held their ground last night, on more stimulatory noises from the Fed, who will
buy USD500 billion of mortgage and agency debt. This sent US lending rates
lower. The data was typically negative, ISM non-manufacturing employment
hitting a record low, and a private forecaster, ADP, estimating the US lost
250,000 jobs in November â€“ lower than the economistâ€™s consensus. At the time of
writing, both the Dow and the S&P500 have slipped to just under the
the NZD ranged between the short-term 0.5250 support
and 0.5350 resistance levels we mentioned in yesterdayâ€™s report, and was
expectedly lacklustre ahead of the RBNZ meeting at this
morning. It currently is at 0.5290.
range for a subdued AUD, around 64 to 65 cents last
night, they too aware of the potential impact of the pending RBNZ announcement,
particularly on the AUD/NZD cross which has settled for now slightly above
negative data from Eurozone, PMI services lower than expected at 42.5, and
retail sales at -2.1% yoy (-1.5% was expected), while the UK, a consumer
confidence reading 50 was also below expectations. One positive was the UKâ€™s announced
plan to allow households to defer mortgage interest payments for 2 years. EUR and GBP sold off on the
bad data, to around 1.26, and 1.49, currently higher at 1.2650 and 1.4730,
respectively. USD/JPY has hardly budged from 93.
non-manufacturing drops from 44.4 to 37.3 in Nov, to its
lowest since the surveyâ€™s inception in 1997. This provides yet more evidence
that the modest contraction in economic growth reported for Q3 will deepen in
ADP private payrolls down 250k in Nov. The sharp fall in the ADP measure
of private payrolls for Nov represents a further serious downturn in this particular
jobs indicator. Recently, ADP has on average reported a fall in non-government
jobs about 110k less than the official BLS private payroll estimate. If that
relationship were to hold in Fridayâ€™s report, Nov payrolls might be expected to
fall by around 340k (â€“360k for private payrolls plus about 20k for government
jobs which rarely fall). And â€“340k happens to be our longstanding forecast for
Nov non-farm payrolls. Still on the labour market, corporate layoff announcements
totalled 182k in November, up 148% compared to the same month last year.
Unsurprisingly financial companies topped the list with 91k layoffs.
Beige Book: weaker overall activity across the US. Economics
activity has weakened across all 12 Fed districts, since early October, while
price pressures have eased with the declines in retail and energy prices.
Manufacturing activity declined noticeably. Labour markets weakened as firms in
many districts reported accelerating layoffs, and wage pressures were largely
subdued. Consumer spending slumped, with retail sales decreasing, and vehicle
sales declining sharply in most regions. Housing markets remained weak, with sales
down and selling prices lower in almost every region. Lending contracted and
lending standards tightened. In summary, the report portrayed grim conditions
in most areas of economic activity, and supports a 50bp cut at the 15-16
services PMI was revised down by a steep 0.8 pts to 42.5 in Nov, indicating even
weaker mid-quarter services sector activity in Q4, following Q3â€™s consistently
sluggish outcomes. This is a solid signal that Q3â€™s 0.2% GDP contraction will
be followed by a steeper decline in the current quarter (we now expect â€“0.5%).
Also, retail sales, already sluggish, lost more momentum in October, down 0.8%.
services PMI slumped to 40.1 in Nov, a fresh low in the twelve year history of
the series. Along with very weak factory and construction PMIs, this confirms
that the UK recession
is deepening. We expect Q4 GDP to contract 1.0%, following Q3â€™s 0.5% fall. Also,
consumer confidence fell to a record low (although the Nationwide index has
only been surveyed since 2004) despite aggressive rate cuts from the Bank of
England and falling petrol prices â€“ people are more worried about the economic
outlook and their job prospects. Also the BRC reported shop prices decelerating
further to 2.7% yr in November.
maintain our weak bias for the NZD, todayâ€™s price action will be determined by the
RBNZâ€™s OCR announcement at . A 100bp
rate cut will see NZD fall, likely through the 0.5250 support and target
0.5200, while a 150bp cut may see a small and temporary bounce, but ending the
day largely neutral.
Release Last Forecast
Monetary Policy Review 6.50% 5.50%
Aus Oct Trade
Balance AUDbn 1.46 1.8
Approvals â€“7.2% â€“1.0%
Jobless Claims w/e 29/11 529k 544k
Orders â€“2.5% â€“7.0%
Store Sales %yr â€“0.9% â€“1.0%
Capital Spending %qtr â€“6.5% â€“9.8%
Eur Q3 GDP
(Prelim) â€“0.2% a â€“0.2%
Decision 3.25% 2.50%
UK BoE Rate
Decision 3.00% 2.00%
Can OctBuilding Permits
Nov Ivey PMI
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (1 December)
â€¢ RBNZ MPS
Preview (28 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (24 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (17 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3
Retail Sales Review (13 November)
Economic Overview November 2008 (11 November)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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