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Forez Research - Euro Lower Yen Higher as Equity Traders Take Profits

Euro Lower Yen Higher as Equity Traders Take Profits Last Updated 11/25/2008 5:28:34 AM EST (GMT +5)

Euro Lower Yen Higher as Equity Traders Take Profits

Although Asian markets rose in overnight trade trying to catch up to Wall Street’s best two day rally in more than 20 years, European bourses sold off in a wave of profit taking and dragged risk currencies down with them. The EUR/USD could not hold the 1.2900 figure as short term traders were quick to book their gains in wake of yesterday’s near 400 point rally. Still, the pair held the 1.2850 level in early European trade and its direction for the rest of the day is likely to be governed by equity flows from the US which are becoming increasingly thin as we approach the holiday weekend.

The yen too strengthened in overnight trade as USD/JPY dropped more than 150 points off its New York close accelerating its decline in early Europe. The economic calendar was sparse at best with CSPI data out Japan showing a massive decline in prices to -1.4% from -0.5% expected.The news suggests that Japan may be heading into yet another bout of deflation, but given the fact that the rest of the G10 universe appears to be following the same path, the yen is unlikely to be as affected by this phenomena as it was during the 2002-2206 period.

The one piece of relatively positive economic news came from UK today as data on preliminary business investment showed a far smaller decline that the market expected. Investment dropped by -0.2% vs. -1.5% eyed, but the data may simply be lagging the massive contraction in credit that has occurred in UK over the past several months and future reports are likely to show far greater declines. Nevertheless, the news kept cable buoyed for most of the early London trade as GBP/USD managed to hold the 1.5100 level for the time being.

Although trading will no doubt slow in US as we approach the end of this holiday shortened week, today’s release of the preliminary US GDP figures is likely to set the tone for trade. The market is looking for a sharp contraction to -0.5% from -0.3% prior, but should the data print worse and perhaps even hit -1.0% level, equities could see another triple digit sell off and drag risk currencies down with them. For the time being 1.3000 in EUR/USD and 1.5200 in GBP/USD remain concrete resistance and until those barriers are broken range remains the central theme of trade in FX.

FX Upcoming

Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 13:30 8:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP) 0.4% -0.3%
CAD 13:30 8:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (SEP) 0.2% -0.3%
USD 13:30 8:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Annualized) (3Q P) -0.5% -0.3%
USD 14:00 9:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SEP) -17.0% -16.6%
USD 15:00 10:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (NOV)
-26
USD 15:00 10:00 USD Consumer Confidence (NOV) 39 38
USD 15:00 10:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (SEP)
-0.6%

About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

 

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

 

 

 

 

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