- Early trading this morning has been volatile once again, with US indices
opening higher, sagging into the red and then rallying back to positive
territory. The relentless selling in shares of Citigroup continues to weigh
heavily on markets, dragging down most of the rest of the financial sector with
it. Early stock strength was partially attributed to chatter/hope of
coordinated Central Bank action before Thanksgiving as well as rumors C could be
broken up. Front-month crude is making fresh lows below $49 while gold has
rallied some $40 amid the heightened anxiety in the financials. US Treasury
markets are attempting to digest the astronomical move in yields seen
yesterday. Yields have rebounded with the two-year back above 1% and the long
bond bouncing from all-time lows to trade back near 3.7%.
- Citigroup pressure has mounted steadily on shares of the world's largest
financial services organization all week, with the selling rising to a fever
pitch yesterday and this morning. Citi's shares broke $5.00 an hour after the
open on Thursday; they broke $4.00 not long after the open this morning. On
Thursday evening, CNBC's Charlie Gasparino said Citi was possibly looking for
merger partners, including Goldman, Morgan Stanley and State
Street. The Wall Street Journal later reported
that Morgan Stanley was not talking to Citi about a merger, although Morgan has
not confirmed or denied the reports. This morning the New York Times wrote that
Citi is not looking to split up the company, citing sources. The story quoted
senior executives as saying that the company is financially strong and has
ample financing opportunities, noting that few buyers would be willing to pay
the asking price for Citi's most valuable assets. Shares of Citi have dropped
as much as 25% in early trading. JP Morgan is also under pressure this morning,
with its shares down more than 10% after filing a mixed security shelf. Morgan
and Goldman are holding up around even, while Wells Fargo is down 5%. In an
attempt at optimism, Pimco's Mohammed El-Erian told CNBC that banks continue to
function well despite recent events.
- Quarterly reports from leading IT firms Dell and Brocade provided further
evidence of softness in the tech sector. Dell missed on the top line but beat
on the bottom line in its Q3 report yesterday after the close. The company said
it believes global IT demand will remain weak in the medium term, warning that
it sees continuing charges from the realignments and layoffs needed to grapple
with the situation. Asian growth held up for Dell in the quarter, with profit
almost doubling and shipments up 29%, with future cost cutting in Asia
likely to be minimal. Brocade beat on the top line and missed on the bottom
line, and guided slightly below estimates for FY09. Brocade's CEO was upbeat on
the conference call, noting that he sees plenty of opportunities. Solar name
CSIQ missed big on earnings and slashed its outlook for the coming quarter and
the year. The firm's CEO said that uncertainties financing coupled with
softening solar demand has forced the company to focus on short-term goals to
preserve cash and minimize risk.
- The Gap held things together in Q3, reporting in line with consensus
estimates, and even managed to maintain its outlook for FY08. High-end apparel
retailer Ann Taylor showed it was already feeling the heat in Q3, reporting a
significant loss for the quarter thanks to restructuring costs (earnings were
break-even ex charges) and same-store sales -19.4%. The company refrained from
offering guidance for the fourth quarter or the year, euphemistically noting
that it â€śexpects the competitive environment to remain highly promotionalâ€ť and
gross margin to remain under significant pressure. Consumer staples names Heinz
and Smucker are not doing badly in the downturn, with Heinz beating earnings
estimates and Smucker besting revenue targets. Both firms reaffirmed their
full-year guidance. While cautioning that conditions remain challenging,
Heinz's CEO bluntly pointed out the advantages of slowdown for the company,
stating that more people are eating at home. Smucker reported a nearly 20% y/y
rise in US
- The greenback was mildly weaker on Friday but maintained its overall tone of
consolidation as the week ended. The dollar's moves are extending its
consolidation in a 1.24-1.28 range after hitting lows at 1.2330 back on Oct 27.
While US equities have been making multi-year lows in the latter part of the
week, the EUR/USD has been unable to follow their lead for the last 16
sessions. A Citigroup analyst noted that the ECB was likely to cut interest
rates to 1.0% during 2009, down from the prior view of 2.0%. The analyst added
that it was possible that the ECB could cut interest rates to zero in 2009.
- The ECB's Trichet echoed numerous other central bankers in discussing the
Euro Zone in comments out overnight. Trichet said that some countries have more
room than others for easing rates, while some countries have no room to cut at
all. He added that the real economy was slowing coupled with diminishing upside
risks to price stability, and affirmed that the ECB would take recent
record-low European PMI data as well as the most recent ECB staff
projections into account for upcoming rate decisions, seeming to not rule out
cutting rates the bank's Dec 4th conclave.
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Mon 9 July 2018 AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony Tue 10 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 11 July 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 12 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 13 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
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