User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday December 3, 2008 - 19:43:26 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Thursday 4 December 2008


News and views

US equities held their ground last night, on more stimulatory noises from the Fed, who will buy USD500 billion of mortgage and agency debt. This sent US lending rates lower. The data was typically negative, ISM non-manufacturing employment hitting a record low, and a private forecaster, ADP, estimating the US lost 250,000 jobs in November – lower than the economist’s consensus. At the time of writing, both the Dow and the S&P500 have slipped to just under the previous close.


Last night, the NZD ranged between the short-term 0.5250 support and 0.5350 resistance levels we mentioned in yesterday’s report, and was expectedly lacklustre ahead of the RBNZ meeting at 9am this morning. It currently is at 0.5290.


A similar range for a subdued AUD, around 64 to 65 cents last night, they too aware of the potential impact of the pending RBNZ announcement, particularly on the AUD/NZD cross which has settled for now slightly above 1.21.


More negative data from Eurozone, PMI services lower than expected at 42.5, and retail sales at -2.1% yoy (-1.5% was expected), while the UK, a consumer confidence reading 50 was also below expectations. One positive was the UK’s announced plan to allow households to defer mortgage interest payments for 2 years. EUR and GBP sold off on the bad data, to around 1.26, and 1.49, currently higher at 1.2650 and 1.4730, respectively. USD/JPY has hardly budged from 93.


US ISM non-manufacturing drops from 44.4 to 37.3 in Nov, to its lowest since the survey’s inception in 1997. This provides yet more evidence that the modest contraction in economic growth reported for Q3 will deepen in Q4.


US ADP private payrolls down 250k in Nov. The sharp fall in the ADP measure of private payrolls for Nov represents a further serious downturn in this particular jobs indicator. Recently, ADP has on average reported a fall in non-government jobs about 110k less than the official BLS private payroll estimate. If that relationship were to hold in Friday’s report, Nov payrolls might be expected to fall by around 340k (–360k for private payrolls plus about 20k for government jobs which rarely fall). And –340k happens to be our longstanding forecast for Nov non-farm payrolls. Still on the labour market, corporate layoff announcements totalled 182k in November, up 148% compared to the same month last year. Unsurprisingly financial companies topped the list with 91k layoffs.


US Beige Book: weaker overall activity across the US. Economics activity has weakened across all 12 Fed districts, since early October, while price pressures have eased with the declines in retail and energy prices. Manufacturing activity declined noticeably. Labour markets weakened as firms in many districts reported accelerating layoffs, and wage pressures were largely subdued. Consumer spending slumped, with retail sales decreasing, and vehicle sales declining sharply in most regions. Housing markets remained weak, with sales down and selling prices lower in almost every region. Lending contracted and lending standards tightened. In summary, the report portrayed grim conditions in most areas of economic activity, and supports a 50bp cut at the 15-16 December meeting.


Euroland services PMI was revised down by a steep 0.8 pts to 42.5 in Nov, indicating even weaker mid-quarter services sector activity in Q4, following Q3’s consistently sluggish outcomes. This is a solid signal that Q3’s 0.2% GDP contraction will be followed by a steeper decline in the current quarter (we now expect –0.5%). Also, retail sales, already sluggish, lost more momentum in October, down 0.8%.


UK services PMI slumped to 40.1 in Nov, a fresh low in the twelve year history of the series. Along with very weak factory and construction PMIs, this confirms that the UK recession is deepening. We expect Q4 GDP to contract 1.0%, following Q3’s 0.5% fall. Also, consumer confidence fell to a record low (although the Nationwide index has only been surveyed since 2004) despite aggressive rate cuts from the Bank of England and falling petrol prices – people are more worried about the economic outlook and their job prospects. Also the BRC reported shop prices decelerating further to 2.7% yr in November.



While we maintain our weak bias for the NZD, today’s price action will be determined by the RBNZ’s OCR announcement at 9am. A 100bp rate cut will see NZD fall, likely through the 0.5250 support and target 0.5200, while a 150bp cut may see a small and temporary bounce, but ending the day largely neutral.


Events Today

Country Release Last Forecast

NZ RBNZ Monetary Policy Review 6.50% 5.50%

Aus Oct Trade Balance AUDbn 1.46 1.8

Oct Dwelling Approvals –7.2% –1.0%

US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 29/11 529k 544k

Oct Factory Orders –2.5% –7.0%

Nov Chain Store Sales %yr –0.9% –1.0%

Jpn Q3 Capital Spending %qtr –6.5% –9.8%

Eur Q3 GDP (Prelim) –0.2% a –0.2%

ECB Rate Decision 3.25% 2.50%

UK BoE Rate Decision 3.00% 2.00%

Can Oct Building Permits 13.4% –5.0%

Nov Ivey PMI 52.2 49.0


Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (1 December)

• RBNZ MPS Preview (28 November)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (24 November)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (17 November)

• NZ Q3 Retail Sales Review (13 November)

• NZ Economic Overview November 2008 (11 November)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (




Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105