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Monday November 24, 2008 - 10:35:42 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis November 24, 2008
Pre-New York Open
- The Citi bailout plan announced overnight has taken some of the USD risk premium ot of the market and has sent a signal to the equity markets what â€śtoo big to failâ€ť now means. Unfortunately this was not done before LEH. Additional bear raids on major institutions now are less likely. In the meantime, the extremely accommodative Fed policy should support bank profits and gradually permit them to rebuild their balance sheets over time.
- Japanese markets were closed for a holiday today. Far East courses otherwise closed mixed to weaker. European bourses currently are higher. The early call for the open of U.S. shares is for higher today.
- the September German Ifo data were even weaker than expected and will inftensify the pressure on the ECB to make an aggressive rate cut in December. German industrial orders were also substantially weaker than expected.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -104 bps -2 bps. U.S. bond prices are higher. E-Z bond prices have improved as well.
- The USD lower vs. the EUR, CHF and GBP from late Friday. The JPY is better also. The volatile commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are mixed. Oil is pivoting the $50 line. Gold is higher. See the GVI calendar for an updated
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