Novartis [NOVN.SZ] Announced Plans for EU filing of Rasilez, Diovan
Combo in 2009, US filing by end of 2008 || Experian [EXPN.UK] Reported
H1 Net $258M v $225M y/y, EBIT $476M v $463Me, Rev $2.02B v $1.79B y/y.
Targets are broadly maintaining margins and profit growth and was well
placed to grow through economic cycle || Scania [SCVA.SW] Signed accord
with Iraqi Gov't for planned vehicle production of trucks and buses. It
Expected production to begin in Q3 of 2009 || DSM [DSM.NV] To sell DSM
Deretil in management buyout; financial details not disclosed. || Amlin
[AML.UK] Provided an interim management report and noted that its
trading outlook was now "in marked contrast" versus 3 months ago . It
put hurricane losses at $20-25B and noted that it expected demand for
reinsurance to rise || Party Gaming [PRTY.UK] Reported Q3 Rev $117.7M.
Noted that talks with Department of Justice are continuing and
confident that its FY EBITDA would be in line with estimates ||
AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] Stated that its Phase III Zactima Zodiac and Zeal
studies show advantages for Vandentanib in combination with
chemotherapy in patients with lung cancer || Dana Petroleum [DNX.UK]
Reported FY08 production +30% y/y with Production will be 39-40K BOEPD
in FY2008 || Teva [TEVA] Received first US approval for Pulmicort
Respules generic; commences commercial launch || Barclays [BARC.UK]
Concessions to investors will fail to repress shareholder revolt - FT
According to the report , measures announced yesterday including
offering existing investors the opportunity to invest in Â£500M of
preferred securities with 14% annual interest until 2019 (originally
offered to Gulf investors), and waiving of executive bonuses, have
failed to quell shareholder's concerns || SIG [SHI.UK] Provides interim
report: Cutting 900 jobs and closing 65 trading stations, sees FY
results at the lower end of prior guidance. || Imperial Energy [IEC.UK]
Announces progress at Kiev-Eganskoye reserve; conditions for ONGC share
offer satisfied. 18 new wells expected to be on-stream by end of Jan
2009. || Solarworld [SWV.GE] Reportedly Solar World has offered to buy
4 Opel plants in Germany
- Speakers: ECB Trichet: World is in
a difficult period and that global financial system has "a lot of
defects". The crisis will take time to resolve and a joint effort is
needed|| ECB's Ordonez: Current financial situation is 'extraordinarily
complex'; Spain's inflation outlook "improved significantly" || Polish
Central Banker: Too early to cut interest rates; more analysis of Oct
data necessary || RBA Governor Stevens noted that the Chinese economic
slowdown may be worse than expected but saw improvements by late 2009.
he noted that the Australian central bank has ample scope to ease rates
and stressed that other central banks must be prepared to take
additional action if necessary. || Norway Central Bank (Norges) stated
that financial markets have improved but access to credit remains
limited . It saw uncertainty high in future economic development but
that risk premiums were expected to fall in coming quarters. Norway was
in better economic condition than most other countries and added that
the economic slowdown was expected to lower inflation in towards
mid-2009|| Russian Fin Min Kudrin stated that he saw significant
slowing of inflation in coming quarters; and that Russia could start
cutting interest rates in H2 of 2009
- In Currencies: The BOE
minutes added little surprise that the vote was 9-0 back on Nov 6th to
cut interest rates by 150 bps, but took notice of the scope for more
interest rate cuts. Dealers noted that UK Sonia now implying over 95%
chance of 100bps cut at Dec BOE meeting. GBP is steady against its
major pairs as this cut rate expectorations had seemed to be priced in.
GBP/USD was at 1.4995 and EUR/GBP trading at 0.8410. The JPY was
somewhat firmer against its major pairs as equity prices continue to be
the main driver of its price action. The Nikkei and European equity
softness keeping the JPY on a firm tone but CHF remained soft against
its major pairs. The rebound in the mid-European morning in S&P and
European bourses saw the USD and JPY pairs retrace from earlier strength
Dealers taking noting of some potential 'shifts' in the Russian Central
bank. Russian Gold/Forex reserves fell over the last two months as
Central Bank sold $57.5B to support Ruble . It noted that its reserves
comprised of Reserves made up of 45% in US dollars, 44% Euros, 10% in
British Pounds, 1% Japanese Yen. The increase in GBP could have some
implications in maintaining the basket content. One dealer pointed out
that the increase in GBP reserves would suggest that the Russian
Central Bank would purchase the ruble to support, which in turn meant
more selling of GBP and EUR pairs.
- Energy: OPEC President
Khelil: OPEC Cairo summit unlikely to make an output decision. OPEC
should not act before making sure prior cuts have been applied. He
noted that OPEC could lose credibility if it makes new decisions
without enforcing previous ones. He noted that OPEC has lost approx
$700B due to falling crude prices|| Dealers noting that the last break
below the $50 in front month NYMEX cruse was back in Jan 2007 and the
last WEEKLY close below that $50/barrel occurred during May 16th 2005
|| China to reform oil price mechanism within three weeks - Chinese
- Commodities: Citigroup analyst: Base metal prices
could fall by up to 20% in 2009 || Antofagasta [ANTO.UK] Maintains
Chile investment plan. President Awad: does not foresee delays in
projects as the global economy slows, and sees some costs falling.
In Fixed Income Germany tapped an additional â‚¬4B of the 4% 2013 Bobl's
, with an average yield of 2.78 and a bid to cover of 1.9, in line with
the prior. German fixed income has rallied across the board all
monring, with better buying of the Bund, (down 8bps to yield 3.57%)
resulting in bull flattening of the yield curve. Gilts meanwhile, are
only marginally flatter from yesterdays levels, buying across the board
leaving the curve relatively unchanged from its steep shape
Credit Crisis: De-leveraging continues as hedge funds encounter worst
2-month performance in the last 8-years. Oct Hedge funds that invest
globally -4.5% v -5% prior month according to Eurekahedge PLC. with YTD
global hedge fund performance -12%. Investors withdrew a net total of
$62.7B from hedge funds in Oct with industry declining by $110B to
$1.65T of assets . Citigroup analyst stated that assets could fall to
$1T by mid-2009. About 350 hedge funds shut down in H1 2008, up 16% Y/Y
with an estimated 700 that could go out of business by the end 2008 ||
Fitch noted that Turkish banks confront a challenging short-term
outlook || Irish PM Cohen stated that Ireland would look at all options
on bank capital ratios in order to limit taxpayer expense
economic concerns continued to weigh on sentiment. RBA Governor Edey
noted that its forecast to great deal of uncertainty, monetary/fiscal
stimulus to provide cushion and added that forecasted significant
further broad based slowing of the Australian economy. Dealers also
noting the recent comments fro US Tsy Sec Paulson in which TARP was not
a 'panacea' for all economic difficulty nor a stimulus package.
Emerging markets continue to bubble as Ecuador mulling the idea is a
potential debt moratorium. Russia Central bank noted that its
Gold/Forex reserves fell over the last two months by some $57.5B in
order to support Ruble . OPEC President Khelil comments getting
attention this session as he noted that the Cairo summit in late Nov
would unlikely to make an output as the Dec would be the most important
as it would have all compliance data
During the NY session
dealers and traders will focus on the Fed minutes and CPI data. Any
continued softness in US housing should start to build prospects for
the next 50 bp cut from the Fed. Jan Fed fund futures fully pricing in
a 50bps cut by end of 2008 to 0.5% and a 12% chance of a 65bps cut.
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 14. There are no
consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 11.9%
8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept International Securities Transactions.
Consensus expectations are -C$1.35B; The prior number was -C$0.73B.
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Oct Leading Indicators. M/M consensus expectations are -0.3% ; The prior number was -0.2%
8:30 (US) Oct Consumer Price Index. M/M consensus expectations are
-0.8%; The prior number was 0.0%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 4.0% ;
The prior number was 4.9%.
-8:30 (US) Oct CPI Ex Food &
Energy. M/M consensus expectations are 0.1% ; The prior number was
0.1%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 2.4% ; The prior number was 2.5%.
- 8:30 (US) Oct CPI Core Index sa. There are no consensus expectations ; The prior number was 216.956 .
- 8:30 (US) Oct Consumer Price Index NSA. Consensus expectations are 216.700; The prior number was 218.783
8:30 (US) Oct Housing Starts. Consensus expectations are 780k ; The
prior number was 817k . Oct Building Permits. Consensus expectations
are 774k; The prior number was 805k
- 9:00 (US) Fed's Kohn speaks on Monetary Policy at Cato conference
- 12:30 (US) Treasury's Kashkari speaks on emergency Economic Stablilization Act in Washington
- 10:35 (US) weekly energy inventories
-14:00 (US) FOMC Minutes from Oct 28-29 Meeting
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