markets were largely subdued after the New
Zealand close, with the US equity
markets again driving most of the movement. Asian equities remained largely
stable, Europe ended weaker, and the Dow Jones index
initially fell 250 points. The ensuing Dow recovery, led to mild gains in most
currencies against the USD.
slightly to around 0.56 after the Dow recovered, and is holding that level at
the time of writing. Earlier news of a NZ food price fall of 0.3% in October
had no material effect on the currency. Interest rate investor activity saw 10
year swap rates fall 20 basis points, with the yield curve flattening by 6 basis
points during the day; our steepening view remains intact.
recovery similarly helped AUD firm to almost 0.66, and EUR to 127.40.
NY Fed index slips from â€“24.6 to â€“25.4 in Nov. The EmpireState index posted
a new all time low this month (though note the survey only began in 2001). Some
of the key detail posted steeper declines than the headline, including orders,
shipments and especially jobs, which plunged from â€“4 to â€“29, adding weight to
the view that the labour market is now deteriorating rapidly.
industrial production rises 1.3% in Oct, but Sep was revised down from â€“2.8%
to â€“3.7%. The Oct rise reflected a partial bounce from the hurricane disruption
that weighed down the Sep result, however the Fed pointed out that even
excluding the tempests and the Boeing strike (which ended at the start of Nov),
production would have fallen about 0.7% over the two months. Hence the
underlying factory picture is one of contraction, broadly consistent with the message
from the business surveys.
slips into a recession. Growth contracted 0.1%qtr (0.4%saar)
following in from a revised 0.9% fall in Q2. Combined with a corresponding
contraction in the Eurozone and the US, the world
now has to suffer with the largest developed industrialised powers in a
recession. In Japanâ€™s case, this is first time since 2001 that economic output
has fallen for two consecutive quarters and was the result of weaker net
exports (â€“0.2ppt) and capital spending (â€“1.7%qtr), a sign the worldâ€™s second
largest economy has also become a victim of the global credit crisis and the
collapse in trade activity. Consumer spending did rise 0.3%qtr, more than
expected, but the seasonal factors such as a hot summer and the Olympics may
have had a role to play suggesting there is a risk consumption growth may stall
Euroland trade deficit was â‚¬5.7bn in Sep, the same as in August. Despite lower
oil prices, the deficit remains at record levels due tom weak export demand.
house prices down 2.9% in Nov. The Rightmove house price index fell sharply
this month, though the annual pace of decline of â€“7.1% yr still lags the major
lender house price series which have prices down around â€“15%yr.
the NZD to retain its weak bias, being capped at 0.58, and supported at 0.5350
- 0.5400. That support is likely to be tested during the next few weeks, given
our expectations of a 100bp cut in the OCR rate in December.
Country Release Last Forecast
18 Nov Aus
Nov RBA Board Meeting Minutes
Merchandise Imports AUDbn 21.0 â€“
Producer Prices â€“0.4% â€“2.2%
Oct PPI Core
Sep TIC Data
$bn 14.0 17.5
Housing Market Index 14 15
Leading Index %mth 0.2% â€“
UK Oct CPI %yr
19 Nov NZ Q3
Producer Output Prices 3.5% 1.5%
Input Prices 5.6% 2.0%
Westpac-MI Leading Index 2.5% â€“
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (17 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3
Retail Sales Review (13 November)
Economic Overview November 2008 (11 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (11 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (4 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3 HLFS
Review (6 November)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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