- In equities news overnight: InBev [INB.BE] Announced â‚¬6.36B rights offering
at â‚¬6.45/shr, at8 to-5 offering on new shares || Standard Charter [STAN.UK]
Will hold a 30 for 91 rights =issue to raise Â£1.8B. Issue price will be
390P/share or HK$45.11/share and added that the rights issue would reinforce
its balance sheet|| Roche [ROG.SZ] Noted that a Phase III study confirmed Avastin
Meets Endpoint In Breast Cancer || Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] CEO Ackermann stated
that Financial markets remained nervous and volatile and noted that pressure on
bank stocks has intensified coupled with deterioration in sentiment in banking
industry. || Georg Fischer [FI.N.SZ] Noted that Marketing conditions have
changed completely since Oct and expected that its FY08 revenue to be flat
compared to year-ago levels. || NiCox [COX.FR} Naproxinod Phase III study meets
companies primary end points, shows positive results || HSV.UK: Reports H1 Op
profit Â£23.8M v Â£21.6M y/y, Rev Â£230.2M v Â£247.5M y/y; interim dividend raised
by 12% to 10.5p/shr|| Roche [ROG.SZ] Phase III study confirms Avastin met
primary endpoint In Breast Cancer. Announced that a Phase III study also: Roche
reported randomized Phase III trial of Mabthera has reached its endpoint.||
Aegon [AGN.NV] Targets return on capital increase of 100bps by 2012 and
announced that it would cut operational expenses by more than â‚¬150M. It was
restructuring businesses in US, UK
and reiterated that that capital buffer of â‚¬3B is sufficient. Lastly it would
not raise pay levels in US next year || Homeserve [HSV.UK] Reported H1 Revenues
of Â£230.2M versus Â£221.0M estimates and announced that its interim dividend was
raised by 12% to 10.5p/shr. Repol [ REP.SP} Reportedly Sacyr's banks to make
Lukoil a financing offer by mid-week || Peter Hambos [POG.UK] Chairman
expressed confidence that the firm would have enough cash for CAPX to build new
gold mines || Harmony Gold [HMY] Gold Price in ZAR terms has risen
significantly || Statoil [STL.NO] CEO state d that entire industry has to
reconsider capex situation going forward
- Speakers: US Govt Official noted that its decision on Citigroup [C] actions
were targeted restoring confidence and that the Government was is open to
further stimulus if conditions worsen. The Fed board's approved Citi pact
unanimously and added that they made a judgment call not to replace Citi's top
management. Lastly, the Treasury Sec Paulson and Fed's Bernanke were closely
involved in rescue discussions || South Korea
Deputy Fin Min noted that the Government was considering fiscal stimulus to
boost domestic demand and added that the property bubble would not burst. He
felt that the worst of financial crisis has passed and added that no chance
that a see a repeat of 1997 would occur. || French Fin Min Lagarde stated that
the markets are at the critical point to reshape international finance. She
added that a stimulus was required immediately and would include all possible
measures. The economic growth and not inflation was priority. Lastly EU would
consider and take steps to help carmakers || UK
PM Brown noted that the country faces rapidly declining inflation. Monetary
policy must be combined with proactive fiscal policy and that any fiscal
stimulus would be temporary. Thus failure to act at this time would be a
failure of leadership || IFO's Nerb stated that the decline in IFO index was
stronger than expected, ECB most likely to cut rates by 100bps in December ||
IFO's Abberger stated that he saw a significant cooling in the economy in
almost every sector. Thus he noted that siituation in Germany's
economy was becoming 'more precarious' and that the real economy confronts a
recession. Firms are seeking to reduce both production and jobs. Germany
Chancellor Merkel noted that potential tax cuts are possible only after 2009
- In Currencies: The general theme that the USD and JPY related pairs price
direction tends to be negatively correlated to equity price movement remained
in force this European morning. EUR/USD was probing towards the 1.27 area as
European bourses were some 4% higher Dealers are noting that this could be a
key week for the USD. The EUR/USD pair continues its post Oct low consolidation
range of 1.24 to 1.28. The Citigroup bailout plan announced overnight has taken
some of the USD risk premium out of the market and has sent a signal || Russian
Central Bank widened its Rouble trading band by 30 Kopecks in both directions
|| The 2-year US-German spread is around -104 bps.
- In Energy: Iran
Opec Gov: Reiterates view that current prices show OPEC Nov 1 supply cut was
not enough, a further reduction is needed. Iran
again noted that OPEC, Non-OPEC countries should work jointly to stabilize oil
market. || Libya Oil Min Ghanem reiterated that OPEC could decide on further
rate cuts at its Cairo meeting
later this month. Noted that it remained too early to determine how much
production should be cut and added that concerned by the direction of oil
price, Thus OPEC should seek to stabilize current pricing environment
*** NOTES ***
The IFO data highlighted the European session and the data came in below
consesnsus expectations of 88.7 to record its lowest reading since Feb 1993.
the weak IFO data will intensify the pressure on the ECB to make an aggressive
rate cut in December As the US Thanksgiving holiday approaches and year-end
trading conditions persist dealers wonder whether liquidity favor consolidation
of price movements or continued exaggeration and volatility. It could be a key
week to see if the equity markets can put together a fresh string of positive
days. The European bourses are up around 4% heading into the US
morning following the US Government action on Citigroup [C]. Gold maintaining
its firm tone as it trades above the $815 level in the spot market.
Looking Ahead: The data from US light in the US this session with existing home
sales due out at 10am ET and the announcement of the Obama economic team
- 8:00 (HU) Hungarian Interest Rate Decision. Consensus expectations are for no
change; The current Base rate is 11.50%
- (BE) Belgian Nov Business
Confidence Level. Consensus expectations are -17.0 ; The prior number was -14.8
- (US) Oct Existing Home Sales.
Consensus expectations are 5.00M; The prior number was 5.18M. Existing Home
Sales M/M Consensus expectations are -3.5%; The prior number was 5.5%
- 11:30 (IS) Israel Interest Rate Decision. Consensus expectations are for a
25bps cut to 2.75% ; The current base rate is 3.00%.
- UK Nov
Nationwide House Prices. M/M consensus expectations are -1.7%; The prior number
was -1.4% . Y/Y Consensus expectations are -15.1%; The prior number was -14.6%.
- 2:00 (US)
Treasury to sell $36B 0.785% Nov 2010's 2y Notes.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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