Last night's market action was highly significant,
and takes us into new trading territory. The catalyst, as has been the case for
the past few months, was global equity market selling, with the Dow falling
below the important 8000 level. Should that index close weakly in a few hours
time, we become even more confident that currency and risky asset prices will move
to a much lower trading range. Overnight news was overwhelmingly bearish: the
Fed's vice chairman says the risk of deflation is now higher, the US data release on jobless claims was grim, and the ECB
admits the crisis has deepened. Even safe-haven Switzerland has suffered, and cut their official interest rate
by 100 bp last night.
NZD sat stubbornly just above 0.54 during our day
yesterday, but once the Dow gapped lower, NZD stops were triggered, and it
quickly sank to a low of 0.5275. It is currently trading at slightly under
0.53. All eyes today will be focussed on Fonterra's announcement of their revised dairy farmer payout.
Two year interest rates fell yesterday by 8 bp, and we expect more of the same
AUD was also affected by the key break in the Dow,
falling to a low of 0.6160, and is poised to push lower as we write. The RBA
has reached what they considered a neutral cash rate, but will continue to cut
as they fear a stall in the economy, while the government will take the fiscal
EUR was relatively subdued, which is a reflection of
its non-high yield status, trading around the 1.25 level. JPY was more
volatile, but is little changed over the past 24 hours, trading at around 0.95.
US Philly Fed factory survey down from -38 to -39 in
Nov. The Philly Fed index slipped even further in November after slumping 41.3
pts in October. It is now clearly below the low-point of the 2001 recession
(-37.2) and not far off the -48.2 low-point in the 1990 recession. The detail
was mostly weaker, with a 7.2 pt decline to -25.2 on the jobs measure standing
out in the activity components, although the most dramatic component move was
the 37.9 pt collapse in the Philly Fed began this survey forty years ago.
US leading index dropped 0.8% in October, with all of
that decline explained by the collapsing equity market. The other nine
components were mostly offsetting, with strong rises in money supply and the
yield spread, but falling building permits and consumer confidence.
US initial jobless claims surged a further 27k to 542k
last week on top of the prior week's 31k jump. The Labor Dept reported no
special factors at play - other than lots of layoffs! Continuing claims also
continued their rapid uptrend, rising above 4 million for the first week since
the early 1980s. With the payrolls survey for November being conducted last
week (ended 15/11), the surge in initial claims suggests a serious
deterioration in labour market conditions since the October survey week (when
initial claims were at 479k). We had a 320k payrolls drop pencilled in for
November but risks are it will be an even steeper decline now.
Japanese trade balance back in the red on sharp
export decline. Figures for Oct came in well under market expectations of a
moderation in the Sep surplus. The balance instead dropped to a JPY63.9bn
deficit for the month - a JPY159bn deterioration on Sep's revised surplus of
JPY95.1bn. Exports dropped to be down 7.7%yr, the biggest decline since 2001.
Imports rose 7.4% and were the main source of the surprise vs expectations.
The Swiss National Bank cut its benchmark rate a
further 100bp to 1.0%. This is the third unscheduled rate cut since October.
UK retail sales posted a 0.1% in Oct, although the
detail showed that once again the result was flattered by a rise in food store
sales, after a string of monthly declines from May to August. Non-food sales
were down 1.1% in Oct and 1.3% in Sep, so it is clear that discretionary
spending has been cut back sharply. Other UK data included accelerating M4
money supply growth in October (from 12.6% yr to 15.1% yr) which we suspect
reflects liquidation of investment assets outside of M4 into cash which is in
the M4 definition; and GBP1.4bn public sector net borrowing, the first Oct
since 1994 that the public sector has run a deficit. The fiscal position ahead
of Monday's pre-budget report has deteriorated sharply.
Our view that NZD is inherently weak in this
environment is intact, with our only change being the expected trading range.
Previous important support of 0.54 now becomes resistance, with the new support
level being 0.50.
Country Release Last Forecast
21 Nov NZ
Oct External Migration ann. 4,407 4,525
Card Transactions 1.1% â€“
Electronic Card Transactâ€™s 0.8% â€“
Bullard, Lacker, Plosser and Evans
Policy Announcement 0.30% 0.30%
Eur Nov PMI
Factory Adv 41.1 40.0
Services Adv 45.8 45.5
Consumer Price Index %yr 3.4% 3.5%
Oct BoC Core
CPI %yr 1.7% 2.0%
24 Nov US Oct
Existing Home Sales 5.5% â€“2.5%
Current Account â‚¬bn sa â€“8.4 â€“
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (17 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3
Retail Sales Review (13 November)
Economic Overview November 2008 (11 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (11 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (4 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3 HLFS
Review (6 November)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.