 2009. He added that they are working to expand US reinsurance operations. || Deutsche Postbank [DPB.GE] German Cartel Office: Approves Deutsche Bank stake in Postbank 'without conditions'. || H&M [HMB.SW] Reports Oct SSS -2% v -2.6%e Total Sales +9% v +9.3%e. || Air France [AF.FR] Expects to operate 65-70% of its long haul flights from Paris on Nov 17 citing strike. Note: Back on 11/15, pilots vowed to continue 4-day strike; approx 35% of long haul flights cancelled. || UBS [UBS] To introduce new executive compensation model, effective next year. Chairman Peter Kurer and co's top management to forgo this year's bonus. Top management cash, stock bonus will be pegged to bank's success. Says bonus for rest of management, employees to also be significantly reduced. Scheme is a result of discussions with Swiss regulators. New task force has been set up to pursue 'voluntary pay backs'. || BNP Paribas [BNP.FR] Reportedly in talks to purchase Russia Trust Bank - Russian press. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Noyer noted that the liquidity situation remained the top issue at this time but noted that measures taken should help stabilize economy in 2009. He noted that the interbank market did show some signs of normalizing, but additional time was necessary|| ECB's Weber stated that CPI provided leeway on monetary policy and does not rule out further rate cuts. The Economic crisis is increasingly a solvency crisis but an unstable financial system threatened price stability and economic growth. The Lehman collapse back in Sept was catalyst for economic wake up call|| ECB's Wellink noted that continuing to see substantial challenges ahead as real economic activity slows|| ECB's Nowotny reiterated the view that the central bank would consider new interest rates when new staff projections are in

|| BOJ's Nishimura noted that strains in global markets are intensifying; Japanese banking system becoming more unstable. He added that the USD market functions are worsening internationally, and that previous imbalances are now correcting themselves. Such corrections could take considerable period of time || French Fin Min Lagarde stated that she expected to see more difficult times ahead in regards to employment figures. She added that the G20 Ministers are continuing work begun at Friday's summit meeting and that the EU commission to issue formal proposal list on Nov 26. Lastly the State was considering support operation for the Auto industry ||India's PM calls meeting to discuss country's export markets later today || Swedish Fin Min Borg: Gov't forecasts 2009 GDP growth at 0.1%; financial market crisis will deepen recession

- In Currencies dealers noting that 'profit-taking' was the predominant theme. Overall the prospects of a EUR/USD trading range of 1.24 to 1.28 seems to be the current macro view. However, risk appetite or aversion would likely take its cue from the US equity markets and its ability from making fresh multi-year lows. Dealer chatter noting weekend comments from Shadow Chancellor George Osborne. The politician noted "GBP has devalued rapidly against the Euro and USD. We are in danger of a proper GBP collapse and run on the pound." Osborne reportedly dismissed criticism that he lacked judgment in predicting a run on the pound, insisting it was his job to tell "the truth about the British economy". FX dealers noting that the comments made while PM Brown's noted that the economy needed very special measures including a fiscal boost to compliment recent interest rate cuts. GBP, however is firmer in the session on chatter that a Far Eastern central bank is covering its recent GBP shorts. GBP/USD probed the 1.5000 neighborhoods after opening in Asia at 1.4660. Carry-related currencies also encountering some profit-taking. EUR/JPY up 200+ pips at 122.50, GBP/JPY up 300+ pps at 144.30 and AUD/JPY firmer by 160 pips at 63.00 ||IMF stated that the ECB has scope to cut interest rates, adding that the lending agency would need more funds over the next six months "In some parts of the world (e.g. Japan, US) interest rates have been cut very much, but it can be done more aggressively in other parts,"

- Fixed Income: Reportedly Germany may increase its FY09 federal net new borrowing to €18B against the €10B previously || - (UK) Sold £1.25B 4.25% 2055 Gilts at any avg yield of 4.354% and a bid-to-cover ration of 1.86 times.

- Energy: Reportedly Iran scrapped $22B agreement to sell 5M metric tons of LNG to India citing price dispute || Kuwait reportedly says it will cut oil supply if OPEC decides to lower output|| Saudi Aramco Exec stated that various oil projects could be delayed citing the recent drop in oil prices || FT reported that buyers of energy puts are set to make significant profits on Monday noting that some traders could see a return of more than 2,000% in less than 6 months. || Shell [RDS.a] reported a fire that occurred at a Nigerian oil pipeline last week; Fire was extinguished and co. is currently investigating cause of blaze || ANZ analyst revised their outlook on basic materials and energy lower; citing that conditions in China, Korea worse than previously thought

- Credit Crisis: G20 failed to offer any concrete solutions || Russian contagion fears are rising for the Baltic nations|| ECB's Stark noted over the weekend that the slow growth will continue "well into 2009" || CBI cut its 2009 GDP estimate to -1.7% from +0.3% prior; Says BoE could have room to lower rates to as low as 1.5%. UK will face its sharpest contraction in almost 20 yrs in 2009 and the number of unemployed individuals could rise to about 3M (9% of the UK's work force and highest figure since 1993) by 2010. || S&P stated that UK buy-to-let mortgages likely to suffer in economy downturn

***Notes***

- G20 failed to offer any concrete solutions, as expected. The global growth concerns continue to mount as Japan is official back in recession after its Q3 fell by 0.1%. This is the first recession for Japan since 2001. Dealers noting that evidence is mounting of a large scale consumer retrenchment. Any solution will have to have a positive impact on disposable income. IMF Strauss Kahn: "In the US and Japan rates have been cut very much. It can be done much more aggressively in other parts. ECB has room to decrease the interest rate, but stress has to be put on fiscal policy." Dealers noting that perhaps the ECB is behind the curve on cutting interest rates.

Looking Ahead:

- 8:30 (US) Empire Manufacturing. Consensus expectations are -26.0; The prior number was -24.6.

- 9:00 (US) Belgium Aug Trade Balance. There are no consensus expectations,; The prior number was -906.5M

- 9:15 (US) Oct Industrial Production. Consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number was -2.8%

- 9:15(US) Oct Capacity Utilization. Consensus expectations are 76.5%; The prior number was 76.4%

- 9:00 (US) Kansas City Fed's Hoenig scheduled to speak in New York

 

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