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Tuesday November 18, 2008 - 20:25:31 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for November 18, 2008
Pre-Far East Open
- One focus of trade today was House testimony by Secretary Paulson, Fed Chairman Bernanke and FDIC Chief Bair. Not much progress was made on the TARP program update, but Paulson did make the point that the financial system has been stabilized.
- Risk-aversion was on and off the on the table on Tuesday, as key global equities continued to probe for a floor. Traders are now facing concerns about a possible â€śL-shapedâ€ť global recovery rather than a â€śVâ€ť or a â€śUâ€ť. Markets still buy USD in a kneejerk reaction to weak equities.
- Far East equity markets closed mostly weaker. European bourses improved, and the outlook for the closing of U.S. shares is for higher.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -102 bps -5 bps. U.S. bond prices are better. E-Z bond prices improved as well.
- The USD is higher vs. the EUR, CHF, GBP and JPY from late Monday. The volatile commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) currently are lower on the day. Gold is steady and oil is off very slightly. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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