User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday November 20, 2008 - 18:21:57 GMT
GCI Financial -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (20 November 2008)


The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2585 level and was supported around the $1.2470 level.  The common currency gained ground on a variety of factors. First, weekly U.S. initial jobless claims surged to their highest level in nearly sixteen years, up 27,000 to 542,000 while continuing jobless claims were at 4.012 million, the highest level since December 1982.  These data suggest November non-farm payrolls could be off by another 200,000 or so and adds to the view that unemployment could reach at least 7.0% to 7.5% in 2009. Second, U.S. equity markets collapsed further as the Dow reached a fresh multi-year low around 7,774, reducing demand for U.S. shares.  Third, Detroit automakers left Washington, D.C. empty-handed and apparently will not be receiving any bailout money at this time.  Fourth, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in October were released yesterday and indicated some policymakers wanted to enact additional monetary easing at that time while others preferred to wait for and see how the economy develops.  Many economists believe the FOMC will be forced to reduce borrowing costs to near zero per cent to counter the ongoing credit crisis.  The fed funds futures market is fully discounting a 50bps monetary easing by the FOMC on 16 December.  The minutes read “While some expected an improving financial situation to contribute to a recovery in growth in mid-2009, others judged that the period of economic weakness could persist for some time.”  Notably, the Fed reduced its GDP forecast for 2008 to 0% - 0.3% and some FOMC members believe the economy may contract by 1.0% next year with an unemployment rate reached 8.0%.  Fifth, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn spoke very aggressively about deflation yesterday saying “Some people have argued that we should save our ammunition, that interest rate cuts aren't effective. I think that if we were to see this (deflation) possibility, that we should be very aggressive with our monetary policy, as aggressive as we can be.”  Sixth, October consumer confidence fell 0.8%, underscoring the weak state of final private demand.  Seventh, Fed Governor Kroszner spoke and said small business credit access continues to shrink.  In eurozone news, Germany’s Bundesbank warned the German economy – already in a technical recession – could see additional monetary contraction in Q4.  ECB member Bini Smaghi reiterated “there may be more (rate) cuts” while ECB member Nowotny said falling inflation expectations “obviously gives room for further measures.”  Data released in Germany today saw October producer price inflation unchanged m/m and up 7.8% y/y.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2135 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥94.30 level and was capped around the ¥96.05 levels.  Technically, the pair reached its lowest level since 28 October as traders expressed escalating concerns that the global economic recession may be deeper and more prolonged than previously thought, requiring much more monetary easing. Bank of Japan’s Policy Board convenes tonight and tomorrow and is expected to keep its overnight call rate unchanged at 0.30%.  Many traders, however, expect the central bank may enact additional measures to enhance liquidity provision to distressed money markets.  Data released in Japan overnight saw exports decline 7.7% y/y with a trade deficit of ¥63.9 billion.  Notably, Japanese exports to Asia declined for the first time since February 2002 and exports to the U.S. fell 19.0%, the fourteenth consecutive month of declines.  Credit default swaps measured by the five-year iTraxx CJ index on 50 Japanese investment-grade companies escalated to 330 bps today, matching last month’s record high.  This is evidence of the massive problems facing Japan’s bond market.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 6.89% to close at ¥7,703.04.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥117.80 level and was capped around the ¥120.45 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥139.15 level while the Swiss franc lost ground vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥77.30 level.  The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8345 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8285.  Some economists are predicting China’s economy could experience deflation next year and this will lead to increased speculation about an easier monetary policy from People’s Bank of China.  Data released in China today saw urban registered unemployment print at 4.0% at the end of October.

The British pound depreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4745 level and was capped around the $1.4995 level.  Bank of England Chief Economist Dean revealed the Monetary Policy Committee will reduce interest rates further if required to ensure inflation meets its 2% medium-term target.  Commenting on exchange rates, he reported “Sterling has fallen by around 15 percent in the past year and that should help to support exports.” Data released in the U.K. today saw October retail sales off 0.1% m/m and up 1.9% y/y, the weakest annual increase since February 2006.  These data are a concern, particularly ahead of the holiday shopping period.  Also, the October public sector net borrowing requirement reached ₤1.382 billion, the first October deficit for the measure since 1994.  Additionally, October CML gross mortgage lending rose to ₤18.7 billion.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4315 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.8495 level and was supported around the ₤0.8335 level. 


The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.2225 level and was supported around the CHF 1.2100 figure.  Swiss National Bank surprised the markets today by reducing interest rates by 100bps, its third reduction in rapid succession.  SNB lowered its target band for three-month Swiss franc LIBOR to 0.50% - 1.50% from the previous 1.50% - 2.50% range and is now targeting 1.0%.  Officials reported “International economic conditions have worsened appreciably, bringing a higher risk of a marked slowdown in economic activity in Switzerland next year.”  Notably, today’s action came just weeks before the scheduled December quarterly review.  Data released in Switzerland today saw October exports decline 8.1% while the trade surplus rose to CHF 1.84 billion.”  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2450 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5350 level while the British pound came off vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.7960 level.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105