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Wednesday November 19, 2008 - 20:49:48 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for November 20, 2008
Pre-Far East Open
- Risk aversion was back on the table on Wednesday. Concerns about the global economy were most evident in equity and fixed income markets. The financial services stocks were particularly hard hit.
- Forex markets to go nowhere fast on Wednesday. Traders seem to be waiting for something, but its not clear what. Whatever they are waiting for hopefully will provide some stable direction.
- Trading off equity indices continues to be the only game in town. Not much direction is likely to be coming from Washington as a major political transition is underway with increased Democrat control of the Congress and a new President are waiting in the wings.
- Far East equity markets closed mostly weaker. European bourses ended mostly down, and the outlook for the close of U.S. shares is for sharply weaker.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -111 bps -8 bps. U.S. bond prices are better. E-Z bond prices have improved as well.
- The USD is higher vs. the EUR and CHF from late Wednesday. The JPY is firmer and the GBP is still modestly higher. The volatile commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) currently are now sharply weaker on the day. Oil is weaker after weekly energy inventories today. Gold is down modestly. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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