remain rangebound, with the overall trend dictated by major global equity markets,
and punctuated by the occasional large foreign exchange transaction (such as occurred
last night in Europe). Comments
from policymakers in the US and down
under indicate a gloomy outlook for some time yet.
stopped hugging the 0.55 level during the European session when the large EUR
and GBP orders were seen. The 70 pip spike upwards lasted about 4 hours, and
this morning sees it trading slightly under its previous level, at 0.5480. The
slightly softer tone likely due to the Dow Jones index down by 3.2% at time of
writing. Fonterra announced their issue of a 5 year GBP 225 million bond. Blue
chip NZ companies can access credit internationally, but must pay the price â€“
in this case, a credit spread of 450 basis points.
AUD was locked
in a tight range of 0.6470 to 0.6490 before the orders, and spiked to 0.6580.
Similarly to the NZD, it is currently softer at 0.6470.
action last night was in the EUR and GBP, with very
large buying orders, seen in both. EUR jumped from around 1.26 to 1.28 as the
transactioned was cleared by the market, and returned to its previous level
afterwards, for no net change on the day. As expected, US CPI inflation,
including the core measure, was lower, and retains the case for continued
easing. China continued
the risk aversion theme by saying US treasury
bonds remain the preferred safe
CPI drops 1.0% in Oct. The US CPI headline posted it steepest slump
since at least World War 2 when the current index was first devised, with the
first significant monthly decline (â€“0.1%) in the core CPI since 1982
contributing to that result. Retail gasoline prices fell â€śonlyâ€ť 14.2% in
October, less than the 20% fall that we had expected based on weekly data from
the Department of Energy. That explains all of the difference between the â€“1.0%
outcome and Westpacâ€™s â€“1.2% forecast. Food prices surprised with a 0.3% gain (they
should start falling imminently) but apparel off 1.0%, new vehicle prices down
0.5%, airfares down 4.6% and hotel accommodation down 1.6% provided plenty of
offset. Also there were below trend gains for medical care (0.2%), ownersâ€™
equivalent rent (0.1%) and recreation (0.1%). With gasoline prices still
plunging, food about to become a drag, prices being discounted to stimulate
sales, lower transport costs being passed on to retail prices (such as
airfares) and the US dollar rising the CPI will continue to fall sharply,
contributing to lower inflation expectations and demolishing any vestigial
arguments against further Fed easing.
housing data were sickeningly weak. Starts posted another 4.5% decline in Oct, but
in the detail we saw that new permits to build single family homes nose-dived
nearly 15%, confirming that new house-building activity is about to step down
sharply yet again, dashing hopes that the drag on the economy from new housing
investment might soon diminish.
minutes of the 28-29 Oct FOMC meeting revealed an appropriately gloomy outlook on
the US economy.
Members saw little or no growth in 2008, and forecasts for 2009 ranged from
-0.2% to 1.1%. Inflation was expected to â€śdiminish materiallyâ€ť, with some
highlighting a risk of deflation, and unemployment was forecast to peak above
7% next year. There was some debate as to the efficacy of a large rate cut,
given that rates were already very low, but the committee agreed that it would
do whatever was necessary to support the economy.
Bank of England
published the minutes to the Nov policy meeting when they
cut rates 150bp to 3.0%. They revealed a unanimous 9:0 decision, and discussion
of potentially cutting rates 200bp at the time, However the minutes noted that
likely fiscal stimulus to be announced Monday in the Pre-Budget-Report, and a
desire to keep some rate cutting in reserve to provide a future confidence
boost saw them limit the cut to 150bp on the day â€“ which was still a big
surprise at the time.
leading index down 0.3% in Oct, pointing to a deteriorating economic outlook
for 2009 even though Canadian domestic economic data has held up relatively
well until now.
retains its weak bias. Todayâ€™s action should be confined to a narrow 0.5475 to 0.5560
range, barring equity market surprises. During the next week, we expect 0.58 to
cap any rise, while 0.5350 is a key support level which, if broken, does not
augur well for the NZD.
Release Last Forecast
Jobless Claims w/e 15/11 516k 505k
Nov Philadelphia Fed Index â€“37.5
Indicators 0.3% â€“0.7%
Trade Balance ÂĄbn, nsa 88.5 71.8
Ger Oct PPI
%yr 8.3% 7.5%
UK Oct Retail
Sales â€“0.4% â€“0.6%
ÂŁbn 12.6 â€“2.5
Supply M4 %yr 12.4% 12.7%
Wholesale Sales â€“1.5% â€“0.5%
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (17 November)
â€˘ NZ Q3
Retail Sales Review (13 November)
Economic Overview November 2008 (11 November)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (11 November)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (4 November)
â€˘ NZ Q3 HLFS
Review (6 November)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.