- In equities: Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] BHP will not proceed with $66B offer citing
difficulty of potential divestures of Rio's assets negatively impacted the
deal. BHP stated that the merger was no longer in best interest of shareholders
and will not offer any amends to EU Commission. BHP was concerned over
deterioration of global markets and falling commodity prices. It would take a
$450M charge related to the acquisition costs. Lastly BHP stated that combined
debt of merger entity would carry unacceptable market risks. Rio Tinto stated
that would continue with its strategy of operating low cost assets
|| Axa [CS.FR] Guided 2008 Op profit â‚¬3.6-4.0B below consensus of â‚¬6.71B. CEO
noted that its balance sheet remained solid but that the forecasts now
reflected reduced commissions on assets. He added that expected 2012
assumptions are becoming more and more obsolete and would continue to avoid
unjustified shareholder dilution. No need for capital increase and the co,pany
could absorb further shocks with current capital levels || Skanska [SKAB.SW] To
cut 3.4K staff in Nordic region (16.6% of
regional staff) citing 15% booking decline in
2009. Restructuring to cost approximately SEK600M in Q4|| BMW [BMW.GE]
Reportedly to cut 8.6K jobs (about 8.3% of global workforce) according to
German press|| Volkswagen [VOW.GE] Reportedly could consider halting production
at Wolfsburg plant from Dec 18 to Jan 11 - German press|| Memory Pharma [MEMY]
Swiss's Roche signed definitive agreement to acquire company for $50M in cash
|| Imperial Tobacco [IMT.UK] Reported FY Net of Â£428M below estimates of Â£597.8M.
Revenues were Â£20.5B compared to levels of Â£12.3B year ago. It stated that it
was comfortable with current financing position and expressed confidence that
several opportunities lie ahead. Efficiencies projects were impacting workforce
and on course to deliver targeted cost savings || AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] Provided
update on agreement with Abraxis in which it would receive $268M in fees if
Abraxis requires exclusive marketing rights || Topps Tiles [TPT.UK] Reported
FY08 Revenues in amount of Â£208.1M versus year-ago levels of Â£207.9M. SSS -5.4%
y/y and its will not pay a final dividend || Balfour Beatty [BBY.UK] Awarded
NZD230M contract to carry out overhead line works on the North Island Grid
Upgrade Project || Randstad [RAND.NV] Acquired a 10% stake in Fujistaff
for â‚¬12.3M noting that the acquisition would not add to earnings || Severn
Trent [SVT.UK] Reported H1 Loss Â£83.3M compared to year-ago profit Â£150.9M.
Revenues came in at Â£814.3M versus Â£774M y/y. Company noted that it had a
strong liquidity position and was funded for investments and cash flow until
march 2010. lastly it was on track for Reg obligations
- Speakers: ECB's Bini Smaghi noted that deflation talks has been 'imprecise'
and that s suggests that no country is currently in deflationry environment. He
saw inflation falling sharply but remaining in positive territory and added
that long term inflation still expected around 2% level. Anchoring inflation
would keep deflationary risks remote and if and when deflation risks emerge the
central banks must act fast. Lastly central banks must not 'exhaust' all
ammunition too early|| BoE's King stated that inflation has fallen sharply and
that the economy is contracting. He noted that it was likely that the UK
has entered recession in H2 of 2009 and has encountered a remarkable series of
events. King noted that the BoE would take necessary action to keep CPI within
target. Bank lending was the most pressing policy challenge. The VAT cut would
lower inflation in short run. Might have not reached the end of bank
recapitalization process and could not rule out government intervening
directly. Lastly King stated that the BOE might need to cut rates further as
banks are slow to pass though rate cuts || ECB's Nowotny: Stated that the ECB
Cannot rule out cutting interest rates to 2% (currently at 3.255). He noted
that the central bank would maintain 'steady hand policy' regarding interest
rate decisions . Gov't measures need time to work. ECB must maintain future
rate cutting capabilities and that the economic slowdown warrant calls for
'some rate cuts. He stated that the economy may have passed worst elements by
H2 2009. || BoE's Gieve noted that the fiscal stimulus would raise economic
growth as well as CPI. The BoE would make assessments to see if more needs to
be done but the case for UK
fiscal stimulus was strong || BoE's Sentence stated that he saw clear signs
that UK economy
was in recession and expected alower CPI and weak FX to boost growth. Noted
that interest rate cuts during the CPI increase could have posed risk to BoE
credibility and that the BoE policy must counter deflation pressures || BoE's
Bean stated that bank rate may need to move more aggressively to achieve the
same result during normal economic times. The supply of credit is key, policy transmission
mechanism currently uncertain || BoE's Barker: housing market remains extremely
difficult and suffers from lack of mortgage access and lack of confidence. ||
Chancellor Darling: UK
will continue to do all that is necessary adding that inaction would be
irresponsible. Noted that UK
has given substantial assistance to help business and that the UK Stimulus
package would make a difference. Banks must be motivated by Gov't to begin
lending . Lastly he added that his forecasts are close to BOE's. || Spain
PM Zapatero: Gov't joint action against financial market crisis has been
intense || Indonesia Central Bank Deputy Gov noted that recent declines in its
FX reserves were not a cause for concern . he also saw annual 2009 GDP growth
in a range of 5.0-5-5%. || OECD November Economic Outlook: stated that it saw a
protracted recession in many member economies with the contractong on average
by 0.4% in 2009. the OECD urged the Fed and ECB to cut rates. The report noted
that the UK GDP was to fall by -1.1% in 2009 ( biggest contraction since 1991)
giving scope for BoE rate cuts. It lowered China 2009 GDP forecast to 8.0% from
9.5% prior, sees domestic demand slowing. Russia's
2009 GDP forecast cut to+2.3% from +6.5% prior
- In Currencies: The USD saw a moderate recovery after weakening on Monday. The
recent inverse relationship of USD and JPY in regards to equity price movements
remained intact. ECB's Nowotny noted that the ECB could not rule out cutting
interest rates to as low as 2% from its 3.25% stance. ; European equity markets
are softer, but the overall impact on the FX majors has been somewhat muted.
The EUR/CHF pair extended its recent gains to trade near1.5493, while USD-CHF
consolidated after it moved back above the 1.2000 handle. A dealer noting that
the Norwegian data released ealier today leaves plenty of room for further
aggressive Norges Bank rate cuts.
-In Fixed Income: Italy
sold â‚¬2B 2y zero coupon bonds at an average yield of 3.265% and a bid-to-cover
ratio of 1.95 times.
- In Energy: Russia
Energy Min Shmatko stated that Russia
to cooperate with OPEC in order to protect 'its interests' and coordinate with
OPEC on oil output. The minister noted that low oil prices hurt fresh
investments and that 2009 would be a 'difficult year' for oil || Russian
reportedly to have finalized Chinese energy deal by year end 2008 according to
Russian Energy Min || Norway Dep Oil Min stated that tier country had no plans
to cut oil supply || Reportedly Kuwait govt handed in its resignation; it is
uncertain whether it was accepted, but recall earlier today Kuwaiti ministers
walked out of parliament in protest over PM questioning
*** NOTES ***
BHP walks away from its Rio Tinto offer citing the turmoil in global markets.
The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve will unveil as soon as today a lending
program to shore up the consumer-finance market, using money from the
government's $700B rescue. Dealers noting the Equity price action that has seen
it recover from its worst two-day performance and turn it into it s best
two-day performance. The newfound risk appetite should be tested today with
second look at US Q3 GDP data later this morning. The forces of
financial-system deleveraging remain enormous and would likely continue as long
as VIX remains elevated. Dealer chatter about a recent Bernstein research
report on deleveraging factors with hedge funds.
- (CA) Canadian Sept Retail
Sales: M/M consensus expectations are 0.4%; The prior number was -0.3%. Retail
Sales Less Autos : M/M consensus expectations are 0.2% ; The prior number was
-8:30 (US) Q3
Preliminary GDP Q/Q (annualized): Consensus expectations are -0.5%; The prior
number was -0.3%
- (US) Q3 Preliminary Personal
Consumption: Consensus expectations are -3.2%; The prior number was -3.1%
Q3 Preliminary GDP Price Index: Consensus expectations are 4.2%; The prior
number was 4.2%.
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Preliminary Core PCE: Q/Q consensus expectations are 2.9%; the
prior number was 2.9%
- 9:00 (US) Sept S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index: Consensus expectations
are 163.0; The prior number was 164.4
- 9:00 (US) Sept S&P /CS Composite -20 Y/Y : Consensus expectations are
-16.9%; the prior number was -16.6%
- 9:00 (US) Q3 S&P / Case-Shiller US HPI. There are no consensus expectations
; The prior number was 155.3
- 9:00 (US) Q3 S&P / Case-Shiller US HPI Y/Y 5: Consensus expectations are
-17.1%; The prior number was -15.4%
- 10:00 (US) Nov Consumer Confidence: Consensus expectations are 38.0; The
prior number was 38.0
- 10:00 (US) Nov Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Consensus expectations are
-26; The prior number was -26
- (US) Sep House Price Index :
M/M consensus expectations are -0.7%; The prior number was -0.6%
Q3 House Price Purchase Index: There are no consensus expectations ; The prior
number was -1.4%.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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