User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday November 26, 2008 - 20:40:52 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Thursday 27 November 2008


News and views

A lot of US economic data was released night, most of it weaker than expected. Durable goods orders were particularly awful, falling by 6.2% against expectations of -3%. When so many data readings are actually worse than expected, this tells us that the market has not fully priced in the adverse economic conditions, a necessary condition for a sustained turnaround in the markets. In spite of this, the Dow has maintained its recent strength above the key 8000, this morning at 8520.


NZD: The mild positive sentiment continued for the third day, and overnight action, while uneventful, saw it reach a high of 0.5516. It is currently unchanged from that level, but all eyes will be on the merchandise trade release this morning and the NBNZ business confidence number this afternoon. Both have the potential to affect the NZD today.


AUD: Breaching 65 cents late in the US session, to a high of 0.6517, confirms the positive short-term tone to this currency. Yesterday’s news that third quarter construction work done was much higher than expected supports the mood.


Demand for the EUR fell on market pessimism over the adequacy of a European stimulus package released last night; it is worth EUR200 billion, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP. From an early high of 1.3028, EUR stepped downwards to its current 1.2870. Japanese fund managers were seen aggressively selling EUR/JPY late in the US session.


USD/JPY is locked in a narrow 94.6 to 95.6 range. China cutting its rates by 100 basis points yesterday limited any JPY rallies, given JPY’s role as a weak proxy for the CNY.


US personal income and spending reports showed an increasingly cautious consumer. Income rose by a stronger than expected 0.3% in October, while the 1% fall in spending was the largest drop since September 2001, but was in line with expectations. The surprise was that only about half of the drop could be attributed to prices, with gasoline prices tumbling through October; the remainder points to a sharp pullback in sales volumes.


US durable goods orders fell 6.2% in Oct, more than expected. The 11.1% drop in transportation orders had been flagged by a sharp drop in plane orders from Boeing, but the 4.4% drop in ex-transport orders points to broad-based weakness in the industrial sectors.


The Chicago PMI fell further to 33.8 in November, the lowest level since 1982. Production picked up slightly but new orders continued to slump, reaching 27.2 compared to 60.2 just three months earlier. As in other region factory surveys, the employment component slid further, from 41.5 to 33.4 – more confirmation that the official payrolls figures are about to get even worse.


US initial jobless claims fell by 14k to 529k last week. The previous week may have been distorted by the Veteran’s Day holiday, but the overall picture is a steep uptrend in recent months. Continuing claims also pulled back from 4016k to 3962k in the previous week.


US new home sales fell 5.3% in Oct, in line with expectations. Sales of existing homes continue to cannibalise new home sales, and the drop in mortgage rates after the mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were nationalised in September proved to be shortlived. The median sale price fell 1.7% to $218k, leaving an annual rate of decline of 7%.


Nov University of Michigan sentiment index for was revised down to 55.3, a new low for this cycle. The current conditions index also reached a new cycle low of 57.5, while expectations fell to 53.9 but held above the June low of 49.2. Inflation expectations a year ahead fell from 3.9% to 2.9%, reflecting the drop in gasoline prices.


German inflation fell sharply from 2.4% to 1.4% in the first estimate for November. Falling fuel prices, and base effects as large monthly gains from a year ago drop out of the annual figures, will see a sharp pullback in annual inflation across the euro area, putting more pressure on the ECB to ease interest rates.


The European Commission announced a fiscal stimulus plan for member states totaling around EUR200bn, or 1.5% of GDP. Each member will develop their own plans for how the stimulus will be provided.


China’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rate by 108 bps to 5.58%, the fourth cut since September and the largest in 11 years. Reserve requirements were reduced from 17% to 16 for the largest banks, and from 16% to 14% for the others. The move reflects a rapid shift in stance by policy makers, from containing inflation to avoiding a severe slowdown (GDP growth below 8%, as a rule of thumb).



The positive tone in NZD should continue over the next day, although today’s US Thanksgiving holiday will reduce market liquidity and potentially increase volatility. A range of 55 cents to 56 cents should suffice for the day, with the caveat regarding volatility.


Events Today

Country Release Last Forecast

NZ Oct Merchandise Trade NZDm –1,183 –1,000

Nov NBNZ Business Confidence –42.3% –

Aus Q3 Capex 5.7% –0.5%

2008/09 CAPEX Intentions, AUDbn 99.8 –

US Thanksgiving Day

Jpn BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Eur Oct Money Supply M3 %yr 8.6% 8.3%

Nov Retail PMI 44.3 –

Nov Business Climate Index –1.34 –1.40

Nov Consumer Sentiment –24 –24

Nov Economic Confidence 80.4 79.5

Ger Nov Unemployment Change –26k 0k


Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (24 November)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (17 November)

• NZ Q3 Retail Sales Review (13 November)

• NZ Economic Overview November 2008 (11 November)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (11 November)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (




Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105