User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday November 26, 2008 - 22:34:49 GMT
Global Forex Trading - www.gftforex.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - How Do Currencies Behave Around Thanksgiving?

How Do Currencies Behave Around Thanksgiving? Last Updated 11/26/2008 4:47:08 PM EST (GMT +5)

TODAY’S BIGGEST PERCENTAGE MOVERS

EUR/NZD ( -525 pips or -2.20%)

EUR/AUD ( -407 pips or -2.02%)

USD/CHF ( +200 pips or +1.69%)

THE STORIES IN THE CURRENCY MARKET

  • USD: How Do Currencies Behave Around Thanksgiving?
  • GBP: Growth Contracts for First Time in 16 Years
  • EUR: Slips on Weaker Inflationary Pressures and Dovish Comments
  • CAD: Current Account and Inflation Data on Friday
  • AUD: To Skirt a Recession?
  • NZD: OECD Predicts Short Recession
  • JPY: Busy Economic Calendar Ahead

EXPECTATIONS FOR UPCOMING FED MEETINGS

 

** PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD UP TO 100% BECAUSE OF THE PROBABILITY OF LARGER OR SMALLER MOVES BEYOND THOSE SHOWN ON THIS TABLE

HOW DO CURRENCIES BEHAVE AROUND THANKSGIVING?

On the eve before Thanksgiving, the price action in the currency market has been very erratic. Equities rallied for the fourth straight trading session while the US dollar weakened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars but strengthened against the Euro, British Pound and Japanese Yen. Currencies appear to be decoupling from equities on this low volume pre holiday trading session. Over the past few weeks, strength in equities has translated into strength in the EUR/USD but that was not the case today. US economic data was very weak, but hope continues to supersede reality as President Elect Barack Obama adds former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to his team.

Obama’s Economic Dream Team

Rather than having to pick from Timothy Geithner, Larry Summers and Paul Volcker, Obama has decided to add all 3 of these well respected and talented men to his Economic Dream Team. The equity markets turned around after Obama announced that Volcker will be the Chairman of a new White House advisory board that is tasked with stabilizing the financial markets and pulling the US economy out of recession. This new Economic Advisory Board will give their opinions in briefings to the President and include experts outside the government with the goal of “infusing ideas from across the country and from all sectors of the US economy.” Even before taking office, Obama is proving to be a President who wants to hear every possible viewpoint before making his decisions. He is on track to hit the ground running come January 20th and the equity markets have responded very favorably to his appointments and the initial details of his economic recovery plan. Over the next 24 days, Obama will play a critical role in helping to maintain confidence in the financial markets.

Latest String of Economic Data Hits Multi-Year Lows

Confidence will be extremely important as the US economy continues to come face to face with weak economic data. On the eve of Thanksgiving, we had a harsh reminder of the problems plaguing the US economy. With the shortened holiday trading week, there were an unusually large amount of US economic data released today and a number of those indicators hit multi-year lows. As we have previously warned, because third quarter GDP only slipped by 0.5 percent, fourth quarter GDP could be very weak.

  • Durable Goods Plunged 6.2% Largest Drop Since Jan 2006
  • Consumers Spending plunged 1% Weakest since September 2001
  • Chicago PMI Falls to 33.8 Lowest Since April 1982
  • UMich Consumer Confidence Lowest Since May 1980
  • New Home Sales Lowest Level Since January 1991
  • Jobless Claims Dropped But 4 Week Moving Average Hits 26 Year High

Is There a Risk of a Breakout on Friday?

For the currency market, the Thanksgiving Day holiday usually leads to low liquidity and thin volumes. Although this should mean range trading for all of the major currencies, watch out for a post Thanksgiving Day breakout. Low liquidity makes it extremely easy to exacerbate the volatility that we have been seeing in the currency market. In 2007 and 2006, the EUR/USD's trading range on the Friday after Thanksgiving was more than 3 times its trading range on Thanksgiving Day.

 

GBP/USD: GROWTH CONTRACTS FOR FIRST TIME IN 16 YEARS

There has been a lot of volatility in the British pound today and even though part of it can be attributed to the GDP report, the real action did not happen until after the NY open. Growth contracted by 0.5 percent in the third quarter, which was the first decline in 16 years. Consumer spending dropped by the most in 13 years while gross fixed capital formation plunged 2.4 percent. In addition to GBP 20 billion worth of tax cuts and spending that have been announced earlier this week, there is talk that Chancellor Darling is working on a package to boost bank lending. The Bank of England has been at the forefront of monetary and fiscal stimulus and despite ground sweeping moves over the past few months, they have yet to slow down. The UK is one of the few countries with economic data to report on Thursday - Nationwide house prices and consumer confidence are due for release. We expect the housing market to remain weak and negative growth to weigh on consumer confidence.

EUR/USD SLIPS ON WEAKER INFLATIONARY PRESSURES AND DOVISH COMMENTS

Weaker consumer prices out of Germany and pessimistic comments from ECB member Weber has contributed to the slide in the EUR/USD today. Inflation is easing across Germany, paving the way for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank next week. The need for further easing was confirmed by Weber who expects the German economy to continue to contract in the fourth quarter of 2008 and for most of 2009. He can’t say when the crisis will end but he expects a significant drop in inflation that it will take CPI below the central bank’s 2 percent target, giving them sufficient room to move on interest rates. European Union officials have not been sitting by idly watching the Eurozone economy slow. They have been working on economic stimulus plans that involve a package totaling more than $250B and aimed at lifting the region out of economic turmoil. EU members will meet on December 11th to discuss the details. The EU is also lending funds to struggling European automakers. There are a number of important pieces of Eurozone economic data on the calendar Thursday. This includes German unemployment, Eurozone retail PMI, consumer and industrial confidence. Switzerland also has their third quarter employment report due for release.

AUD/USD: AUSTRALIA TO SKIRT A RECESSION?

The 247 point rally in equities has helped the Australian and New Zealand dollars recover today, while the Canadian remained unchanged. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development announced that it expects Australia to emerge from the economic rubble without experiencing a recession. The report acknowledges the aggressive interest rates cuts along with some government spending as the primary factor behind their prediction that growth will slow but remain positive. Speeches made a few weeks ago about the fear that the country will be talked into a recession seem to support the recognition that the economy is relatively stable. The Australian dollar has fallen 25 percent year to date and we suspect that the depreciation in the currency is supporting the economy. Australia’s report on Construction Work Done was much better than expected while Skilled Vacancies declined markedly, possible indicating that the job market may be in trouble. The largest announcement emerging next week will be the rate decision from Australia on Tuesday and New Zealand on Wednesday. A severe cut by the RBA may indicate that growth concerns are still lingering. The OECD also indicated that the effects of the recession in New Zealand will be short-lived because of the drastic declines in rates and a surplus in the current account. Like the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar has fallen 27 percent year to date. New Zealand will be releasing its business confidence report this evening while Canada will be reporting current account on Friday.

USD/JPY FACES BUSY ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 247 points today, it did not lead to a recovery in all of Yen crosses. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY rallied, but EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY sold off. China eased monetary policy aggressively last night by cutting lending and deposits rates by 108bp, triggering a sharp selloff in the Japanese Yen. Toyota was also downgraded by Fitch ratings agency last night from AAA to AA, causing the Nikkei to drop more than 1 percent. This evening, we expect the release of the minutes from the most recent monetary policy meeting. Although it is unlikely that it will forecast any rate cuts for future meetings, it may provide some indication of new policy implementation the bank may use to recover from the economic recession. With the almost daily announcements of new economic bail-out and stimulus plans in other G7 countries, it is likely that the BoJ may be planning to take some similar action. Tomorrow holds another load of influential reports including CPI, House hold Spending, Retail Trade, and Industrial Production. Housing Starts are scheduled for Friday.

EUR/USD: Currency in Play for Next 24 Hours

EUR/USD will be the currency in play for the next 24 hours. German Unemployment numbers are expected at 3:55 am ET or 8:55 GMT, and Retail PMI is expected at 4:00 am ET or 9:00 GMT.

EUR/USD is barely hanging in the Bollinger Band buy zone. We are still on the heels of that decisive breakout of the consolidation period that held for several weeks. In the day’s to come we will be focused on trying to determine if this rally will gain new feet. Support for a downswing in the pair will be met with support at 1.2821. This level corresponds to today’s and yesterday’s lows, as well as highs made Novemebr 19th. For resistance, we had to compromise for two levels, each of which represent earlier highs. The 1.311 level is resistance one and corresponds with highs placed on Novemeber 5th, and 1.3296 will be resistance two and corresponds to a high on October 30th. Even though these are important levels, a breakout from the previous range-bound phase should see some more significant moves.

 

About The Author

Lien has extensive knowledge within the interbank market, particularly in trading spot FX and options. She has written for numerous publications, is frequently quoted on financial media outlets, and is the author of several books, including Millionaire Traders. Read more >>

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Kathy Lien will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Kathy Lien do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105