Tuesday November 25, 2008 - 20:26:18 GMT
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FX Blog-GVI Forex Analysis November 25, 2008 Pre-Far East Open
GVI Forex Analysis Thread: November 26, 2008
- The USD headed south on Tuesday even though equities generally traded sideways. This is a holiday-shortened week in the U.S. with the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday preceeded by early closures tomorrow, and skeletal staffing following on Friday. Most will avoid big ideas until next week. Thin conditions could lead to wide price swings from Wednesday aafternoon onwards.
- The Citi bailout plan yesterday took some of the USD risk premium out of the market. This could start to set the stage for some minor risk assumption if worry about the stability of financial institutions starts to wane. The Nikkei spiked higher on a catch-up following the Monday holiday today. European bourses are mixed to lower. The call for the close of U.S. shares is for about steady.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -109 bps -4 bps. U.S. bond prices are higher. E-Z bond prices have advanced as well.
- The USD is sharply lower vs. the EUR, CHF and GBP from late Monday. The JPY has advanced on a counter trade. The volatile commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all modestly lower. Oil is softer but is holding the critical $50 line. Gold is easier. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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