Tuesday November 25, 2008 - 10:34:00 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis New York Open November 25, 2008
GVI Forex Analysis Thread: November 25, 2008
Pre-New York Open
- Forex trade is off to a cautious start today as dealers consolidate the significant USD downswing from yesterday. As usual, forex prices are following the swings in equity indices which surged yesterday as well following the Citi bailout plan.
- This is a holiday-shortened week in the U.S. with the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday preceeded by early closures tomorrow, and skeletal staffing following on Friday. Most will avoid big ideas until next week. Thin conditions could lead to wide price swings from Wednesday aafternoon onwards.
- The Citi bailout plan took some of the USD risk premium out of the market. This could start to set the stage for some minor risk assumption. The Nikkei spiked higher today on a catch-up following the Monday holiday today. European bourses are mixed to lower. The call for the open of U.S. shares is for modestly lower.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -101 bps +5 bps. U.S. bond prices are higher. E-Z bond prices have advanced as well.
- The USD is higher vs. the EUR, CHF and GBP from late Monday. The JPY has advanced on a couter trade. The volatile commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are sharply lower. Oil is softer but is holding the critical $50 line. Gold is easier. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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