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Wednesday December 3, 2008 - 14:39:27 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Oh Canada in a little trouble of late…

Key News
• Britain's services sector contracted at its fastest rate in at least 12 years, a closely-watched survey showed Wednesday, ratcheting up expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by a full percentage point on Thursday. (AP)
• The Australian economy grew at its slowest pace in eight years last quarter. (IHT)
Key Reports Due (WSJ):
7:00a.m. MBA Mortgage Application Survey for Nov 28: Previous: -2.1%.
8:30a.m. 3Q Productivity & Labor Costs, revised: Expected: +3.1%. Previous: +4.3%.
10:00a.m. Nov ISM Non-Mfg Index: Previous: 44.4.
10:35p.m. API Oil Industry Report for Nov 28
10:35p.m. US Energy Dept Oil Inventories for Nov 28
2:00p.m. Federal Reserve Beige Book

Tomorrow (Time GMT):

12/4/2008 12:00  UK  BOE ANNOUNCES RATES 2.50%  3.00%
12/4/2008 12:45  EU  ECB Announces Interest Rates 3.00%  3.25%

Quotable
"The world has run out of willing and creditworthy private borrowers. The spectacular collapse of the western financial system is a symptom of this big fact. In the short run, governments will replace private sectors as borrowers. But that cannot last for ever. In the long run, the global economy will have to rebalance. If the surplus countries do not expand domestic demand relative to potential output, the open world economy may even break down. As in the 1930s, this is now a real danger.”
        
       Martin Wolf

FX Trading – Oh Canada in a little trouble of late… 
Oh the Canadian dollar!  John Ross and I usually say: “They don’t call it the Loonie for nothing!”  And at times, after playing a setup in the Loonie where we felt some degree of confidence, and got crushed still, we add another moniker—Currency Assured Destruction.  I share this with you as a type of disclaimer, so to speak. 

The Canadian dollar is getting hit, and looks as though it will test its old high.  Politics seem one factor to blame, beside the fact that commodities aren’t helping.

 (Chart unavailable in text format.)

Our Wave Count Guess….Daily USDCAD:
 

(Chart unavailable in text format.)

And to the politics in Canada we reprint a note from a very smart Canadian friend of ours who has been on top of the global macro scene for many years:

“Jack - a coalition of three opposition parties, (*The Liberals under Stephan Dion who was about to be dumped as Liberal leader......a communist party, the NDP, headed by a power hungry dolt named Jack Layton....and also to include the Bloc Quebecois - whose sole mission is the breakup of Canada) want to bring down Harper at next no-confidence vote and they can........so maybe you and JR might want to keep an eye on the Loonie....we are in deep [do-do]....”

So, keep an eye on the Loonie!
--------------------------------
Another View: Are Stocks Due for Big Move Higher?

Another friend of ours from Canada, Yves Lamoureux, Investment Advisor for Blackmount Capital Inc., sent us this note and the corresponding chart below.  We thought you might be interested. 

From Panic buying to Manic selling

We had been very nervous back in 2007 about margin buying showing a great acceleration. We called the ballistic move up in borrowing to buy stocks a panic buying.

It became clear in 2000 that the start of unwinding of the margin would have great repercussion. So it is with this past experience that I approached 2007 with great prudence.  Knowing that the margin was even higher than the previous peak.  One would have to expect big carnage.

So it is today that we are  faced with a negative loop feedback.  Stocks are offering one of the best entry in the last 15 years and who is courageous enough to buy.
When all told that we are going into depression.

Once unwinding is done, I believe that the supply and velocity of money will overwhelm the system. I am looking at strong inflation that will again inflate bubbles vigourously. The secret is to find new ones rather than look at the past bubbles.

Equities still offer a better store of value in an inflationary environment.  Often 60% of the total return is derived by inflation. 

We face the best prospect in stocks in a while and few will answer the call.
I believe, as shown from the dot.com era, that a 50% take down of the total debt margin results in creating a bottom. We are therefore getting real close to this event.

 Bulls unite !

Disclaimer: opinions and projections contained are of the guestblog author and may not represent the views of , Blackmont Capital (BCI) or any other organization. The information contained herein is for information purposes only and this report is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities. Neither , BCI nor the author accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this report or its content. The comments and opinions expressed in this letter are the result of work done by Yves Lamoureux. They may differ from the opinion of Blackmont Capital Inc. ("BCI") and should not be considered as representative of BCI, belief, opinion, or recommendations. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by sources we believe to be reliable but we cannot represent that they are complete and accurate. This material is published for general information only. BCI assumes no liability for financial decisions based on this information. Readers should obtain professional advice before applying any ideas mentioned to their own personal situation to ensure their individual circumstances have been properly considered.  BCI is an independently owned subsidiary of CI Financial Income Fund. CI Financial is a Canadian owned diversified wealth management firm
 

(Chart unavailable in text format.)

Have a great trading day!

 Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital LLC

 

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