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Friday November 28, 2008 - 00:24:08 GMT
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Forex Market News - Morning Report

Morning Report Friday 28 November 2008


News and views

There was no market-moving news last night, and the US had their Thanksgiving holiday which deprived global markets from any clues regarding short-term direction.


NZD: Stable in a narrow 55 to 55.5 cent range yesterday, sellers attempted pushing it lower when Europe opened, but the dip to 0.5464 only lasted an hour. It is back to the upper end of yesterday’s range, at 0.5540. Yesterday’s main release, the business confidence survey, surprised by falling again to -43%; New Zealand’s real economy is now starting to feel the effects of the global crisis. A quiet day in the interest rate markets, apart from the Government bond tender which was well received.


The AUD trended upwards in a 65 to 66 cent range last night, and currently sits at the upper end. It outperformed the NZD in Europe, the cross rate now at 1.19.


A range of European economic sentiment indicators was released last night, mostly negative, which failed to dampen the cautious optimism regarding the EUR, but kept it confined to a sideways trajectory along the 1.29 level.  USD/JPY only managed a 0.5 Yen range, and is stable at 95.40. It too received a raftof negative indicators yesterday.


No US data due to Thanksgiving holiday.


German unemployment fell 10k in November, leaving the unemployment rate at 7.5%. The labour market is a lagging indicator, and the effects of slowing growth are likely to see jobless numbers climb next year.


Eurozone confidence surveys were mostly weaker again in November. Overall economic sentiment fell from 80.0 to 74.9, worse than expected and closing in on the record low of 73.0 recorded in 1993. Consumer sentiment was unchanged at -25 as lower fuel prices improved consumers’ purchasing power, but industrial sentiment fell further from -18 to -25 and services sentiment dropped from -7 to -12.


Eurozone money supply growth held steady at 8.7% yr, against expectations of a marked slowdown. Risk aversion and demand for liquidity are likely to be holding up growth, as investors sell out of other assets and move into cash and liquid assets that are included in the M3 measure. The growth rate of lending to households slowed further to 3.3% yr.


The Nationwide UK house price index fell 0.4% in November, less than expected, which saw the annual rate of decline ease slightly to 13.9%. Nationwide warned that UK house prices could fall another 15% over the next year, and that the mortgage market will shrink by 80 percent this year.



The positive short-term tone in NZD remains, with 0.5480 to 0.5550 likely to hold today. Yesterday’s US Thanksgiving holiday will result in a very quiet day for New Zealand’s markets



Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

28 Nov NZ Oct Building Consents s.a. 8.4% –7.6%

Aus Oct Private Credit 0.7% 0.5%

Jpn Nov Nomura/JMMA PMI 42.2 –

Oct Jobless Rates 4.0% 4.2%

Oct Household Spend %yr –2.3% –3.5%

Nov Tokyo CPI %yr 1.2% 1.1%

Oct National CPI %yr 2.1% 1.7%

Oct Industrial Prodn %mth 1.1% –2.5%

Oct Retail Trade %yr –0.4% –1.0%

Nov Small Bus Confidence 37.6 –

Oct Construction Orders %yr 10.3% –

Eur Nov CPI Flash %yr 3.2% 2.7%

Oct Unemployment Rate % 7.5% 7.6%

UK Nov GfK Consumer Confidence –36 –36

Nov CBI Distrib Trades Survey –27 –35

Can Q3 Current Account C$bn 6.8 5.2

Oct Industrial Product Prices –1.2% –2.2%

1 Dec Aus Q3 Company Profits 14.3% 5.5%

Nov MI-TD Inflation Gauge –0.2% –

US Nov ISM Manufacturing 38.9 38.2




Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



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