GVI Forex Jay 10:49 GMT November 21, 2008 eur/usd:
Nothing surprises me in this market as the pendulum swings
once again from panic to relief. Best we can say today is this is a relief
rally but a better Wall Street will at the least lead to some consolidation
after the sharp overnight moves. Watch again for the last gour of equity
trading but odds are there will not be a repeat of the last two days.
Intra-day range 1.2423-1.2625
This weekâ€™s range 1.2815-1.2423
For the eur/usd
move to have more legs, it would have to move firmly through the following:
1.2619 (using 1.2815-1.2423) or
1.2639 (using 1.2855-1.2423)
1.2665 (using 1.2815-1,2423) or
1.2690 (using 1.2855-1.2423)
20 day mva
One level to watch is the 1.2590-93 area, which held twice
as resistance on eur/usd spikes yesterday so would need to become support today
to make a more bullish case.Also note
the eur/usd low at 1.2331 was set 18 days ago and has not been retested. One
reason is probably that usd/yen moved lower as eur/yen fell, which took some of
the burden off the eur/usd to bear the full brunt of the cross move. In any
case, 18 days is a long time for consolidation when pressure is pointing in that direction. Perhaps one of our technicians can comment on this.
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