Friday December 17, 2004 - 01:34:07 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 17th December 2004 Price: ... 1.1572
Resistance: 1.1590 ... 1.1620 ... 1.1650 ... 1.1683
Support....: 1.1565 ... 1.1528 ... 1.1505 ... 1.1474
We look for a 1.1500-1.1600 range today
No additional losses seen yesterday and the reversal higher to 1.1620 tends to resemble a larger sideways consolidation. As such we feel the 1.1620 level will hold and the upside looks limited. Initially we look for a drift lower to the 1.1500-10 area from where a minor pullback can occur that has potential to the 1.1565-75 area but we feel this will be the limit. Thus a stronger bullish stance requires a break above this resistance area and then the 1.1620 high which would then imply follow-through to 1.1683 and possibly as high as 1.1727. Further resistance is found at 1.1768.
The sharp recovery to 1.1620 looks to have completed this section of the consolidation and thus we feel that early trading should allow a drift lower towards 1.1500-10. However, for the moment we feel this will hold and return price into a range with a peak at 1.1565-75. Thus only below 1.1500 suggests a direct attack on the next major support around 1.1435 which should hold. Only a move below would allow 1.1395 and possibly 1.1336.
Elliott Wave Comments:
December 16th 2004
Yesterday's losses confirm 1.1683 as a corrective peak although we do not consider this to have completed the entire Wave -iv- correction. Thus we look for 1.1300-45 to hold being 138.2% and 161.8% projections for a Wave c decline from 1.1683. Assuming this to be correct we could be looking at a Triangle or Flat correction and thus we should see a move back to the 1.1580 at least and possibly back to the 1.1683 high. Any earlier breach of 1.1299 would bring a greater risk that the downtrend has resumed and we would then expect to see continued losses down to 1.1100-50 at least.
December 17th 2004
The recovery from 1.1384 to 1.1620 was a perfect 61.8% projection of the prior Wave -a- rally. Thus this tends to imply a triangle structure and using the same projection ratio we would look for Wave -d- to reach the 1.1435 area. This should then spurn a reccovery in Wave -e- to complete the daily Wave -iv- and generate further downside to complete a Wave -v- lower.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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