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Tuesday December 2, 2008 - 11:13:16 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Competitive devaluation concerns rise in currencies; Equities recover from opening level weakness on vague chatter that US Treasury has 'secured' additional capita

Today 06:08am

European Market Update: Competitive devaluation concerns rise in currencies; Equities recover from opening level weakness on vague chatter that US Treasury has 'secured' additional capital to inject into banks

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

(JP) BOJ keeps interest unchanged at 0.3%, as expected; To accept wider range of collateral for money market operations

- (NO) Norway Q4 Consumer Confidence: -13.3 v 5.5e

- (SZ) Swiss Nov CPI M/M: -0.7% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.0%e

- (BZ) Brazil Nov FIPE CPI - Monthly: 0.39% v 0.50%e;

- (SP) Spanish Unemployment Rate: 171.2K v 170ke

- (UK) Nov PMI Construction: 31.8 v 33.5e, lowest reading on record

- (EU) Euro-Zone Oct PPI M/M: -0.8% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.3% v 7.0%e

- (BZ) Brazil Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.8% v 3.5%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v 0.0%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

-Equities: Swiss Life [SLHN.SZ] Provided interim management statement in which it announced that it would focus on international life and pension market. It stated that it reduced its balance sheet risk and would publish new targets at end of Q1. The company reiterated it would not reach its previously announced 2008 or 2009 targets but assured its liquidity position was comfortable. Its AWD Unit targeted sales of €1B by 2012 and an EBIT of €130M by the same period.|| BMW [BMW.GE] Names Friedrich Eichiner as CFO, effective immediately || Euler Hermes [ELE.FR] Revised its FY08 Net forecast to €100-110M versus consens estimates of €197.3M. It cited that its current environment was deteriorating|| GDF Suez [GSZ.FR] CEO stated that future projects could be delayed due to current financial conditions and cited the difficulty in obtaining credit. He added that the environment was not changing plans to invest €30B over three years

|| Intertek [ITRK.UK] Acquired Eko-laboratory for PLN15.1M (£3.3M) || Vedanta [VED.UK] Announced $250M share buyback (10% of the market cap) || Tesco [TSCO.UK] Reported Q3 UK SSS ex gas +2% v +1.6%e; maintaining strong businesses. Company stated it would cut CAPEX below £4B in 2009. It noted that the firm could comfortably cover financing needs in 2009 adding that ther are no significant bond maturities in that time frame. It remained on track for substantial program of international openings. The CFO noted that good volume growth has been seen; discount brands have driven deflation into industry. The executive noted that customers have been very cautious since Sept || Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] Reported FY08 Op Profit £365.9M versus estimates of £391.1M. It revenues wrere £8.8B below the consensus estimates £10.44B. The CEO noted that current trading is in line with our expectations. Recent research and the high load factors we are currently experiencing give us confidence that consumers remain intent on taking their holidays. || Game Group [GMG.UK] Reported YTD (44 week) Revenues were up27.4% y/y, while like-for-like sales were 11.2% higer compared to levels a year ago. || Alcatel [ALU.FR] Signed contract for modernization projects of CDMA network with China Telecom valued at €230M || Wavecom [AVM.FR] Sierra Wireless Agreed to Acquire Wavecom in Friendly Deal with an all cash offer of €8.50 per ordinary share of Wavecom || Man Group [EMG.UK] CEO stated that he expected current volatility levels to remain high and added that the future looked 'quite bleak' for some fund-of-funds. He did see capital returning to hedge funds beginning in Q2 2009 but the industry would manage less money in 2009 compared to levels a year ago. Bank deleveraging continues to be largest driver of equity declines

- Speakers: BOJ's Shirakawa stated that the BOJ was mindful of risks of additional rate cuts which could hinder money markets but added that the Japan financial markets were more stable relative to those in the US and Europe. The decline in economic conditions are less severe compared to the Asian crisis of 1997-98 period. He anticipated BOJ ability to provide ¥3T in new commercial paper operations by end 2008 and noted the new measures would help corporate financing as financial conditions have become less accommodative. Thus new measures announced at BOJ meeting earlier today will increase market liquidity. The BOJ wouldl watch Dec. Tankan and market response as indicator of economy's performance|| German Fin Min Steinbrueck stated that the Euro Zone economy was 'in recession, not poised for collapse'. He did note that mistrust remains dominant between banks. || Norges Bank stated that it would continue its extraordinary measures and noted that the outlook for financial stability has deteriorated. The central bank added that financial uncertainty remained unusually high and that tighter bank credit could worsen economic downturn ||Thai Court reportedly says that the ruling PPP party is dissolved. The PPP is the party of the PM. || Swedish Fin Min noted that its domestic economy is on course for difficult time and that the EU needs to restore credit channels || Swedish Fin Min Borg noted that domestic economy was on course for difficult times and that the EU needed to restore credit channels and rethink guarantees.

- In Currencies: Initially euro crosses adding weight on the USD pairings. EUR/USD tested 1.2565 area after European indices followed the Asian market lower. U.S. equity market futures were also in the red early on, but have since recovered losses to trade highs on vague chatter that the US tsy may have 'secured' additional funding to inject into banks. EUR/USD recovered the 1.2670 level. The CNY weakened foir a second straight session against the USD prompting speculation that the PBoC might have amended its currency stance. However, unconfirmed Chinese sources stated that the recent Yuan FX weakness was not a shift in the policy and that currency stability was needed during times of potential global recession. Dealers noting that US Tsy Sec Paulson will visit Beijing later this week and he will make the case for a strong CNY. UK press all over the recent speculation that the UK might re-join the EMU. The Telegraph summed it up as best to leave the Euro currency to its own devices and that joining the Euro would make the UK situation worse. Dealer chatter of notable knock-out optiuon building in the USD/JPY at the 90.00 level.

- Fixed Income: Early strength in Bunds saw yields on comparable Italian BTP and French OAT's reaching their widest levels over Bunds since 1999. In Gilts, the 2y (1.943%) and 5y (2.964%) were at hit their lowest yields since 1992 ahead of the supply. The UK sold £2.25B of the 4.25% 2049 Long Gilts, with an avg yield 4.74%, and a healthy bid-to-cover of 2.12

- Energy: Russia Oil Min: Russia Nov oil exports fell to 3.70M bpd v 4.21M bpd m/m || Iran to reportedly hold a naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman starting on Tuesday

- Commodities: pressure on commodities continued during the early portion of the European morning as NYMEX crude tested $47.50 and gold dipped towards the $760/oz area. Weakness was attributed to comments made on Monday that 'confirmation' that the U.S. first entered a recession back in December 2007. Commodities were edging towards the upper end of the session range as equity markets rebounded from opening level lows.

- Credit Crisis: WSJ reported that Goldman is now likely to report a net loss of as much as $2B for its quarter ended Nov 28; The loss could be as much as $5.00/share || JP Morgan analysts note that European equities offer 'best potential in 2009' . The analyst noted that the 2009 US recession could be as severe as those of 1973-75 and 1980-82 periods. Lastly the analyst noted that next year could experience a deep global recession

***Notes***

- Equities rebounded from opening level lows in Europe. Some vague chatter circulating that US Tsy Sec Paulson had secured an additional $150B of capital to inject into banks. The Australian Central bank cut more than expected at its policy meeting with a 100bps move to 4.25% (75bps was expected). Market took notice of back-to-back daily limit declines in the Chinese currency rate (CNY). However, an unnamed source noted that the PBoC has not altered its policy at this time. However, Paulson will visit china later this week. Australia cut by 100bps, more than the 75bps expected. BOJ left rates unchanged at 0.3% in their emergency meeting but widened the range of accepted collateral for money market operations to ensure adequate liquidity needs into calendar and fiscal year end.

- Looking Ahead:

- 8:30 (SI) Singapore Oct PMI. Consensus expectations are 44.0; The prior number was 45.8.

- (US) Nov Total Vehicle Sales. Consensus expectations are 10.5M; The prior number was 10.6M.

Speakers

- 11:30 (US) Treasury Sec Paulson to speak in Washington on U.S- China Strategic Economic Dialogue

- 12:30 (US) Philadelphia Fed's Plosser to speak in Rochester

 

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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
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Mon 25 Dec
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