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Forex Blog - European Market Update: German IFO hits 15 year low; Citigroup bailout plan takes some of the USD risk premium out of market

Today 05:53am

European Market Update: German IFO hits 15 year low; Citigroup bailout plan takes some of the USD risk premium out of market

- European Market Update: German IFO hits 15 year lows;


- (DE) Denmark Nov Consumer Confidence Indicator: -11.5 v-15.8e

- (GE) German Nov IFO Business Climate: 85.8 v 88.7e; Current Assessment: 94.8 v 96.8e; Expectations: 77.6 v 81.0e

- (EU) ECB Euro-zone Sept Current Account: -€10.6B v €8.4B prior; Current Account nsa: -€6.0B v -€7.9B prior

- (EU) Sept Industrial New Orders M/M: -3.9% v -2.8%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.5%


- In equities news overnight: InBev [INB.BE] Announced €6.36B rights offering at €6.45/shr, at8 to-5 offering on new shares || Standard Charter [STAN.UK] Will hold a 30 for 91 rights =issue to raise £1.8B. Issue price will be 390P/share or HK$45.11/share and added that the rights issue would reinforce its balance sheet|| Roche [ROG.SZ] Noted that a Phase III study confirmed Avastin Meets Endpoint In Breast Cancer || Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] CEO Ackermann stated that Financial markets remained nervous and volatile and noted that pressure on bank stocks has intensified coupled with deterioration in sentiment in banking industry. || Georg Fischer [FI.N.SZ] Noted that Marketing conditions have changed completely since Oct and expected that its FY08 revenue to be flat compared to year-ago levels. || NiCox [COX.FR} Naproxinod Phase III study meets companies primary end points, shows positive results || HSV.UK: Reports H1 Op profit £23.8M v £21.6M y/y, Rev £230.2M v £247.5M y/y; interim dividend raised by 12% to 10.5p/shr|| Roche [ROG.SZ] Phase III study confirms Avastin met primary endpoint In Breast Cancer. Announced that a Phase III study also: Roche reported randomized Phase III trial of Mabthera has reached its endpoint.|| Aegon [AGN.NV] Targets return on capital increase of 100bps by 2012 and announced that it would cut operational expenses by more than €150M. It was restructuring businesses in US, UK and Netherlands and reiterated that that capital buffer of €3B is sufficient. Lastly it would not raise pay levels in US next year || Homeserve [HSV.UK] Reported H1 Revenues of £230.2M versus £221.0M estimates and announced that its interim dividend was raised by 12% to 10.5p/shr. Repol [ REP.SP} Reportedly Sacyr's banks to make Lukoil a financing offer by mid-week || Peter Hambos [POG.UK] Chairman expressed confidence that the firm would have enough cash for CAPX to build new gold mines || Harmony Gold [HMY] Gold Price in ZAR terms has risen significantly || Statoil [STL.NO] CEO state d that entire industry has to reconsider capex situation going forward

- Speakers: US Govt Official noted that its decision on Citigroup [C] actions were targeted restoring confidence and that the Government was is open to further stimulus if conditions worsen. The Fed board's approved Citi pact unanimously and added that they made a judgment call not to replace Citi's top management. Lastly, the Treasury Sec Paulson and Fed's Bernanke were closely involved in rescue discussions || South Korea Deputy Fin Min noted that the Government was considering fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand and added that the property bubble would not burst. He felt that the worst of financial crisis has passed and added that no chance that a see a repeat of 1997 would occur. || French Fin Min Lagarde stated that the markets are at the critical point to reshape international finance. She added that a stimulus was required immediately and would include all possible measures. The economic growth and not inflation was priority. Lastly EU would consider and take steps to help carmakers || UK PM Brown noted that the country faces rapidly declining inflation. Monetary policy must be combined with proactive fiscal policy and that any fiscal stimulus would be temporary. Thus failure to act at this time would be a failure of leadership || IFO's Nerb stated that the decline in IFO index was stronger than expected, ECB most likely to cut rates by 100bps in December || IFO's Abberger stated that he saw a significant cooling in the economy in almost every sector. Thus he noted that siituation in Germany's economy was becoming 'more precarious' and that the real economy confronts a recession. Firms are seeking to reduce both production and jobs. Germany Chancellor Merkel noted that potential tax cuts are possible only after 2009 elections

- In Currencies: The general theme that the USD and JPY related pairs price direction tends to be negatively correlated to equity price movement remained in force this European morning. EUR/USD was probing towards the 1.27 area as European bourses were some 4% higher Dealers are noting that this could be a key week for the USD. The EUR/USD pair continues its post Oct low consolidation range of 1.24 to 1.28. The Citigroup bailout plan announced overnight has taken some of the USD risk premium out of the market and has sent a signal || Russian Central Bank widened its Rouble trading band by 30 Kopecks in both directions || The 2-year US-German spread is around -104 bps.

- In Energy: Iran Opec Gov: Reiterates view that current prices show OPEC Nov 1 supply cut was not enough, a further reduction is needed. Iran again noted that OPEC, Non-OPEC countries should work jointly to stabilize oil market. || Libya Oil Min Ghanem reiterated that OPEC could decide on further rate cuts at its Cairo meeting later this month. Noted that it remained too early to determine how much production should be cut and added that concerned by the direction of oil price, Thus OPEC should seek to stabilize current pricing environment

*** NOTES ***

The IFO data highlighted the European session and the data came in below consesnsus expectations of 88.7 to record its lowest reading since Feb 1993. the weak IFO data will intensify the pressure on the ECB to make an aggressive rate cut in December As the US Thanksgiving holiday approaches and year-end trading conditions persist dealers wonder whether liquidity favor consolidation of price movements or continued exaggeration and volatility. It could be a key week to see if the equity markets can put together a fresh string of positive days. The European bourses are up around 4% heading into the US morning following the US Government action on Citigroup [C]. Gold maintaining its firm tone as it trades above the $815 level in the spot market.

Looking Ahead: The data from US light in the US this session with existing home sales due out at 10am ET and the announcement of the Obama economic team members…

- 8:00 (HU) Hungarian Interest Rate Decision. Consensus expectations are for no change; The current Base rate is 11.50%

- 9 :00 (BE) Belgian Nov Business Confidence Level. Consensus expectations are -17.0 ; The prior number was -14.8

- 10:00 (US) Oct Existing Home Sales. Consensus expectations are 5.00M; The prior number was 5.18M. Existing Home Sales M/M Consensus expectations are -3.5%; The prior number was 5.5%

- 11:30 (IS) Israel Interest Rate Decision. Consensus expectations are for a 25bps cut to 2.75% ; The current base rate is 3.00%.

- UK Nov Nationwide House Prices. M/M consensus expectations are -1.7%; The prior number was -1.4% . Y/Y Consensus expectations are -15.1%; The prior number was -14.6%.


- 2:00 (US) Treasury to sell $36B 0.785% Nov 2010's 2y Notes.


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