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Forex Blog - European market Update: USD softer on better UK and German data in session

Today 06:03am

European market Update: USD softer on better UK and German data in session


- (UK) Nov Nationwide House prices M/M: -0.4% v -1.7%e; Y/Y: -13.9% v -15.1%

- (GE) Oct ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.1% v 7.1%e

- (SP) Spain Oct Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -6.9% v -5.0%e; Retail sales Adj Y/Y: -8.0% v -6.7%e

- (SZ) Swiss Q3 Employment Level Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9%e; 3.96M v 3.92M prior

- (IT) Italy Nov Retailers' Confidence: 97.4 v 105.5 prior; Services Survey: -23 v -18 prior

- (HK) Oct Trade balance: -HK$14.3B v -HK$16.0B prior; Exports Y/Y: 9.4% v 0.3%e; Imports Y/Y: 11.3% v 1.0%e

- (SW) Swedish Oct Household lending Y/Y: 9.4% v 9.7% prior

- (GE) German Nov Unemployment Change: -10K v -5Ke; Unemployment rate: 7.5% v 7.5%e

- (NO) Norway Nov Unemployment Rate: 1.8% v 1.8%e

- (EU) Oct Euro-Zone M3 Y/Y: 8.7% v 8.1%e; M3 3-mth avg: 8.7% v 8.5%e

- (IT) Italy Hourly Wages M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.9%e

- (SA) S. Africa Oct PPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 14.5% v 14.5%e

- (EU) Nov Business Climate Indicator: -2.14 v -1.58e; Consumer Confidence: -25 v -25e; Economic Confidence: 74.9 v 78.0e; Industrial Confidence: -25 v -21e; Services Confidence: -12 v -8e

- (IT) Sept Large Company Employer Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.5% prior

- (RU)Russian Central Bank: Reserves stand at $449.9B v $453.5B w/w ( -$3.6B net loss)

- (UK) Reportedly Nov Economic sentiment 61.6; all-time low


- In equities: Enel [ENEL.IT] Japan's Sharp confirmed press reports of JV with Enel over solar venture. Sharp will spend ¥100B over 3-years on solar power development. Initial plant construction will have capacity of 480MW per year output by 2010. Sharp to hold 66% of venture and ENEL to hold 34% stake || Electricite de France [EDF.FR] Announced the commissioning of the Campidano wind farm in Sardinia. With 70 MW in installed capacity, this wind farm is equipped with 35 Vestas V90 wind turbines. || Natixis [KN.FR] Reportedly informs bidders that it will not sell its insurance unit according to Les Echos || Air Berlin [AB1.GE] Reported Q3 Net €45.6M compared to estimates of €41M. It EBIT came in at €89.1M above estimates of €48.0M and revenues were €1.06B versus €1.03B consensus. -The company Sees a positive operating income for current FY || UBS [UBSN.SZ] Chairman stated that turbulence in financial markets had continued to increase dramatically since the start of Oct . he noted that the bank had no choice but to accept government aid and deemed the move as a preemptive measure. The Swiss Gov't aid package would reduce uncertainty and boost confidence in bank. Has reduced the banks balance sheet by nearly CHF800B and cut back on its risk positions || Kingfisher [KGF.UK] Reported Q3 Net of £176M and Rev of£2.55B. its Q3 SSS were down 5.1% y/y . Company noted that Consumer confidence clearly shaken || Nothumbrian [NWG.UK] Reported H1 Net loss £64.5M compared to a profit £98.1M year-ago. Revenues came in at £347.7M versus £333.8M y/y. the company noted that it has sufficient funding through the year 2011 || Tui Travel [TT.UK] Reports FY Pre items of £319.7M just above estimates of £315M. Revenues came in at £13.9B above consensus of £13.15B. It notd that trading was in line with recent forecasts and added that the winter trading was progressing well the average selling prices . || Home Retail [HOME.UK] Acquired the Alba and Bush trademarks for £15.3M || Pennon Group [PNN.UK] Reported H1 underlying profit of £136.8M, up 9.8% y/y . Group noted it was well funded with cash balances of £306m at 30 September. It gained a £100m in additional facility from the EIB for SWW secured in November. Group businesses well positioned in the current economic slow-down || Logica [LOG.UK] Reported a new €500M medium term banking facility with the facilities maturing in 2011 and 2013 Air Berlin [AB1.GE] Reported Q3 Net €45.6M above estimates of €41M. Revenues were€1.06B roughly in-line with estimates of €1.03B. The CFO noted that it saw positive operating income for current FY and considering debt reduction measures with a targeted net debt below €500M by end 2008. It was Proposing selling aircraft and part of the company to raise cash || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] German Lower Saxony court upheld the 20% blocking rights in firms charter. Porsche [POR3.GE] stated that they did not understand German court ruling and would appeal || Antofagasta [ANTO.UK] Reported 9-month EBITDA of $2.22B compared to year-ago levels of $2.15B. Revenues were $3.31B versus $2.84B y/y. || Banco Popular [POP.SP] CEO stated that the bank has entirely ruled out capital increase

- Speakers: BoE Blanchflower: BoE now reacting to economic events and noted that that earlier rate cuts would have helped. Senses that everyone now understands the problem in the economy and added that earlier action would have placed BOE ahead of events. || BoE Besley stated that recent events did not undermine the case for CPI targeting and noted that house pricing services were not measured in price indexes. He noted that the UK and other countries needed to rebalance economies. Must address the overly cautious bank lending environment and look at both price and quality of credit. He added that monetary policy effectiveness has been impaired and that an orderly deleveraging was priority for banking sector. Lastly monetary policy was not the correct way to deal with asset bubbles || EU's Almunia: Reiterates that downside economic risks are materializing and added that the crisi may not end in 2009. Estimates need to be revised to show negative growth. || China's Stat Office noted that it would further stabilize the Yuan currency and lower expectations for CNY appreciation. To emphasis stable Yuan in talks with the US next week and noted that it sought to Lower expectations on Yuan appreciation. The office added that it expected steady, relatively fast growth in 2009 || Germany's labor min stated that Mounting recession to hit labor market soon || Spanish Econ Min Solbes: Spanish room for fiscal stimulus has been reduced || German HDE Retail Assoc: See Christmas sales growing nominally by 1% y/y. Confirmed 2008 nominal sales growth of 1.5% || Danish Econ Council: Economy is headed for hard landing and sees negative GDP growth in both 2009 and 2010.

- In Currencies: In currencies, the USD was softer during the European morning. With dealer noting that the U.S. holiday and month-end would likely suppress trading conditions for the remainder of the week.

The EUR/USD holding above the 1.29 level as better than expected German unemployment and a surprisingly strong M3 number providing some positive bias for the euro in the session. The GBP's tone remained constructive as it approached the 1.55 handle. Nationwide house prices were down 0.4% m/m, which was better than expected.

- U.S. 10-year yields continue to hover around 50-year lows under 3% level, reflective of safe haven demand for Treasuries and restrained inflationary expectations.

- In Energy: TNK-BP [TNBP.RU] Considering cutting downstream staff by 15% (Company employs 70K persons, unclear how many are in downstream operations) || UN Atomic Agency reiterated its call for access to Syrian facility. The IAEA last visited the site at al-Kibar back in June, 2008. recalled that back on Oct 4th Syria's nuclear program chief denied IAEA inspectors access.

*** NOTES ***

- US markets are closed for the Thanksgiving day holiday.


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