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Tuesday November 18, 2008 - 10:30:27 GMT
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GVI Forex Analysis Thread: November 18, 2008
Pre-New York Open
- Risk-aversion has been back on the table Tuesday, as key global equities continue to probe for a floor. Traders are now facing the danger of an â€śL-shapedâ€ť recovery rather than a â€śVâ€ť or a â€śUâ€ť. The lackluster outcome of the G20 meeting has fueled these fears. The markets continue to buy USD in a kneejerk reaction to weak equities.
- Far East equity markets closed mostly weaker. European bourses are down and the outlook for U.S. shares is for weaker. The U.S. sees the monthly TIC data later.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -94 bps +4 bps. U.S. bond prices are better. E-Z bond prices are higher as well.
- The USD is higher vs. the EUR and CHF from late Monday. The GBP and GHF are about steady. The volatile commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) currently are mixed on the day. Gold is a touch weaker and oil is down very slightly. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 19 Mar 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
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AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
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A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
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AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
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A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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