Friday November 21, 2008 - 10:29:44 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: N.Y. Open for November 21, 2008
GVI Forex Analysis Thread: November 21, 2008
Pre-New York Open
- Equities overseas have rebounded from their lows early in the day after the weak U.S. close on Thursday. The approaching weekend might have forced some to lighten up on their shorts. Also speculation that Citi is pondering some sort of steps to resolve its problems has given spirts a lift.
- The Citi speculation has taken the woes of the U.S. auto industry off the minds of traders for the moment.
- The Eurozone mid-month flash November PMI estimates were shockingly weak. The manufacturing PMI was a record low 36.2 while the Services PMI was 43.3. Both were well below the weak market estimates. The PMI data are highly correlated with GDP data and the most current data normally available.
- Far East bourses generally rebouned modestly today. The European bourses are currently higher. The early call for the open of U.S. shares is for higher. No major data are due from the U.S. today.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -106 bps +1 bps. U.S. bond prices are weaker. E-Z bond prices have eased as well.
- With equity prices higher, the USD lower vs. the EUR, CHF and GBP from late Thursday. The JPY is sharply weaker after the BOJ kept rates steady and signaled no future changes. The volatile commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are up sharply. Oil is higher as it pivots the $50 line. Gold is higher. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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