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Friday November 21, 2008 - 11:06:52 GMT
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Forex Research - Euro Recovers as Equities Make a U Turn on Possible Citi Takeover


Euro Recovers as Equities Make a U Turn on Possible Citi Takeover Last Updated 11/21/2008 5:46:32 AM EST (GMT +5)

Price Action

  • USD/JPY rallies through 95.00 hitting 95.50 as equities make a U turn to the upside
  • AUD/USD strong move off 6100 lows to hits 6260 in early Europe are risk appetite returns
  • GBP/USD flies to 1.4990 as 1.50 calls after persistent liquidation this week
  • EUR/USD 1.2600 in view as equities drive demand for risk despite horrid PMI data

    Euro Recovers as Equities Make a U Turn on Possible Citi Takeover

    After another brutal sell off during the US session, equities in Asia and Europe staged a U turn bounce on rumors that Citibank may be looking for a buyer. Citibank whose stock sank to $5 per share and whose board meets today is facing enormous pressure to recapitalize its business. Thus, speculation of a possible suitor such as a Middle Eastern Sovereign Wealth Fund helped to reignite some risk appetite pulling euro, pound and Aussie higher for the day.

    The positive price action in the EUR/USD took place against worsening economic news as EZ Flash PMI reports recorded their worst readings on record with Manufacturing plunging to 36.2 versus 40.5 expected and services sliding to 43.3 versus forecast of 45.0. Currency traders however ignored the dour news despite clear evidence of near total collapse of demand amongst the region’s consumers and producers. With economic demand deteriorating across the globe micro economic news is having minimal impact on currency trade these days as risk on/risk off continues to the only theme in play.

    To that end today’s speculation on Citi is rife with risk as the thought of a possible takeover of a major US financial institution by a Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund is sure to spark a political backlash in Washington DC. Ultimately, however, the rhetoric may not matter. Citibank has long been considered dead man walking amongst the major US money center banks and today’s rumors only underline the fact that the company needs a major capital infusion to survive and may have no choice but to take it irrespective of where it comes from.

    With US economic calendar barren today, the price action in the currencies will very likely be driven by equity flows once again. Today’s option expiration could create some technical movements early in the day in the DJIA but the ultimate question facing the North American session is whether traders will be willing to go long equities into the weekend. If risk appetite continues for the day, euro and cable may be pushed higher. Having carved out broad support at 1.2500 EUR/USD and 1.4500 GBP/USD the FX market remains in range with a possible counter trend rally in store as sentiment shifts from total fear to a small inking of hope that global capital markets have found a near term bottom.

    FX Upcoming

    Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
    CAD 12;00 7:00 CAD CPI (OCT) -0.2% 0.1%

  • About The Author

    Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

    DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




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