-Equities: Hypo Real estate [HRX.GE Reported net -â‚¬3.1B worse than the -â‚¬1.94B
estimate and noted that it expected the restructuring process to weigh on its
2009 results. Its Q3 CDO writedowns were â‚¬307Mwhile the Loan loss provisions
came in at â‚¬179M compared to â‚¬8M a year ago. Q3 Charges related to Lehman â‚¬175M
and impairments related to Iceland
were â‚¬43M. The company added its expected more charges in Q4. The CEO noted on
the conference call that liquidity needs of firm would be greater than â‚¬50B
rescue package. The firm already used â‚¬44B of â‚¬50B bailout package, will need
to raise more capital in 2009. Its Tier 1 capital ratio would be below 6.8% by
end of year || Hennes & Mauritz [HMB.SW] Reported Oct SSS -2% better than
the -2.6% consensus forecasts. Total Sales were up +9% versus the +9.3%
estimates. || Ultra Electronics [ULE.UK] Issued interim report. It sees H2
trading in line with expectations. It noted that the recent strengthening of
the US and Canadian dollars against sterling, if sustained, would benefit the
Group's results through a favorable currency translation effect || Solvay
[SOLB.BE] Halted all spending development of SLV319 anti-obesity treatment. It
noted at the stoppage in all R&D activities was made due to existing regulatory
environment and not linked to adverse events || Bodycote [BOY.UK] Provided
interim report in which it would halve plans for shareholder cash returns;
cites market turmoil || Deutsche Post bank [DPB.GE] German Cartel Office:
Approves Deutsche Bank stake in Postbank 'without conditions' || Hannover Re
[HNR1.GE] CEOstated that company remains sufficiently capitalized and is
optimistic for 2009. He added that they are working to expand US reinsurance
operations. || Deutsche Postbank [DPB.GE] German Cartel Office: Approves
Deutsche Bank stake in Postbank 'without conditions'. || H&M [HMB.SW]
Reports Oct SSS -2% v -2.6%e Total Sales +9% v +9.3%e. || Air France [AF.FR]
Expects to operate 65-70% of its long haul flights from Paris on Nov 17 citing
strike. Note: Back on 11/15, pilots vowed to continue 4-day strike; approx 35%
of long haul flights cancelled. || UBS [UBS] To introduce new executive
compensation model, effective next year. Chairman Peter Kurer and co's top
management to forgo this year's bonus. Top management cash, stock bonus will be
pegged to bank's success. Says bonus for rest of management, employees to also
be significantly reduced. Scheme is a result of discussions with Swiss
regulators. New task force has been set up to pursue 'voluntary pay backs'. ||
BNP Paribas [BNP.FR] Reportedly in talks to purchase Russia Trust Bank -
Russian press. ||
- Speakers: ECB's Noyer noted that the liquidity situation remained the top
issue at this time but noted that measures taken should help stabilize economy
in 2009. He noted that the interbank market did show some signs of normalizing,
but additional time was necessary|| ECB's Weber stated that CPI provided leeway
on monetary policy and does not rule out further rate cuts. The Economic crisis
is increasingly a solvency crisis but an unstable financial system threatened
price stability and economic growth. The Lehman collapse back in Sept was
catalyst for economic wake up call|| ECB's Wellink noted that continuing to see
substantial challenges ahead as real economic activity slows|| ECB's Nowotny
reiterated the view that the central bank would consider new interest rates
when new staff projections are in
|| BOJ's Nishimura noted that strains in global markets are intensifying;
Japanese banking system becoming more unstable. He added that the USD market
functions are worsening internationally, and that previous imbalances are now
correcting themselves. Such corrections could take considerable period of time
|| French Fin Min Lagarde stated that she expected to see more difficult times
ahead in regards to employment figures. She added that the G20 Ministers are
continuing work begun at Friday's summit meeting and that the EU commission to
issue formal proposal list on Nov 26. Lastly the State was considering support
operation for the Auto industry ||India's PM calls meeting to discuss country's
export markets later today || Swedish Fin Min Borg: Gov't forecasts 2009 GDP
growth at 0.1%; financial market crisis will deepen recession
- In Currencies dealers noting that 'profit-taking' was the predominant theme.
Overall the prospects of a EUR/USD trading range of 1.24 to 1.28 seems to be
the current macro view. However, risk appetite or aversion would likely take
its cue from the US
equity markets and its ability from making fresh multi-year lows. Dealer
chatter noting weekend comments from Shadow Chancellor George Osborne. The
politician noted "GBP has devalued rapidly against the Euro and USD. We
are in danger of a proper GBP collapse and run on the pound." Osborne
reportedly dismissed criticism that he lacked judgment in predicting a run on
the pound, insisting it was his job to tell "the truth about the British
economy". FX dealers noting that the comments made while PM Brown's noted
that the economy needed very special measures including a fiscal boost to
compliment recent interest rate cuts. GBP, however is firmer in the session on
chatter that a Far Eastern central bank is covering its recent GBP shorts.
GBP/USD probed the 1.5000 neighborhoods after opening in Asia
at 1.4660. Carry-related currencies also encountering some profit-taking.
EUR/JPY up 200+ pips at 122.50, GBP/JPY up 300+ pps at 144.30 and AUD/JPY
firmer by 160 pips at 63.00 ||IMF stated that the ECB has scope to cut interest
rates, adding that the lending agency would need more funds over the next six
months "In some parts of the world (e.g. Japan, US) interest rates have
been cut very much, but it can be done more aggressively in other parts,"
- Fixed Income: Reportedly Germany may increase its FY09 federal net new
borrowing to â‚¬18B against the â‚¬10B previously || - (UK) Sold Â£1.25B 4.25% 2055
Gilts at any avg yield of 4.354% and a bid-to-cover ration of 1.86 times.
- Energy: Reportedly Iran scrapped $22B agreement to sell 5M metric tons of LNG
to India citing price dispute || Kuwait reportedly says it will cut oil supply
if OPEC decides to lower output|| Saudi Aramco Exec stated that various oil
projects could be delayed citing the recent drop in oil prices || FT reported
that buyers of energy puts are set to make significant profits on Monday noting
that some traders could see a return of more than 2,000% in less than 6 months.
|| Shell [RDS.a] reported a fire that occurred at a Nigerian oil pipeline last
week; Fire was extinguished and co. is currently investigating cause of blaze
|| ANZ analyst revised their outlook on basic materials and energy lower;
citing that conditions in China, Korea worse than previously thought
- Credit Crisis: G20 failed to offer any concrete solutions || Russian contagion
fears are rising for the Baltic nations|| ECB's Stark noted over the weekend
that the slow growth will continue "well into 2009" || CBI cut its
2009 GDP estimate to -1.7% from +0.3% prior; Says BoE could have room to lower
rates to as low as 1.5%. UK
will face its sharpest contraction in almost 20 yrs in 2009 and the number of
unemployed individuals could rise to about 3M (9% of the UK's
work force and highest figure since 1993) by 2010. || S&P stated that UK
buy-to-let mortgages likely to suffer in economy downturn
- G20 failed to offer any concrete solutions, as expected. The global growth
concerns continue to mount as Japan
is official back in recession after its Q3 fell by 0.1%. This is the first
recession for Japan
since 2001. Dealers noting that evidence is mounting of a large scale consumer
retrenchment. Any solution will have to have a positive impact on disposable
income. IMF Strauss Kahn: "In the US
and Japan rates
have been cut very much. It can be done much more aggressively in other parts.
ECB has room to decrease the interest rate, but stress has to be put on fiscal
policy." Dealers noting that perhaps the ECB is behind the curve on
cutting interest rates.
- (US) Empire Manufacturing.
Consensus expectations are -26.0; The prior number was -24.6.
- 9:00 (US) Belgium
Aug Trade Balance. There are no consensus expectations,; The prior number was
- (US) Oct Industrial
Production. Consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number was -2.8%
- (US) Oct Capacity Utilization.
Consensus expectations are 76.5%; The prior number was 76.4%
- (US) Kansas City Fed's Hoenig
scheduled to speak in New York
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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