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Wednesday December 3, 2008 - 10:42:39 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: December 3, 2008 Pre-New York Open
Pre-New York Open
- Financial markets are biding their time ahead of three key employment surveys from the U.S. today, Thursday and Friday. The ADP private employment survey is due at 13:15 GMT today. The ADP survey tends to be unreliable and recently has tended to overstate jobs. A decline of -198K is seen. The street estimate seems to encompass that bias with the consensus for the Friday non-farm payrolls figure a decline of -320K. Thursday will see the more up-to-date weekly new and continuing jobless claims. All these reports are expected to be weak and have impacted equity prices adversely this week.
- Far East bourses closed generally higher today. European exchanges are down, and the early call for the U.S. open is for a weaker start to trade.
- A slew of cetral bank poicy decisions are due in the next 24 hours or so. At 20:00 GMT, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut its cash rate target by -150bps to 5.00% from 6.50%. Additionally, significant rate cuts are expected from the ECB and BOE on Thursday. The BOE is expected to ease by another -100 bps and the ECB to cut by -75bps. There is a lot of room for error in the street forecasts.
- The PMI Service indices released for the E-Z and U.K. today were even weaker than forecast. The U.S. ISM Services PMI will be released at 15:00 GMT.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -115bps +6 bps. U.S. bond prices are weaker. E-Z bond prices are about steady.
- The USD is higher vs. the EUR, CHF and GBP from late Tuesday. The JPY has gained. The volatile commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are now weaker. Oil is about stead and below the pivotal $50 line. Gold is lower. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 19 Mar 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
Thu 22 Mar 2018
AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Mar 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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