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Thursday December 16, 2004 - 10:34:40 GMT
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FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 12-16-04

Euro Getting Tired

Euro bulls received their wish yesterday as the TICS data printed beyond even the worst market expectations at $48.1 Billion versus last month’s $63 Billion surplus. However, looking deeper into the data the situation may not be as dire as it appears. Foreign demand for US assets actually remained relatively stable at $60 Billion. What skewed the data downward, was the renewed appetite from Americans for foreign securities with that number swinging from net sales of $3 Billion in September to net purchases of $15 Billion in October. In fact, this was the largest net buying of foreign assets by US investors since the height of the bull market in mid-2000 indicating that some US portfolio managers may be chasing the currency rally through capital markets.

Despite the clearly bad eco data euro could not take out the all time highs. Yesterday we stated that the pair is likely to trade in 1.31-1.35 box for rest of the year and that “even if (TICS) is dollar bearish it will most likely only be able to push the EUR/USD to the upper end of that range”. Tonight’s much wider than expected French Current Account deficit and SNB’ s reluctance to raise rates an additional 25bp because of the strong franc undermines support for continental currencies to rally further. The EUR/USD may catch yet another bid this morning should the US Current Account deficit report a gap wider than the market expectation of -$170 Billion, however, with Trade and TICS data already out, much of the surprise from the release has already been discounted.

Meanwhile, in London, the pound continues to enjoy the benefits of rebounding UK economy as Retail Sales print much stronger than expected 0.6% versus 0.2% projected. The surprising gain is partly to due to sharp discounts by retailers as well as continued strong wage growth amongst UK consumers. Must be nice to be British.

FX Spot Overnight

- EUR compresses between 3450-3400 awaiting US data
- JPY moribund in 104.40-.20 range
- GBP breaks out above 9450 on good Retail data
- CHF weakens to 1440 as SNB passes
-
Upcoming Events
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST CAD Int’l Securities Transactions (Oct) Expected CAD$1.0B, Previous CAD$7.4
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Current Account Balance (3Q) Expected -$171.0B, Previous -$166.2B
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST USD Housing Starts (Nov) Expected 1983K, Previous 2027K
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Building Permits (Nov) Expected 2005K, Previous 2018K
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST USD Housing Starts (Nov) Expected 1983K, Previous 2027K
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 11) Expected 345K, Previous 357K
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Continuing Claims (Dec 4) Expected ---, Previous 2796K
- 17:00GMT – (12:00 PM EST) USD Philadelphia Fed (Dec) Expected 21.1, Previous 20.7
- 19:00GMT – (02:00 PM EST) FOMC Minutes (Nov10)

 

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Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


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