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Monday November 17, 2008 - 17:55:13 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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G-20: No new structures—maybe a reality bite!

Key News
• The Japanese economy entered its first recession in seven years, as growth declined for the second quarter running by a wider margin than expected, raising fears the situation could deteriorate amid the global downturn. (FT)
• Mining companies -- which couldn't dig minerals out of the earth fast enough just a few months ago -- now are struggling to climb out of a very deep hole. On Friday, the world's biggest miner, BHP Billiton, said major Chinese customers are trying to delay purchases of iron ore as China's building boom slows sharply. (WSJ)
• Australian retail sales rose in the third quarter by less than economists forecast. (Bloomberg)
• Key Reports (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Nov NY Fed Manufacturing Index: Expected: -27. Previous: -24.6.
9:15a.m. Sep Industrial Production: Expected: +0.4%. Previous: -2.8%.
9:15a.m. Sep Capacity Utilization: Expected: 76.7. Previous: 76.4.

Quotable
“It is fascinating to watch politicians come up with ‘solutions’ to problems that are a direct result of their previous solutions. In many cases, the most efficient thing to do would be to repeal their previous solutions and stop being so gung-ho for creating new solutions in the future.  But, politically, that is the last thing they will do.”
   
    Thomas Sowell

FX Trading – G-20: No new structures—maybe a reality bite!

No major new global frameworks were hashed out by the G-20.  Dollar is giving back some gains from that late blow-off move very late in the day on Friday.  The pound is staging a nice-sized bounce. 

Crude oil, the global growth thermometer, continues to move lower and lower.  We would have expected a bounce in crude if the market expected anything said by the G-20 would help.  There seems a sinking realization that global recession will continue to get worse before better.  And maybe the simple goal of G-20 at this stage is to avert global depression, instead of the run of the mill recession, now that there is growing panic about Chinese growth.  Or maybe too soon to say panic, but growing concern China isn’t going to be the market white knight riding to the rescue with its FX reserves. 

And if you consider the haircut oil producers have taken on the price of their product, not to mention their Sovereign Wealth Fund equity investments, one wonders where all their extra funds will flow from, those that are supposed to be lumped together with China’s to save the world economy. 

Maybe those oil traders rumored to be buying $30 put options know something.  Next chart support, on a weekly basis, comes in at $49.90.

 (Chart unavailable in text format.)

Maybe the G-20 got a wakeup call this weekend.  There are no white knights left out there.  And now is no time to rejigger the global financial system to create a one-off quick fix and return of risk taking.  Maybe it’s time to get out of the way and let the market decide who swims upstream and who doesn’t.

With news of Ecuador may default, with the fall in oil prices playing a big part, we think Mr. Market may start to really kick it into gear in the emerging world.  Emerging market contagion takes a direct route into the European banking system.  This might keep Mr. Sarkozy busy instead of allowing him time to dream up new global financial structures with more government control over everything related to money—a dream near and dear to hearts of progressives everywhere. 


Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital LLC

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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