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Monday December 1, 2008 - 10:51:46 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: PMI Manufacturing continue to post record low readings; Global recession concerns set to unleash a rash of aggressive central bank rate cuts this week

Today 05:39am


European market Update: PMI Manufacturing continue to post record low
readings; Global recession concerns set to unleash a rash of aggressive
central bank rate cuts this week




*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (JP) BOJ to hold extraordinary policy meeting on Dec 2nd to discuss flexibility in funding

- (IN) India Oct Exports Y/Y: -12.1% v 10.4% prior; Imports Y/Y: 10.6% v 43.3% prior

- (GE) Oct Retail Sales M/M: -1.6% v 0.5%e; YoY: -1.5% v -0.3%e

- (SW) Swedish Swedbank PMI: 33.1 v 38.0e

- (SP) Spain Nov Manufacturing PMI: 29.4 v 34.6 prior; lowest reading on record

- (HK) Oct Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 0.3% v 3.4%e; Volume Y/Y: -4.3% v -0.8%e

- (SZ) Swiss Nov SVME Purchasing Managers Index: 35.2 v 45.6e, all-time low reading

- (IT) Nov PMI Manufacturing: 34.9 v 36.5e, lowest reading on record

- (FR) France Nov PMI Manufacturing: v 37.9e, lowest reading on record

- (GE) Nov PMI Manufacturing: 35.7 v 36.7e; lowest reading on record

- (EU) Nov Final PMI Manufacturing: 35.6 v 36.2e

- (NO) Norway Oct Retail Sales M/M: -0.9% v -0.5%e v; Y/Y: -0.5% v 0.7%e

- (UK) Oct Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 2.8% v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: 15.3% v 15.1% prior

- (UK) Oct Net Consumer Credit: £0.8B v £ 0.5Be; Net Lending: £ 0.5B v £ 1.8Be

- (UK) Oct Mortgage Approvals: 32K v 32Ke

- (UK) Nov PMI Manufacturing: 34.4 v 39.7e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

-
In equities: Aer linges [AERL.UK] 28% holder Ryanair offered to acquire
rest of company for €1.4/shr in cash and noted that the entities would
continue operating as separate companies || Wavecom [AVM.FR] AVM.FR:
Gemalto to withdraw, revise offer for company || Xstrata [XTA.UK} To
implement further Ferrochrome production cuts; Suspended an additional
5 furnaces, totaling 500K tons of capacity. Stated it woul not lay-off
workers || Land of leather [LAN.UK] Received several unsolicited
approaches but added that no certainty that offers will be forthcoming
|| St Ives [SIV.UK] Reported 13-week sales were up3% y/y, and that
results were in line with prior expectations || Balfour beatty [BBY.UK]
Announced the acquisition of Colledge Trundle and Hall for £2.85M in
cash || Bavarian Nordic [BAVA.DC] Reaffirmed its FY outlook was inline
with prior expectations || KPN [KPN.NV] Getronics unit to sell Verkoop
Business Solutions to Total Specific Solutions but no financial details
disclosed. It expected the sale to close in early 2009 || Merck KGAA
[MRK.GE] EU approved added Erbitux use in head and neck tumors
treatment || Repsol [REP.SP] Holder Saycr stated that it would continue
to negotiate sale of stake || Logica [LOG.UK] Awarded global IT
agreements with two Nordic multinationals || Aberdeen Asset Management
{AND.UK] Reported FY08 Adj Pretax £60.5M v £23.7M y/y, Rev £430.1M v
£347.8M y/y. AUM £111.1B v £95.3B || y/y. || X5 X 5 [FIVE.UK] Reported
Q3 Net loss $14.7M v loss $4.7Me, EBITDA $191M v $177.8Me, Rev $2.19B v
$2.18Be. || Sacyr [SYV.SP] Selling Itinere motorway unit to Citigroup
for €7.9B. forr 3.96/share. Details of sale to come in regulatory
filing not yet published. Saycr continuing to negotiate sale of stake.
|| Wavecom [AVM.FR] Gemalto to withdraw, revise offer for company.
Informed the French Financial Markets Authority (AMF) of its intent to
withdraw its offer for Wavecom or to adjust the terms of its offer if
the resolutions submitted to the Wavecom general shareholders meeting
of 8 December 2008

- Speakers: ECB's Orphanides stated that he
saw signs of longer economic slowdown within Euro-Zone taking place and
that the impact of global financial market crisis on real economy has
started to intensify. Lastly he added that he hopes worst was over for
financial market crisis || BoJ Gov Shirakawa: Carefully watching forex
market developments and impact on economy and reiterated G7 view that
sharp currency movements are undesirable. He noted some downward
pressure on economy could rise and that core CPI could fall temporarily
in FY09 || Former India's Fin Min Chidambaram: Reiterates 2008 GDP in
range of 7% to 8% || Polish Central Banker Filar stated that Polish
rate cuts would not help economy significantly and adde d that he saw
unemployment rising although not drastically. Polish ERM-2 without
political consensus is risky || Czech Central Bank Chief Tuma stated
that he did not expect any surprise interest rate cuts and added that
the central bank has some room to maneuver on its rate policy || China
PBOC spokesperson noted that its currency would continue to be reformed
and intent on bring stability to Yuan || German Chancellor Merkel
stated that Germany maintained every option open to combat global
economic crisis || Bank of Italy stated that its country's bank had net
sales Credit Default Swaps (CDS)s in H1 2008 valued at €9.6B

-
In Currencies: EUR/GBP cross was firmer by 150 pips. EU's Barroso said
the financial crisis has prompted UK officials to acknowledge the
merits of the Euro and those who mattered were thinking about adopting
the currency. The session saw a firmer JPY against the major pairs.
Risk aversion was one factor in the strengthen JPY. Dealers attributed
JPY strength to Japanese tax panel comments. Specifically Tax Panel
stated that Japan should not tax the income that companies earn
overseas and dealers saw the move encouraging firms to repatriate more
funds back to Japan and increase domestic capital spending. The BoJ
announced it would hold an emergency on Tuesday regarding corporate
funding issues and unlikely to cut their interest rates. BOJ
Gov Shirakawa stated earlier in the session that reducing rates closer
to zero could impede the flow of funds in the money market. || China's
CNY fell the most since a fixed exchange rate ended in 2005 on
speculation policy makers will seek a weaker currency

-In Fixed Income: The Dec Bund contract hit fresh contract highs of 122.00 as the European yield curves continued to steepen.

-
In Energy: The slowing global economy begs the question exactly how low
oil could go? How low can it go ? Opec surprisingly decides no cut.
Doesn't matter. They all cheat anyhow. || Sec Gen El-Badri stated that
OPEC would take 'action' at its December meeting in Algeria due to
oversupply. He reiterated that $75/bbl is 'reasonable' price at this
time and that OPEC was looking at $70-90/bbl range. Thus OPEC would cut
output at its December meeting ||

*** NOTES ***

- As
the month of December begins, the catalyst for market moving events
appears not to be in any holiday mood. On the data front the Euro-Zone
manufacturing PMI generally registered record lows for the series as
each country reported. There are a slew of central bank interest rate
decisions to occur this week with Australia, New Zealand, ECB and BOE
all expected to cut rates as the global economy exhibits sign that the
real economy is being impacted from the financial market crisis. The
slowing global economy begs the question exactly how low oil could go?
Front month NYMEX crude futures down $2.50 per barrel to $51.90 area
ahead of the NY morning.

- Chatter circulating that the Chinese
central bank would hold a policy meeting this week and could seek a
weaker CNY currency as growth concerns mount. India's export fell on
month over month basis for the first time in seven years. An emergency
BOJ meeting was confirmed to discuss its country's corporate liquidity
needs. - Equity markets continue their volatility after displaying some
of its largest two and four day move in a generation. Year-end funding
and hedge fund redemption concerns will be of key interest. Dealer
chatter circulating that Paul Tudor Jones has suspended withdrawals at
its main fund in a restructuring move.

- The political tensions appear to be rising between India and Pakistan following the terror attacks in Mumbai last week

Looking Ahead:

- 8:00 (BR) Nov Brazil Trade Balance: $1.17Be v $1.21B prior

- 8:30 (CA) Sept GDP M/M: 0.2%e v -0.3% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Q3 GDP Annualized: 1.1%e v 0.3% prior

- 10:00 (US) Nov ISM Manufacturing: 37.0e v 38.9 prior; Prices Paid: 32.0e v 37.0 prior

- 10:00 (US) Oct Construction Spending M/M: -1.0%e v -0.3% prior

v -0.3% prior




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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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