held their ground last night, on more stimulatory noises from the Fed, who will
buy USD500 billion of mortgage and agency debt. This sent US lending rates
lower. The data was typically negative, ISM non-manufacturing employment
hitting a record low, and a private forecaster, ADP, estimating the US lost
250,000 jobs in November â€“ lower than the economistâ€™s consensus. At the time of
writing, both the Dow and the S&P500 have slipped to just under the
the NZD ranged between the short-term 0.5250 support
and 0.5350 resistance levels we mentioned in yesterdayâ€™s report, and was
expectedly lacklustre ahead of the RBNZ meeting at this
morning. It currently is at 0.5290.
range for a subdued AUD, around 64 to 65 cents last
night, they too aware of the potential impact of the pending RBNZ announcement,
particularly on the AUD/NZD cross which has settled for now slightly above
negative data from Eurozone, PMI services lower than expected at 42.5, and
retail sales at -2.1% yoy (-1.5% was expected), while the UK, a consumer
confidence reading 50 was also below expectations. One positive was the UKâ€™s announced
plan to allow households to defer mortgage interest payments for 2 years. EUR and GBP sold off on the
bad data, to around 1.26, and 1.49, currently higher at 1.2650 and 1.4730,
respectively. USD/JPY has hardly budged from 93.
non-manufacturing drops from 44.4 to 37.3 in Nov, to its
lowest since the surveyâ€™s inception in 1997. This provides yet more evidence
that the modest contraction in economic growth reported for Q3 will deepen in
ADP private payrolls down 250k in Nov. The sharp fall in the ADP measure
of private payrolls for Nov represents a further serious downturn in this particular
jobs indicator. Recently, ADP has on average reported a fall in non-government
jobs about 110k less than the official BLS private payroll estimate. If that
relationship were to hold in Fridayâ€™s report, Nov payrolls might be expected to
fall by around 340k (â€“360k for private payrolls plus about 20k for government
jobs which rarely fall). And â€“340k happens to be our longstanding forecast for
Nov non-farm payrolls. Still on the labour market, corporate layoff announcements
totalled 182k in November, up 148% compared to the same month last year.
Unsurprisingly financial companies topped the list with 91k layoffs.
Beige Book: weaker overall activity across the US. Economics
activity has weakened across all 12 Fed districts, since early October, while
price pressures have eased with the declines in retail and energy prices.
Manufacturing activity declined noticeably. Labour markets weakened as firms in
many districts reported accelerating layoffs, and wage pressures were largely
subdued. Consumer spending slumped, with retail sales decreasing, and vehicle
sales declining sharply in most regions. Housing markets remained weak, with sales
down and selling prices lower in almost every region. Lending contracted and
lending standards tightened. In summary, the report portrayed grim conditions
in most areas of economic activity, and supports a 50bp cut at the 15-16
services PMI was revised down by a steep 0.8 pts to 42.5 in Nov, indicating even
weaker mid-quarter services sector activity in Q4, following Q3â€™s consistently
sluggish outcomes. This is a solid signal that Q3â€™s 0.2% GDP contraction will
be followed by a steeper decline in the current quarter (we now expect â€“0.5%).
Also, retail sales, already sluggish, lost more momentum in October, down 0.8%.
services PMI slumped to 40.1 in Nov, a fresh low in the twelve year history of
the series. Along with very weak factory and construction PMIs, this confirms
that the UK recession
is deepening. We expect Q4 GDP to contract 1.0%, following Q3â€™s 0.5% fall. Also,
consumer confidence fell to a record low (although the Nationwide index has
only been surveyed since 2004) despite aggressive rate cuts from the Bank of
England and falling petrol prices â€“ people are more worried about the economic
outlook and their job prospects. Also the BRC reported shop prices decelerating
further to 2.7% yr in November.
maintain our weak bias for the NZD, todayâ€™s price action will be determined by the
RBNZâ€™s OCR announcement at . A 100bp
rate cut will see NZD fall, likely through the 0.5250 support and target
0.5200, while a 150bp cut may see a small and temporary bounce, but ending the
day largely neutral.
Release Last Forecast
Monetary Policy Review 6.50% 5.50%
Aus Oct Trade
Balance AUDbn 1.46 1.8
Approvals â€“7.2% â€“1.0%
Jobless Claims w/e 29/11 529k 544k
Orders â€“2.5% â€“7.0%
Store Sales %yr â€“0.9% â€“1.0%
Capital Spending %qtr â€“6.5% â€“9.8%
Eur Q3 GDP
(Prelim) â€“0.2% a â€“0.2%
Decision 3.25% 2.50%
UK BoE Rate
Decision 3.00% 2.00%
Can OctBuilding Permits
Nov Ivey PMI
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (1 December)
â€¢ RBNZ MPS
Preview (28 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (24 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (17 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3
Retail Sales Review (13 November)
Economic Overview November 2008 (11 November)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.