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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Euro-Zone CPI data paves way for possible aggressive ECB rate cut; Russia Central bank acts to stem capital flight

Today 06:01am
European Market Update: Euro-Zone CPI data paves way for possible aggressive ECB rate cut; Russia Central bank acts to stem capital flight


- (RU) Russian Central Bank raises its Refinancing rate by 100bps to 13%; cites risk out capital outflows

- (IN) India Q3 GDP Y/Y: 7.6% v 7.2%e

- (FR) Oct Producer Prices M/M: -0.9% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 5.0%e

- (SP) Spain Nov Preliminary CPI-EU Harmonized: 2.4% v 2.7%e

- (SP) Spain Oct Current Account: -€ 8.5B v -€ 6.9B prior

- (SW) Swedish Q3 GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.3%e

- (SW) Swedish Q3 Current Account (SEK): 63.4 v 42.1 prior

- (SW) Swedish Oct Retail Sales M/M: -0.6% v -0.7%e ; Y/Y: =-.7% v 0.4%e

- (IT) Oct PPI M/M -1.5% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 6.0%e

- (NO) Norway Q3 Manufacturing Wage index Q/Q: 2.5% v 1.7% prior

- (PD) Polish Q3 GDP Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.6%e

- (IT) Nov Preliminary CPI (NIC Including Tobacco) M/M: -0.4% v -0.2%e ; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.9%e

- (IT) Nov Preliminary CPI (EU harmonized) M/M: -0.4% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.9%e

- (EU) Nov Euro-Zone CPI Estimate Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.4%e

- (EU) Oct Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.6%

- (SZ) Swiss Nov KOF Leading indicator: -0.5 v 0.20e; first negative reading since Jun 2005

- (UK) Nov CBI Distributive Trade report: -46 v -27 prior


-Equities: ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE] Reported FY Net €2.28B above estimates of €2.10B. Revenues were €53.4B in line with €53.33B estimates but added that revenues in 2009 would 'markedly decline'. Pledged to cut costs and net working capital. It reiterated its Mid-term goal of €4-5B Pretax remains in place. || STM Micro [STM.FR] STM.FR: Guided Q4 Revenues in a range of $2.2-2.35B below the consensus estimates of $2.54B. || AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] AZN.UK: Medimmune unit received a FDA complete response letter on Motavizumab. Medimmune did not foresee need for more trials and planed to resubmit in H2 2009 || Metso [MEO1V.FH] Discontinued its study on Structural Options but will continue to look for value enhancing opportunities. Company citied the significant change in the global economic outlook as the reason behind the discontinuation.|| Deutsche Telekom [DTE.GE] In agreement with Workers Council regarding service center reductions and noted that the number of German centers would be cut by 33% || Vodafone [VOD.UK: awarded a 35MHZ 3G license in Turkey for €250M || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] German Bundesrat (Upper House) approved Government's Volkswagen Law || Bulgari [BUL.IT: CEO bluntly stated that its Oct sales data was bad and that November was not going well either adding that Japan was not performing well. || Deutsche Postbank [DPB.GE] Completed its €1B capital increase after selling 54.8M shares at €18.25/shr ||

- Speakers: EU report stated that the Baltic region faced a protracted and painful recession and warned that a risk of inter-Baltic contagion existed || Indian Chief Econ Advisor stated that he expected to see FY2008 GDP growth of 7.5-8% and that investment would remain buoyant in H2. || Polish Central Banker Filar stated that its GDP data showed that the Polish economy was resilient to external problems. He added that the Recent data now question the possibility of a rate cut in December and that inflationary threats remain. || (PD) Polish Central Banker Noga stated that he saw Q4 GDP growth at 3.1%

- In Currencies: The USD recovered from earlier losses against the European pairs as the morning progressed. Reportedly the Russian Central Bank conducted an additional Rouble basket widening but this unconfirmed at the time of publishing this TTN update. However, Kremlin Aide commented that Russia would take measures against those banks that bet on a Rouble devaluation. The surprise Russia Central Bank Refinancing Rate increase citing risk of capital flight sent the USD towards its best level in the session.

- Fixed Income: BUNDS: 10-year Bund yield at 3.25%, lowest since oct 2005 - dealers

- Energy: OPEC Gen Sec noted that compliance with output cuts are 'reasonable'. Recall that on Thursday the Sec Gen noted that that Oil stocks were above 5-year historical average and that it needed to remove 100M barrels of stock to reach 52 days of inventory from the current level of 55 days|| Libya's Oil Min Ghanem stated that OPEC had all options, including output cut or maintaining current production level but first must assess compliance || Iran Oil Min stated that a range of $70-90 was necessary to drive future investment. The minister conceded that it was unlikely that any production cut would result at this week's emergency meeting in Cairo. || OPEC exports in the four weeks thru Dec 13 expected down 340K bpd according to a tanker tracker || Reportedly, govt will increase existing refined oil consumption tax to replace $24B of revenue from transport tolls


- The data from the emerging markets were refreshing and suggested that the developing economies are a bit more resilient than originally suggested from the impact of the global financial market crisis. Both India and Poland GDP data were above expectations. However, Russia's unexpected raising of its refinancing rate citing concerns over capital flight brought back a degree of risk aversion into the market. This move coming after an EU report expressed concerns over the Baltic region. Iceland amended its FX regulations to also address concerns over its capital flight. The Euro-Zone CPI data for November is likely to increase speculation of a more aggressive ECB rate move at its Dec 4th meeting. The EU CPI now at 2.1%, just above the target ceiling of 2.0%. OPEC Cairo meeting to take place over the weekend and appears that no change in the production quota would result, but the originally scheduled Dec meeting is expected to announce a fresh round of production cuts.

Looking Ahead:

7:00 (SA) S. Africa Oct Trade Balance (ZAR): Expected at -5.9B v -7.1B prior

8:30 (CA) Q3 Current Account: Expected at C$5.1B v C$6.8B prior

8:30 (CA) Oct Industrial Product Price M/M: Expected at -1.5% v -1.2% prior

8:30 (CA) Oct Raw material Price Index M/M: Expected at -7.8% v -7.2% prior

10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Overnight rate decision: Expected to leaves interest Rates steady at 8.25%

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